Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
214 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue through the holiday
week, with a chance for thunderstorms each day. affect the
region, bringing the chance of thunderstorms each day. The best
chance for more widespread and organized storms will be
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made some slight adjustments to high temperatures this
afternoon, bringing heat index values slightly higher. Still not
to heat advisory criteria in the north, as afternoon
convection/clouds should dampen the values slightly.
Nonetheless, HI values into the upper 90s some locations. With
the surface ridge centered to the SW of the area will likely
yield greater convective activity as ridge riders in especially
the northern forecast area. MU CAPE values in the 2-3k range
this afternoon, so scattered storms still expected area wide,
with DCAPES in the 1000-1200 J/KG range providing at least some
potential for isolated damaging winds. Best chance will be on
the periphery of the ridge in the northern forecast area, but
can't be ruled out further south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As storms are more likely to focus on the aforementioned h5 axis
of upper spin in the northern third of the CWA Wednesday, they
can not be ruled out anywhere. These storms would normally see
a natural decrease overnight, but more upper level energy will
be working in from the west in a weakly focused shortwave
trough, keeping scattered activity going overnight Wednesday.
The broad area containing pockets of upward motion will linger
over the region. Daytime heating Thursday with continued
dewpoints around 70 and this unorganized energy will see storms
pop across the region and then decrease slightly overnight once
again.

Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will once again reach
near 90, with nighttime lows near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level flow becomes more zonal and shortwave energy moving
east over the Ohio Valley will again combine with daytime
heating on Friday for yet more thunderstorm activity. A
shortwave working through Friday night will help a surface front
cross the region Saturday. Scattered activity will decrease
significantly behind the front Saturday night, but more energy
will cross and activity will be slightly more organized with
shortwave energy moving through the mean wnw flow aloft.

Temperatures will not be moving much, even with a frontal
passage on Saturday. "Drier" air will work in Sunday night as
high pressure to the north creates a north flow, along with the
best chance of not having pop-up storms overnight and into
Monday.

Until the end of the forecast period, more of the same is
expected. Sunday will see highs only reach the low to mid 80s
and overnight lows will then drop into the mid and upper 60s.
Slightly cooler readings Mon/Mon night are also expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thunderstorms developing across the region, but not expected to
be more than isolated in coverage until about 21z-00z. Have
brought in a tempo group for KCMH/KLCK in this timeframe, but
have otherwise kept VCTS for all other sites. Ceilings and
visibilty should still remain VFR, but in thunderstorms MVFR
visbilities possible.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Saturday, with the
activity peaking each afternoon. MVFR visibility possible in
thunderstorms.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1101 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-031515-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1101 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Temperatures around 90 will combine with high humidity to create
heat indices topping into the upper 90s. Additionally, late afternoon
and early evening thunderstorms will develop, with the potential for
some storms to produce damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

High temperatures will reach the upper 80s through Saturday and
combine with high humidity to create heat indices in some locations
to 95 or slightly above.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
939 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW WILMINGTON         39.49N 83.88W
07/02/2019                   CLINTON            OH   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE REPORTED AT SEVERAL PROPERTIES NORTHWEST OF
            WILMINGTON, INCLUDING PROPERTIES ON CENTER ROAD, OGLESBEE
            ROAD, AND CURRY ROAD. NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED IN SEVERAL
            LOCATIONS. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

HATZOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1253 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

OHZ074-021730-
Hocking OH-
1253 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HOCKING COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1252 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Nelsonville, moving east at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Logan, Nelsonville, Starr, Murray City, Union Furnace, Haydenville
and Carbon Hill.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3947 8217 3947 8228 3938 8229 3939 8242
      3954 8240 3952 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 279DEG 19KT 3946 8233

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
221 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

INZ050-058-021845-
Fayette IN-Wayne IN-
221 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 221 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Dublin,
moving east at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Connersville, Centerville, Cambridge City, Hagerstown,
Dublin, Waterloo, Abington, Greens Fork, East Germantown, Mount
Auburn, Mettel Field, Jacksonburg, Interstate 70 at Exit 145,
Bentonville and Beesons.

This includes I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 134 and 148.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3979 8522 3987 8522 3987 8520 3994 8520
      3991 8492 3973 8496 3973 8503 3967 8503
      3973 8530 3979 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 279DEG 19KT 3982 8528

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

OHZ056-065-021915-
Licking OH-Fairfield OH-
258 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LICKING COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 258 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Millersport, moving southeast at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Buckeye Lake, Hebron, Millersport, Fairfield Beach, Harbor Hills,
Kirkersville, State Route 158 at State Route 204 and Interstate 70 at
State Route 37.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 122 and 129.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3985 8253 3992 8263 3998 8259 3994 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 301DEG 7KT 3993 8257

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
318 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

OHZ042-060-021945-
Darke OH-Preble OH-
318 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PREBLE AND SOUTHERN
DARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Arcanum,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Arcanum, Lewisburg, New Madison, Wayne Lakes, Eldorado, Verona, West
Manchester, Pitsburg, Hollansburg, Gordon, Palestine, Ithaca and
Castine.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4007 8473 3999 8443 3993 8443 3992 8445
      3992 8448 3989 8448 3985 8454 3992 8478
      3996 8481 4000 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 299DEG 10KT 3997 8463

KC