Severe Thunderstorm Warning 382, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
209 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

A shortwave trough lifting over the area now will bring additional
chances for showers and storms as we move through the afternoon
and early evening hours. There could be a brief lull late this
afternoon and early evening immediately in the wake of this
shortwave trough, but confidence in this remains somewhat low as
we remain weakly capped with a plethora of low level moisture.
Later this evening and tonight, a developing LLJ and associated
low level moisture transport may support some additional storm
development as the warm front lifts northward across the area. The
best chance for storms should be along and north of the front but
the airmass is progged to remain weakly capped so any subtle lift
may result in showers and storms impacting much of the area. The
short range models differ in how quickly this front lifts north
across the area tonight, but if a more progressive solution
verifies, then precipitation chances would be even lower across
much of southern KS.

Sun-Mon...as we move into the day on Sunday, the pbl is progged to
remain very moist and with minimal capping during the afternoon
hours. It'll be hard to rule out some isolated or widely scattered
diurnally driven storms but with a lack of any focus will
maintain a dry forecast through the afternoon hours. Above normal
temperatures will prevail with highs in the mid and upper 80s. A
strong pressure gradient and relatively deep vertical mixing
should support winds in the 25-35 knot range and a wind advisory
will likely be needed across at least portions of central KS.
Another breezy and mild day is anticipated across the area on Mon
as we remain within a moist southwest mid/upper flow regime. High
temperatures will easily climb into the mid and upper 80s while
some locations seeing highs in the low 90s.

By Tue, the subtropical ridge is progged to set up across the
Tennessee Valley area with southwest mid/upper flow across the
Central Plains states. There is good agreement that a cold front
will bisect the area late in the period bringing increasing
chances for showers and storms with the potential for heavy
rain/flooding concerns. PWAT anomalies remain impressive which
will support efficient rainfall and flooding concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

A shortwave trough will rotate through the area Wed into early
Thu bringing multiple rounds of showers/storms with heavy rain
and continued chances for flooding concerns across much of the
area. The front is progged to sweep through the area on Thursday
as a shortwave trough moves over the Northern Plains. This is
expected to drive an unseasonably cool airmass south across the
area with highs struggling to climb out of the 60s Thu- Fri across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Another challenging aviation forecast with areas of stratus and
TSRA. Initial focus is on shortwave that will traverse the area
this this afternoon. This wave should continue to generate -SHRA
& TSRA as it moves through allowing winds back along front to
cause increasing convergence and overrunning. Anticipate
precipitation to wane this afternoon, before breaking out very
late this afternoon or evening with some recovery and breaks in
overcast. Remains to be seen how extensive this clearing will be
and the resultant increase in instability for TSRA very late this
afternoon, but more likely this evening. Combo of moisture return
tonight will likely generate extensive MVFR or IFR ceilings and
probably some elevated TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  84  72  86 /  40  20   0   0
Hutchinson      67  85  73  87 /  40  20   0   0
Newton          67  84  72  85 /  40  20   0   0
ElDorado        70  84  73  85 /  50  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   71  84  71  85 /  50  20   0   0
Russell         62  87  73  91 /  30  20   0   0
Great Bend      62  86  72  89 /  30  20   0   0
Salina          64  87  74  89 /  40  20   0   0
McPherson       65  84  72  86 /  40  20   0   0
Coffeyville     71  85  71  86 /  30  20   0   0
Chanute         70  84  71  85 /  40  20   0   0
Iola            70  84  72  86 /  60  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    72  84  71  85 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-290930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
211 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day today,
with the best chance of strong to severe storms this afternoon and
evening across southeast Kansas. The main threats will be large hail
up to the size of ping-pong balls and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Chances for storms will persist throughout the night tonight but
widespread severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few lingering storms will be possible on Sunday morning before
clearing during the afternoon.

Sustained wind speeds approaching 30mph with gusts up to 40mph or
so will be possible in central Kansas on Sunday afternoon.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely from
Tuesday through Thursday next week, with an increased risk of very
heavy rainfall and flooding. Strong to severe thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible later today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
944 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

KSZ083-092-281545-
Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-
944 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Sumner County in south central Kansas...
  Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1045 AM CDT.

* At 942 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 7 miles northwest
  of Wellington...moving north at 30 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Derby, Andover, Haysville, Wellington, Park City, Valley
  Center, Bel Aire, Mulvane, Goddard, Rose Hill, Maize, Clearwater,
  Cheney, Sedgwick, Belle Plaine, Colwich, Conway Springs, Oxford and
  Garden Plain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 9780 3773 9779 3773 9769 3791 9770
      3791 9715 3726 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 1444Z 191DEG 27KT 3732 9753

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1022 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             2 NW GOESSEL            38.27N 97.37W
09/27/2019  M1.00 INCH       MARION             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DELAYED REPORT FROM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1052 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

KSZ051-052-068-083-281700-
McPherson KS-Harvey KS-Marion KS-Sedgwick KS-
1052 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until noon CDT.

* At 1051 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near
  Valley Center...moving north at 30 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Derby, Newton, Haysville, Park City, Valley Center, Bel
  Aire, Mulvane, Goddard, Hesston, Maize, Hillsboro, Clearwater,
  Cheney, Halstead, North Newton, Moundridge, Sedgwick, Colwich and
  Burrton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9780 3774 9769 3831 9771 3837 9708
      3808 9715 3749 9716 3748 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 191DEG 27KT 3788 9730

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1151 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

KSZ052-053-281715-
Marion KS-Chase KS-
1151 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 1215 PM CDT.

* At 1150 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 7 miles
  southeast of Lincolnville, or 10 miles northeast of Marion...moving
  northeast at 35 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lincolnville, Hymer and Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9656 3829 9675 3843 9706
      3858 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 213DEG 30KT 3843 9686

METZGER

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