Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue through the holiday
week, with a chance for thunderstorms each day. affect the
region, bringing the chance of thunderstorms each day. The best
chance for more widespread and organized storms will be
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Convection firing this afternoon as the region sits between an
upper ridge to the SW of the forecast area and an eastern Great
Lakes shortwave pushing through NE Ohio, and the associated weak
frontal boundary. Plenty of instability to work with and DCAPE
values from 1-1.3K favoring some storms to contain severe winds.
Minimal significant forcing or shear to speak of so gusts will
be pulse in nature. Heat indices will remain in the mid- upper
90s for the next several hours. Expecting convection to die down
somewhat with loss of daytime instability, diminishing in
coverage after 10pm, though isolated storms possible through
much of the night, especially in central Ohio.

Overnight lows with lingering cloud cover will be near 70 to
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Similar pattern on Wednesday, though increased low level
moisture and the lingering surface boundary serving as a focus
again for afternoon convection, an expectation of more
widespread storms. With the weak upper level NW flow and very
little steering winds, along with the potential for regenerating
storms and outflow boundary interaction in increased low level
convergence. This will result in an increased risk of heavy
rain and isolated flash flooding, in addition to potential for
damaging winds.

Daytime highs will be slightly lower with increased clouds,
with highs in the upper 80s to approaching 90 in some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday through Sunday will see a continuation of a summertime
pattern with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.  Increased
precipitation chances slightly on Thursday and Friday as it looks
like there is a little better forcing on those days.  As is typical
this time of year with this sort of pattern, with storms that
develop during this time there will be the potential for some pulse
severe.  Damaging winds are expected to be the primarily threat.

High temperatures will generally be in the middle and upper 80s.
Dewpoints are expected to primarily be in the 70s.  This combination
will lead to heat index values around the middle 90s at times.

Although cannot rule out a stray shower or storm beyond Sunday, it
looks like there will be a break in the thunderstorm activity for
Sunday night into Monday.  In addition there will be a brief break
with some of the higher dewpoints as well as dewpoints are expected
to be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thunderstorms developing across the region, but not expected to
be more than isolated in coverage until about 21z-00z. Have
brought in a tempo group for KCMH/KLCK in this timeframe, but
have otherwise kept VCTS for all other sites. Ceilings and
visibilty should still remain VFR, but in thunderstorms MVFR
visbilities possible.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Saturday, with the
activity peaking each afternoon. MVFR visibility possible in
thunderstorms.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-032015-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Temperatures around 90 will combine with high humidity to create
heat indices topping into the upper 90s. Additionally, there is the
potential for some thunderstorms to produce damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated severe storms are possible again on Wednesday. Afternoon heat
index values through Saturday have the potential to reach into the
upper 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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