Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
209 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

A shortwave trough lifting over the area now will bring additional
chances for showers and storms as we move through the afternoon
and early evening hours. There could be a brief lull late this
afternoon and early evening immediately in the wake of this
shortwave trough, but confidence in this remains somewhat low as
we remain weakly capped with a plethora of low level moisture.
Later this evening and tonight, a developing LLJ and associated
low level moisture transport may support some additional storm
development as the warm front lifts northward across the area. The
best chance for storms should be along and north of the front but
the airmass is progged to remain weakly capped so any subtle lift
may result in showers and storms impacting much of the area. The
short range models differ in how quickly this front lifts north
across the area tonight, but if a more progressive solution
verifies, then precipitation chances would be even lower across
much of southern KS.

Sun-Mon...as we move into the day on Sunday, the pbl is progged to
remain very moist and with minimal capping during the afternoon
hours. It'll be hard to rule out some isolated or widely scattered
diurnally driven storms but with a lack of any focus will
maintain a dry forecast through the afternoon hours. Above normal
temperatures will prevail with highs in the mid and upper 80s. A
strong pressure gradient and relatively deep vertical mixing
should support winds in the 25-35 knot range and a wind advisory
will likely be needed across at least portions of central KS.
Another breezy and mild day is anticipated across the area on Mon
as we remain within a moist southwest mid/upper flow regime. High
temperatures will easily climb into the mid and upper 80s while
some locations seeing highs in the low 90s.

By Tue, the subtropical ridge is progged to set up across the
Tennessee Valley area with southwest mid/upper flow across the
Central Plains states. There is good agreement that a cold front
will bisect the area late in the period bringing increasing
chances for showers and storms with the potential for heavy
rain/flooding concerns. PWAT anomalies remain impressive which
will support efficient rainfall and flooding concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

A shortwave trough will rotate through the area Wed into early
Thu bringing multiple rounds of showers/storms with heavy rain
and continued chances for flooding concerns across much of the
area. The front is progged to sweep through the area on Thursday
as a shortwave trough moves over the Northern Plains. This is
expected to drive an unseasonably cool airmass south across the
area with highs struggling to climb out of the 60s Thu- Fri across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Another challenging aviation forecast with areas of stratus and
TSRA. Initial focus is on shortwave that will traverse the area
this this afternoon. This wave should continue to generate -SHRA
& TSRA as it moves through allowing winds back along front to
cause increasing convergence and overrunning. Anticipate
precipitation to wane this afternoon, before breaking out very
late this afternoon or evening with some recovery and breaks in
overcast. Remains to be seen how extensive this clearing will be
and the resultant increase in instability for TSRA very late this
afternoon, but more likely this evening. Combo of moisture return
tonight will likely generate extensive MVFR or IFR ceilings and
probably some elevated TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  84  72  86 /  40  20   0   0
Hutchinson      67  85  73  87 /  40  20   0   0
Newton          67  84  72  85 /  40  20   0   0
ElDorado        70  84  73  85 /  50  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   71  84  71  85 /  50  20   0   0
Russell         62  87  73  91 /  30  20   0   0
Great Bend      62  86  72  89 /  30  20   0   0
Salina          64  87  74  89 /  40  20   0   0
McPherson       65  84  72  86 /  40  20   0   0
Coffeyville     71  85  71  86 /  30  20   0   0
Chanute         70  84  71  85 /  40  20   0   0
Iola            70  84  72  86 /  60  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    72  84  71  85 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS

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