Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching low pressure system will produce numerous showers
and thunderstorms later this afternoon through tonight. Some of
these storms will produce very heavy rainfall which may lead to
flash flooding. A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley
on Thursday with more showers and thunderstorms. A brief dry
period is expected on Friday, then more showers and
thunderstorms are expected this weekend and into the first part
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers have developed across the Ohio Valley this
afternoon. Organization is fairly limited thus far, helping to
mitigate any severe risk but given the high moisture environment
and the fact that most areas are always saturated, heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding this afternoon.

This evening into the overnight, additional convection is
expected and convection will likely be better organized as a jet
helps to increase shear across the CWA, particularly later in
the evening. In addition to more widespread convection, there
may be a few storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

While there is a severe risk this evening that may linger well
into the night, the primary concern is certainly flash flooding
as rainfall rates from convection could be on the order of 1 to
2 inches an hour which would cause problems in many areas. Am
concerned that this may evolve into a significant flash flood
event across the CWA.

Late tonight/toward sunrise, southwest CWA may start to see
some dry slotting while northern CWA continues to see
showers/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure moves across northern Ohio and into Pennsylvania on
Thursday, dragging a cold front across the CWA. Mid level
shortwave will also follow. Result will be a continuation of
showers and thunderstorms, and any additional rainfall will only
exacerbate existing flooding. Chance of storms starts to lower
from west to east in the afternoon as drier air begins to push
in from the west. Drier air pushes across the entire area
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A brief respite from precipitation will occur during the day
Friday as weak high pressure temporary visits. This changes at
night on Friday as the old boundary starts to rise back to the
north as a warm front and we get into a northwest flow regime,
promoting shortwaves to dive southeast and affect the area with
more showers and thunderstorms. One or more disturbances
embedded within northwest flow may affect the CWA Friday night
into Saturday. Heavy rainfall and perhaps a severe /wind/ risk
are possible.

The remainder of the weekend into Monday will continue to be
unsettled, with an upper ridge over the southeast, keeping us
in a zone for convection. Eventually, a trough is expected to
swing through -- it's possible this swings through on Tuesday
with lower PoPs/drier conditions for the mid week period but
confidence is low on timing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Potential exists for a significant flood event this evening
into tonight. So much rain has already fallen over the last few
days, and as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous this
evening into tonight, many areas will receive additional heavy
rainfall. 1 to 2 inches an hour will be enough to cause flash
flooding in many of the vulnerable areas. Flash Flood Watch
continues into Thursday with more convection on Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP
HYDROLOGY...BPP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
413 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-200815-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
413 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more
numerous this afternoon and tonight. Any slow moving storm will be
capable of very heavy rain rates and localized flash flooding.

A few strong to severe storms are also possible this afternoon and
tonight. While the threat for strong storms will be highest from 3 PM
to 9 PM, the threat will linger well overnight as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will be possible again
Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall again possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1225 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     FLOOD            BELLEFONTAINE           40.36N 83.76W
06/19/2019                   LOGAN              OH   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MBP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
406 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

OHZ034-192030-
Mercer OH-
406 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
northwest of Coldwater, moving northeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Celina, Coldwater, Rockford, Wabash, Mendon, Chattanooga and Tama.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4072 8450 4054 8453 4045 8473 4053 8480
      4064 8480 4073 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 233DEG 31KT 4057 8473

Hatzos

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
441 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

OHZ043-044-192115-
Logan OH-Shelby OH-
441 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND WEST
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 441 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Anna,
moving east at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Anna, Jackson Center, Botkins, Quincy, Port Jefferson, Kettlersville,
Maplewood, Montra, Mccartyville and Swanders.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 96 and 105.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4030 8394 4034 8426 4046 8427 4049 8408
      4049 8399 4050 8399 4050 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 250DEG 15KT 4040 8414

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLOOD            BOTKINS                 40.47N 84.18W
06/19/2019                   SHELBY             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGH WATER IN BOTKINS.

&&

JEG