Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
357 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions and severe thunderstorms are possible through
this evening. Drying and breezy conditions into Saturday, as
the strong low pulls away, with diminishing winds late Saturday
through early next. A warming trend will get underway early
next week as high pressure moves overhead and offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Strong cold front marching east across the forecast area this
afternoon is spreading robust convection across the area. Strong
low level jet, between 50 and 60 kt, and impressive dynamics
with the mid-level system suggest significant severe potential
shifting from west to east during early-mid afternoon through
the evening hours. Mid-level trough acquires a slight negative
tilt today, further enhancing severe weather potential. Damaging
wind will be the main concern with some potential for an
isolated tornado. The line will be moving east at 30 to 40 mph,
but discrete cells with in the line could be moving north at
over 50 mph.

Once the front passes, much drier air will spread over the area
from the south. Atypical cold advection with southwest flow
spreading cold air into the area late tonight into Sat. Although
cold air starts to arrive tonight the lag in cold air and
relatively strong boundary layer mixing will keep lows above
climo.

Skies clear out overnight, but as the cold pool and moisture aloft
swing through during the day and surface heating commences expect
skies will start to cloud over. Increasing cloud cover and cold
advection will keep highs in the mid to upper 60s, especially
inland. Instability showers may develop Sat afternoon and continue
into the evening as the cold pool aloft passes just northwest of the
area. Right now shower chances are on the low side, but if core of
the cold air ends up a little closer coverage could be significantly
increased. Also have the potential for small hail with any showers
that develop given thermal profiles in the afternoon and evening.
Period ends with cold pool north of the area and development of weak
warm advection. Winds Sat night will be on the light side and skies
will clear with the loss of heating, allowing for some radiational
cooling and lows below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday through Monday cold pool aloft to migrate from the Mid
Atlantic to New England with plentiful dry mid level air rushing
in around the southern periphery to provide fair conditions.
This to bring precipitation-free weather this period,
seasonable with a warming trend. Sunday morning, as diurnal
warming begins, lapse rates and lower moisture from the
transiting upper trough axis, could generate isolated showers SE
NC, drying otherwise.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A fair period, because of dry air in general perched above 6000
feet. A weakening front to approach Friday, possibly crossing
the coast. Temperatures to make a climb through mid-week, above
normal Wed-Fri, slight cooling possible into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1720Z...Should be a pretty wild day with strong storms
possible  later today. The main squall line will occur this
afternoon over the western terminals, with the line moving to
the coast by this evening. Severe weather is expected, with
strong winds the main concern. Winds will gust to near 35 kts
outside of the convection, with much stronger winds possible in
storms. Most of the activity will have exited the coast by 02Z,
with westerly winds behind the front.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions during the pre-dawn hrs
of Sat from showers with a cold front pushing across and east of
the Carolina coasts by daybreak Sat. VFR conditions to prevail
thru Tue with MVFR possible from patchy morning fog Mon and Tue
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southerly flow continues this afternoon, supporting
continuation of the Gale Warning through at least the evening
hours. Once the front pushes offshore winds should veer to west-
southwest with a slight reduction in speed. At that point the
Gale Warning will probably be dropped in favor of a Small Craft
Advisory, with both winds and seas requiring the headline
through Sat and into Sat night. Offshore flow does slowly
decrease during Sat but winds remain southwest into Sat night
before true offshore flow develops. Seas well in excess of 10 ft
this evening start a slow decreasing trend around midnight, but
it will take until Sat night before seas drop under 6 ft.

Sunday Through Tuesday
This marine period is a favorable one, because of a diminishing
wind trend. Early in the period seas will be elevated from a
departing storm system, so advisories are possible early Sunday.
Mainly weak SE swell with light to moderate S-SW wind chop this
period, no TSTMs and no restrictions to visibility expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Combination of strong southerly flow, anticipated heavy rain
this evening, and astronomical high tide will result in water
levels along the lower Cape Fear River at Wilmington exceeding
coastal flood warning thresholds this evening. Current tide
forecast is just under warning threshold, but the tidal anomaly
has been increasing, in part due to increasing southerly flow.
Next several high tides may require a coastal flood advisory,
but at this point it does not appear additional warnings will be
needed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058-
     059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...8
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...DL/III
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ110-201930-
Coastal Brunswick-
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

For late afternoon into this evening...
Severe Thunderstorms are likely with the primary emphasis on
damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

For Saturday and possibly Sunday...
An elevated Rip current threat for both days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-201930-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

For late afternoon into this evening...
Severe Thunderstorms are likely with the primary emphasis on
damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

For Saturday and possibly Sunday...
An elevated Rip current threat for both days.
Residual south to north longshore current possible Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

AMZ250-252-254-256-201930-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Small Craft Advisory likely Saturday into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ087-096-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-201930-
Robeson-Bladen-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

For mid afternoon into early this evening...Severe Thunderstorms are
likely with the primary emphasis on damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ099-105-109-SCZ055-058-059-201930-
Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

For late this afternoon and into this evening...
Severe Thunderstorms are likely with the primary emphasis on
damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ107-201930-
Inland New Hanover-
325 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 91 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

For late this afternoon and into this evening...
Severe Thunderstorms are likely with the primary emphasis on
damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

For Sat Evening High Tide...
Minor coastal flooding will be possible along the Lower Cape Fear
River from Wilmington south. Flooding will occur within a 2 to 3
hour window centered around Sat evening's high tide which occurs
at 1140 PM EDT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW CADES             33.81N  79.86W
04/19/2019                   WILLIAMSBURG       SC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVED REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR THE
            TOWN OF CADES AROUND 3PM, LSR TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR
            VELOCITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1900007

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
341 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LYDIA                   34.28N  80.12W
04/19/2019                   DARLINGTON         SC   MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT HWY 15 AND
            TOMAHAWK ROAD IN LAMAR, SC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1900008

21

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