Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching low pressure system will produce numerous showers
and thunderstorms later this afternoon through tonight. Some of
these storms will produce very heavy rainfall which may lead to
flash flooding. A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley
on Thursday with more showers and thunderstorms. A brief dry
period is expected on Friday, then more showers and
thunderstorms are expected this weekend and into the first part
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers have developed across the Ohio Valley this
afternoon. Organization is fairly limited thus far, helping to
mitigate any severe risk but given the high moisture environment
and the fact that most areas are always saturated, heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding this afternoon.

This evening into the overnight, additional convection is
expected and convection will likely be better organized as a jet
helps to increase shear across the CWA, particularly later in
the evening. In addition to more widespread convection, there
may be a few storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

While there is a severe risk this evening that may linger well
into the night, the primary concern is certainly flash flooding
as rainfall rates from convection could be on the order of 1 to
2 inches an hour which would cause problems in many areas. Am
concerned that this may evolve into a significant flash flood
event across the CWA.

Late tonight/toward sunrise, southwest CWA may start to see
some dry slotting while northern CWA continues to see
showers/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure moves across northern Ohio and into Pennsylvania on
Thursday, dragging a cold front across the CWA. Mid level
shortwave will also follow. Result will be a continuation of
showers and thunderstorms, and any additional rainfall will only
exacerbate existing flooding. Chance of storms starts to lower
from west to east in the afternoon as drier air begins to push
in from the west. Drier air pushes across the entire area
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A brief respite from precipitation will occur during the day
Friday as weak high pressure temporary visits. This changes at
night on Friday as the old boundary starts to rise back to the
north as a warm front and we get into a northwest flow regime,
promoting shortwaves to dive southeast and affect the area with
more showers and thunderstorms. One or more disturbances
embedded within northwest flow may affect the CWA Friday night
into Saturday. Heavy rainfall and perhaps a severe /wind/ risk
are possible.

The remainder of the weekend into Monday will continue to be
unsettled, with an upper ridge over the southeast, keeping us
in a zone for convection. Eventually, a trough is expected to
swing through -- it's possible this swings through on Tuesday
with lower PoPs/drier conditions for the mid week period but
confidence is low on timing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Potential exists for a significant flood event this evening
into tonight. So much rain has already fallen over the last few
days, and as showers and thunderstorms become more numerous this
evening into tonight, many areas will receive additional heavy
rainfall. 1 to 2 inches an hour will be enough to cause flash
flooding in many of the vulnerable areas. Flash Flood Watch
continues into Thursday with more convection on Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...BPP
HYDROLOGY...BPP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
501 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-202115-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
501 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will become more
numerous this evening and tonight. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time, which may
cause flash flooding.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible, mainly
through about 10 pm, although a localized severe threat could linger
into the overnight. The primary threat would be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will be possible again
Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall again possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may become necessary this evening.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
710 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

KYZ092-093-096-097-OHZ078-192345-
Pendleton KY-Kenton KY-Campbell KY-Bracken KY-Clermont OH-
710 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN KENTON...NORTHWESTERN
BRACKEN...CAMPBELL...NORTHERN PENDLETON AND SOUTHERN CLERMONT
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 709 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Butler,
moving east at 40 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Pea size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Alexandria, Claryville, Bethel, New Richmond, Felicity,
Butler, Ryland Heights, Mentor, Moscow, Neville, California, Chilo,
Mount Auburn, Visalia, Willow Grove, Bradford, Grants Lick, Saltair
and Gubser Mill.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3870 8449 3896 8450 3901 8409 3884 8405
      3871 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 266DEG 33KT 3883 8443

Hatzos