Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
303 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and strong thunderstorms this
evening and then a much more seasonable airmass for the
remainder of the week. Light showers could linger for a few days
along the coast as the front stalls offshore but stays nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Visible channel shows outflow racing out
ahead of primary convective line, as steering flow guides storms
nearly parallel to the frontal boundary. The outpacing outflow may
cause some weakening in cells, but plentiful CAPE abounds ahead of
the front to be tapped, areas in sun much of the day.

Strong to severe into the I-95 corridor possible after 3 pm
based on latest trends, working toward the coast into early
evening. Reflectivity trends in models nearly all show weakening
toward the coast tonight, but not rapidly.

The arrival near peak heating well inland will support a higher
probability of damaging TSTM wind gusts over the western parts
NE SC and SE NC. 'Slight' risk remains intact for the area and
a watch is possible, for damaging TSTM wind probabilities ~15%.

This evening a zone of enhanced helicity will reside along the
coast as the frontal pressure field begins to interact with
resultant low-level winds near the coast from the days heating,
concurrently as the line of convection traverses the area, and
as such a 2-3% tornado risk across the coastal interior very
late afternoon or early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Seasonable temperatures expected through the
period. There may be a bit of unsettled weather however mainly in
the form of shallow convection and especially along the coast. This
will be in response to some moisture being drawn up over the
offshore front as flat waves of low pressure develop over FL and the
NE Gulf which then move northeast along the length of the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Frontal moisture will continue to pool near
the coast Friday through Sunday though the weakening mid level
trough could lead to insufficient lift for meaningful rain chances.
Temperatures will start the period very close to climatology. There
will be no airmass change in the latter part but solar insolation
will be strong enough to lead to a very gradual warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1645Z...Isolated showers and storms are possible along the
sea breeze this afternoon, but the significant chance for
thunderstorms will come this evening. Expect a cold front to
approach from the west bringing with it widespread thunderstorms
with the possibility of damaging winds. Knowing the exact
impacts will be difficult until the line develops, but it is
safe to say that every terminal will likely see a temporary
category or two reduction due to heavy rainfall during the
frontal passage. As the front moves east, it will stall along
the coast. Moisture will interact with the marine BL and showers
will maintain their presence overnight. If the front moves far
enough offshore, coastal terminals may not see any -RA, but this
decision continues to evolve. Moderate/high confidence in
stratus on Wednesday morning in the wake of the cold front.
Lingering clouds and a few showers along the coast will remain
for tomorrow as the front interacts with the remnants of TD3.

Extended Outlook...Lingering MVFR to IFR Wed as tropical
disturbance interacts with a stalled frontal boundary. Becoming
VFR Wed Eve into Thu as high pressure rebuilds from north.

&&

.MARINE...

As of 300 PM Tuesday...
Advisory flags remain hoisted as winds ahead of a front gust to
25 kt, accompanied by TSTM agitation, making the marine
environment a hazardous one. Outside of TSTMs, a windshift to
N-NE will occur late this evening, and could be gusty at times
into early Wednesday. Rain may linger behind the front into
Wednesday as well reducing marine visibility. The S wind-wave
energy lingering, will mesh with fresh incoming SSE waves every
7 seconds Wednesday with a few marine showers.

Rather unusual (for July) NE flow expected from Thursday onward
as high pressure building over the NE U.S. displaces the
seasonably normal Bermuda high to the east making the former the
local wind-maker. A frontal boundary will be stalled between
the two for most of the period. Flat waves of low pressure
moving SW to NE along this boundary will occasionally cause
minor oscillations in the wind direction. As this boundary
weakens late in the period winds will lighten and perhaps veer
to E. Late weekend seas could drop as low as 2 ft in response.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...21/8

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

SCZ023-232100-
Darlington SC-
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN DARLINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dovesville, or 11 miles northeast of Hartsville, moving northeast at
55 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hartsville, North Hartsville, Clyde, Dovesville, Lydia, Auburn,
Floyd, Kellytown, Society Hill and Carolina Pines Regional Medical
Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northeastern South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3449 8005 3450 7998 3449 7996 3449 7989
      3453 7983 3451 7983 3449 7981 3450 7977
      3452 7976 3449 7972 3447 7973 3447 7975
      3445 7975 3424 8012 3428 8013 3433 8018
      3437 8018 3434 8021 3433 8024 3437 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 231DEG 48KT 3447 7994

MBB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
411 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

NCZ087-232115-
Robeson NC-
411 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN ROBESON COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 410 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Laurinburg, moving northeast at 95 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. Many of these wind gusts will occur well ahead of the
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Red Springs, Pembroke, Maxton, St. Pauls, Rex, Raemon, Shannon, Buie,
Wakulla, Prospect, Parkton, Rennert and Lumber Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
southeastern North Carolina...and northeastern South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3490 7894 3485 7892 3457 7939 3463 7946
      3477 7933 3482 7936 3484 7935 3483 7919
      3495 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 236DEG 83KT 3473 7944

MBB