River Flood Advisory 13, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
147 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions and unsettled weather will be the
rule for much of the week with a chance of thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Majority of thunderstorms have moved east of the region, but a
few tornadic cells remain. They all should be east of the fa in
the next hour or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level ridge to extend into Ohio Valley keeping Northern
Kentucky warm and dry during the day Tuesday. Mid level energy
flattens as energy rides along the northern edge of the ridge.

The E-W oriented surface front will slip back to the south ILN/s
northern counties, offering a chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday
will be hot and humid with dewpoints in the upper 60s and high
temperatures generally in the mid and upper 80s. The exception
will be the far northwest - where clouds and pcpn may keep
temperatures in the lower 80s.

GFS pushes the front south to the Ohio River, while the NAM/ECMWF
stall the front across Central Ohio. Prefer this position
across Central Ohio. This will keep a chance of thunderstorms in
the forecast Tuesday night. Another mild night with Tuesdays
lows in the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active weather pattern will continue through the coming week.

The Ohio Valley will remain on the northern periphery of a mid-level
ridge through Thursday, with a surface boundary remaining in place
west-to-east somewhere across the northern half of the Ohio Valley.
One disturbance is expected to move through the area on Wednesday
afternoon, with a second entering the region on Thursday morning as
the ridge begins to flatten. To no surprise, chances for storms will
continue each day as these disturbances move through the area, with
the greatest chances likely on Thursday. Though the shortwave
leading to this activity may be de-amplifying to some degree,
it will still lead to likely precipitation chances for most of
the area. On both Wednesday and Thursday, with few changes to
the overall weather pattern, there should be sufficient weather
and shear to allow for at least some level of severe weather
threat.

Beyond Thursday, there are timing differences in the models
regarding the progression of a secondary trough moving across the
Great Lakes, but ultimately a fair degree of agreement on a couple
of drier days as high pressure nudges in from the Great Lakes. Some
low-end precipitation chances will be kept in the forecast for
Friday and Saturday for now, with chances perhaps increasing later
in the weekend as another front moves south into the region.

With the frontal boundary still north of the area, Wednesday should
be the warmest day of the extended period, with some decrease in
temperatures expected from Thursday onward as the ridge and front
shift further to the south. However, temperatures are generally
expected to remain near to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strongest thunderstorms have moved east of the tafs for the
night. A few showers will be possible near CMH/LCK for the first
few hours of the taf period. A low level jet will bring a
period of non-convective LLWS through 12Z. This should diminish
as the core of the low level jet pushes east and the atmosphere
starts to mix with daytime heating.

Region will be in the warm sector today for much of the day.
A low pressure system will pass by to the north across the
Great Lakes. The front that has been oscillating across the
region will sag south back into northern Ohio. Convection on the
front may affect the CMH/LCK tafs after 03Z.

Winds will increase with diurnal heating today. Winds will
be from the west/southwest between 10 and 15 knots with gusts
between 20 and 30 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Sites

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
424 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-281100-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Hocking-
424 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and increase in coverage
into this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
into the early morning hours of Tuesday. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the main severe weather threats, but an isolated
tornado can not be ruled out. In addition, heavy rain will be
possible which may lead to localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible once again with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary severe weather threats.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

INZ058-059-066-OHZ070>073-080-281100-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Highland-
424 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop into this evening.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the main severe weather threats, but an isolated
tornado can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-082-088-281100-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hamilton-
Clermont-Brown-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
424 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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