Tornado Warning 40, NWS Wilmington, OH

585 
WWUS51 KILN 280339
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1139 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

OHC023-047-057-097-280415-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-190528T0415Z/
Fayette OH-Clark OH-Greene OH-Madison OH-
1139 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTH CENTRAL CLARK...EASTERN GREENE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...
    
At 1139 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Cedarville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. This storm has a history of 
         producing tornadoes.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Cedarville, Jamestown, Jeffersonville, Wilberforce, New Jasper, South
Solon, Clifton, Octa, Rosemoor, John Bryan State Park, Selma,
Gladstone, Bookwalter, Bell Center, Shady Grove and Interstate 71 at
US Route 35.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 62 and 67.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3964 8382 3970 8388 3982 8385 3979 8354
      3971 8352 3957 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 283DEG 31KT 3972 8382 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN

$$

Hatzos

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
846 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm front tonight,
keeping chances for storms in the forecast overnight. A few of
the storms could be strong to severe. Warm and humid conditions
and unsettled weather will be the rule for much of the week
with a chance of thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Supercells have developed across Northern Indiana in the
unstable airmass ahead of a mid level disturbance. This
will combine with a northward advancing warm front to support
the development of widespread thunderstorms over West Central
Ohio and the Miami Valley in the next 1 to 2 hours. These storms
will track quickly east and build south (into the more unstable
air) across portions of the Miami Valley and Central Ohio.

Bulk shear of 50 kts and favorable 0-1km helicity will offer
favorable conditions for supercells with the potential for
tornadoes as the storms are still surface based. Tornado watch
number 266 has been issued which includes ILN/s northern half
of the FA until 06Z.

Previous discussion...
Frontal boundary which stalled out near the Ohio River
overnight has begun to lift north to a current position from
Central Indiana thru Southwest Ohio. Thunderstorms were
beginning to develop in the return flow INVOF this front.

This initial convective activity to pivot northeast - with the
southeast end expected to weaken some as it they moves away
from the favorable genesis region.

Mid level shortwave evident on water vapor imagery over the Mid
MS VLY to track east thru the Great Lakes this evening. This
will aid the strengthening of the return flow with 45 to 50 kt
southwesterly jet nosing into West Central Ohio by early
evening.

Moderate instability develops in response to this flow with
mixed layer CAPES increasing to around 1500 J/KG. Axis of
storms to continue to develop late this aftn into this evening
the best focus over West Central Ohio this evening.

Bulk shear of 45-50 kts will support organized storms with
supercells likely. These rotating updrafts will enhance the
potential for large hail. Low level shear becomes favorable over
the northwest with 0-1km helicity values forecast to be above
300 m2/s2. So, the threat for tornadoes also exists. Per
collaboration with SPC the 5 percent tornado threat has been
extended across ILN/s northern counties tonight.

Isolated severe weather threat looks to begin as early as 5 pm
with the most favorable time for severe weather between 7 pm
and midnight. Eventually - expect individual storms to congeal
into a cold pool driven MCS that pivots thru ILN/s northeast
counties.

Have continued high pops this evening across the northwest
overnight across the north. Have also continued to message this
severe weather threat in the HWO and social media.

Mild lows overnight in the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge to extend into Ohio Valley keeping Northern
Kentucky warm and dry during the day Tuesday. Mid level energy
flattens as energy rides along the northern edge of the ridge.

The E-W oriented surface front will slip back to the south ILN/s
northern counties, offering a chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday
will be hot and humid with dewpoints in the upper 60s and high
temperatures generally in the mid and upper 80s. The exception
will be the far northwest - where clouds and pcpn may keep
temperatures in the lower 80s.

GFS pushes the front south to the Ohio River, while the NAM/ECMWF
stall the front across Central Ohio. Prefer this position
across Central Ohio. This will keep a chance of thunderstorms in
the forecast Tuesday night. Another mild night with Tuesdays
lows in the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active weather pattern will continue through the coming week.

