Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Lincoln, IL

151 
WGUS73 KILX 191913
FFSILX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
213 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

ILC169-191923-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190619T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Schuyler-
213 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SCHUYLER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4029 9091 4027 9045 4019 9044 4000 9049
      3998 9052 3998 9060 4002 9062 4003 9061
      4002 9063 4005 9068 4008 9067 4008 9070
      4010 9070 4011 9071 4011 9091

$$

Barnes

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Well another night of fighting the PoPs and QPF for the upcoming
system today. A weak Low pressure system is shifting through
northern Missouri this morning, and will continue to track ENE.
This will send the Low through north central Illinois today,
bringing yet again the chance for flash flooding to occur. In
collaboration with WPC overnight, a MDT flash flooding risk was
extended into the CWA along the I-70 corridor. This was due to
excessive rainfall the past couple of days in that region, leading
to lower FFG rates. Locations north of I-70 and south of I-72 will
be the main focus for today's heavy rainfall, therefore a new FFA
was issued to cover this area from 08z today through 18z Thursday.
I added a county buffer to the north end of the Watch, in case
there is a slight shift northward of the Low track.

Shower and storms are expected to slide into the area this
morning, with current radar indicating some development south of
the St. Louis metro. This band will track into southeastern
Illinois around 12z. However, the main show will not arrive until
midday, overspreading the CWA throughout the afternoon. Some
storms this afternoon/evening could become strong to severe, with
training expected as overall speed is slow. Models have good
agreement on the track through central Illinois, however they lack
confidence in the amount of precipitation. The NAM is the major
outlier, hinting at upwards of 4 inches of precip...while a
majority of the other models have 1.50-2.00 inches. The main axis
of rainfall will occur between I-70 and I-72, while locations
outside of this will range from 0.50-1.50 inches.

Clear skies in northern Illinois this morning will give way to
returning clouds through the morning, while southern Illinois will
remain mostly cloudy throughout today. Some warming will occur
today, as the stalled out frontal boundary shifted northward
during the evening and overnight. But along with this warming, dew
points will also increase into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Cooler temperatures will prevail today and Thursday, before a
warmup this weekend to more summer-like conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

As the Low pulls out of the area Thursday, rain will shift
eastward into the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. As this exits, a
Low pressure system in western Canada will drop into the northern
Rockies. As a result, a weather pattern will redevelop...bringing
the return of a building ridge to the area Thursday evening. Even
though a weak ridge, it will dry out the area Thursday night into
Friday morning.

Looking at the end of the work week and this upcoming weekend,
unfortunately the wet weather pattern remains. The Low will track
eastward through Canada, carrying another wave system through the
Plains Friday morning and into the Midwest Friday afternoon. This
system will not drop far enough into the US to bring a cold front
through the area. So again, heading through the weekend, the
system will drape a frontal boundary east-west across the area.
This will allow for another set of waves to ride along, bringing
more rain to the Midwest.

This weekend will feature a more summer-like pattern, with temps
in the 80s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s. Rainfall
totals this weekend have decreased, as values are from 0.75-2.50
inches. This is still preliminary, and expected to change over the
next 24-48 hours once models get through today's event.

Looking ahead to the CPC outlooks, precipitation is expected to
remain above average through the remainder of June, with normal to
slightly above normal temperatures around Illinois.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Primarily VFR conditions initially, although some brief pockets of
MVFR vsby in thin fog should diminish by 13Z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will steadily increase northeastward into
central IL this morning, and have incorporated VCSH into TAFs by
15-17Z and VCTS with MVFR cigs by 17-18Z. Brief IFR conditions and
strong gusty winds are possible with stronger storms, however
timing and location remain uncertain. After 00-02Z, thunderstorm
activity should diminish, however predominant rain will likely
continue much of the night with MVFR cigs and vsbys, likely
lowering to IFR cigs as rain ends toward 12Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ILZ042>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
448 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-201100-
Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Peoria-Schuyler-Stark-Tazewell-
Woodford-
448 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.
Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe.

Moderate flooding on the Illinois River will continue from Havana
downstream, while minor flooding continues for portions of the
river upstream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday through
Tuesday. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms Friday. It is
still too early to pinpoint any specific severe weather risks
during the weekend into next week. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible.

Moderate flooding on the Illinois River will continue from Havana
downstream, while minor flooding continues for portions of the
river upstream.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

ILZ042>057-061-201100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon-
Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Scott-Shelby-Vermilion-
448 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times, are expected today and
tonight. Thunderstorms may contain locally damaging winds and
hail, and will also pose a risk for localized flash flooding.

Moderate flooding on the Illinois River will continue.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night
through Tuesday. There is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms Friday night. It is still too early to pinpoint any
specific severe weather risks during the weekend into next week.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Moderate flooding on the Illinois River will continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into evening.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-201100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
448 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times, are expected today and
tonight. Thunderstorms may contain locally damaging winds and
hail, and will also pose a risk for localized flash flooding.

Minor flooding will continue on portions of the Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Embarras Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night
through Tuesday. There is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms Friday night. It is still too early to pinpoint any
specific severe weather risks during the weekend into next week.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Minor flooding will continue on portions of the Wabash, Little
Wabash, and Embarras Rivers for several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

37