Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
623 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

A challenging forecast in the short term, especially surrounding chances
for strong and severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight
tonight. Later this evening, a cold front is expected to make its
way southeastward across Kansas from western Nebraska/northeast
Colorado. Ahead of this front, a strong southerly low-level jet
will advect moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico,
which will promote thunderstorm development given the available
instability and daytime heating during the day today.

The two main challenges will be the timing and intensity of these
storms. Most models all generally show the greatest instability,
at least initially, across south central Kansas with MUCAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg in some spots, 40+ kts of bulk shear, and
steep mid-level lapse rates of around 8C/km or so. By around 06z,
the more favorable parameters shift to central Kansas where
impressive frontogenetical forcing is expected along/ahead of the
front. Thus, thinking that a bit of initial development is
possible in south central/southeast Kansas this evening before a
second round of perhaps stronger storms develop along the boundary
further north in central Kansas. Environmental conditions
continue to favor more of a hail and wind threat in the
stronger/severe storms that do develop, though an isolated tornado
cannot be completely ruled out given the abundance of low-level
helicity but fairly high forecast LCL heights. Localized flooding
could also be a concern. Forecast precipitable water values around
1.4in are well above climo, so storms are likely to dump very
heavy rainfall. Have held off on a flood watch for now, but
certainly flooding could be possible in low-lying and flood prone
areas.

Once the front makes it through much of the area overnight, it is
then expected to stall as it stretches across Missouri, far
southeast Kansas, and central Oklahoma. Overrunning moisture will
continue to support lingering showers and storms across southeast
Kansas during the day on tomorrow and then become more widespread
across the CWA tomorrow evening-overnight. Fairly challenging
temperature forecast for tomorrow as well. Most guidance is quite
a bit warmer than the going forecast but still think the limiting
factor will be the extent of cloud cover and northerly flow over
the area. Therefore, despite some small tweaks, have kept most of
the temps in tact for tomorrow in favor of the cooler/more
extensive cloud cover scenario. By Tuesday, a mid/upper shortwave
will quickly race across the state, continuing shower/storm
chances that could bring more rounds of heavy rain to southeast
Kansas. Strong to severe storms will be possible during the
afternoon/evening hours both days, with the greatest severe
weather threat in south central Kansas on Monday and southeast
Kansas on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

By the middle of the week, the weather will remain unsettled with
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday-early
Thursday morning. At this time, severe weather does not appear
likely in favor of more marginal thunderstorms and showers.
Temperatures will remain slightly below normal throughout the week
this week, rebounding back into the low 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

TSRA to impact the area through the overnight hours.

Clusters of TSRA developing over western Kansas will continue to
push east this evening/overnight, potentially impacting a large
portion of our forecast area. Hail up to golfball size, wind gusts
of 55kt+, and possibly even a tornado will be possible. Any
terminal impacted by a TSRA will also see MVFR or lower VIS. In
the wake of the storms, a wind shift to the north is expected,
with lingering MVFR/low VFR CIGs likely. Of note, too, for several
hours this evening, an increasing low-level jet will lead to LLWS
conditions, especially south-central through southeast Kansas.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  64  52  68 /  40  20  70  80
Hutchinson      53  63  48  64 /  60  10  60  80
Newton          56  63  48  63 /  50  20  60  80
ElDorado        59  65  52  67 /  50  30  70  80
Winfield-KWLD   62  68  56  70 /  30  30  70  80
Russell         47  61  43  58 /  70  10  60  70
Great Bend      48  62  44  59 /  60  10  60  70
Salina          51  63  46  60 /  80  10  60  80
McPherson       52  63  47  62 /  70  10  60  80
Coffeyville     63  73  60  73 /  30  40  60  80
Chanute         61  69  57  72 /  60  40  70  80
Iola            61  68  57  71 /  70  40  70  80
Parsons-KPPF    62  72  59  73 /  40  40  60  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...RM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
957 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-300300-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
957 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A cluster of thunderstorms will push east southeast across portions
of central and south-central Kansas through the overnight hours.
The primary threats will be wind gusts of 60-70 mph, hail up to
golfball size, and heavy rain. A low-end tornado threat may exist,
especially across south-central Kansas. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
109 is in effect for this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are in the forecast from Monday
afternoon through Thursday morning. A few severe storms with
quarter sized hail and 60mph wind gusts will be possible in south
central Kansas on Monday and in southeast Kansas on Tuesday.
Flooding will also be a concern through the first half of the week,
as very heavy rainfall is expected in these storms.

Wednesday into Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will be lighter.
Some of these storms could be locally strong with small hail and
winds up to 50 mph possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely tonight, especially in central and
south central Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
151 AM CDT MON APR 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND GST     PARTRIDGE               37.97N 98.09W
04/29/2019  M60 MPH          RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL OCCURRED AS WELL.

&&

MARTIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
203 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

KSZ067-068-083-290730-
Reno KS-Harvey KS-Sedgwick KS-
203 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Northern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 201 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall over Buhler...
  moving east at 40 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Newton, Park City, Valley Center, Hesston, Halstead, North Newton,
  Sedgwick, Buhler, Haven, Burrton, Mount Hope, Bentley, Walton,
  Yoder and Newton Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central and central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3782 9793 3817 9781 3817 9715 3782 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 270DEG 34KT 3811 9774

METZGER