The Ohio Valley will remain on the northern periphery of a mid-level
ridge through Thursday, with a surface boundary remaining in place
west-to-east somewhere across the northern half of the Ohio Valley.
One disturbance is expected to move through the area on Wednesday
afternoon, with a second entering the region on Thursday morning as
the ridge begins to flatten. To no surprise, chances for storms will
continue each day as these disturbances move through the area, with
the greatest chances likely on Thursday. Though the shortwave
leading to this activity may be de-amplifying to some degree, it
will still lead to likely precipitation chances for most of the
area. On both Wednesday and Thursday, with few changes to the
overall weather pattern, there should be sufficient weather and
shear to allow for at least some level of severe weather threat.

Beyond Thursday, there are timing differences in the models
regarding the progression of a secondary trough moving across the
Great Lakes, but ultimately a fair degree of agreement on a couple
of drier days as high pressure nudges in from the Great Lakes. Some
low-end precipitation chances will be kept in the forecast for
Friday and Saturday for now, with chances perhaps increasing later
in the weekend as another front moves south into the region.

With the frontal boundary still north of the area, Wednesday should
be the warmest day of the extended period, with some decrease in
temperatures expected from Thursday onward as the ridge and front
shift further to the south. However, temperatures are generally
expected to remain near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An embedded disturbance in the zonal flow aloft will combine
with an advancing warm front to bring showers and thunderstorms
to the northern terminals this evening into early morning. This
convection will also be aided by an increasing low level jet. Am
expecting convection between 02Z and 06Z with convection
tapering off thereafter as it moves east/southeast and the warm
front moves north of the terminals. Aviators can expect all
hazards with thunderstorms, with MVFR ceilings and IFR or LIFR
visibilities possible with the heavier rainfall. The low level
jet will bring a period of non-convective LLWS tonight to all
terminals. This should diminish toward 12Z as the core of the
low level jet pushes east and the atmosphere starts to couple
with diurnal heating.

On Tuesday, as a low pressure system passes by to the north
across the Great Lakes, a cold front will sag southeast back
into northern Indiana and northern Ohio. It appears that
diurnal convection with the front will mainly stay north of the
northern terminals, so have kept all terminals dry. With diurnal
heating/mixing and decent surface pressure gradient, winds will
increase from the west/southwest between 10 and 15 knots with
gusts between 20 and 30 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
424 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-281100-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Hocking-
424 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and increase in coverage
into this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the main severe weather threats, but an isolated
tornado can not be ruled out. In addition, heavy rain will be
possible which may lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible once again with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

INZ058-059-066-OHZ070>073-080-281100-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Highland-
424 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop into this evening.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main severe weather threats, but an isolated
tornado can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-082-088-281100-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
424 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     HAIL             5 SSE ARCANUM           39.93N 84.51W
05/27/2019  M1.00 INCH       DARKE              OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1055 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SE LEWISBURG          39.81N 84.50W
05/27/2019                   PREBLE             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIGHTED LOOKING WEST.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1102 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     TORNADO          5 WNW DOWNTOWN DAYTON   39.78N 84.28W
05/27/2019                   MONTGOMERY         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TORNADO ON GROUND LOOKING TO NORTH, HEADING EAST.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1106 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW ENGLEWOOD          39.85N 84.32W
05/27/2019                   MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN UNION ROAD AND STATE ROUTE 49 IN
            CLAYTON. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

JOHNF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1114 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     TORNADO          3 N DOWNTOWN DAYTON     39.80N 84.19W
05/27/2019                   MONTGOMERY         OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TORNADO ON GROUND SEEN TO NORTH.

&&

CH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1116 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TORNADO          4 W WAPAKONETA          40.56N 84.26W
05/27/2019                   AUGLAIZE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSE SEVERELY DAMAGED ON COUNTY ROAD 33A AND
            KETTLERSVILLE ROAD. BARN MOVED 1/8 MILE.

&&

JOHNF