Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Tonight:
Complex pattern at the onset, with departing MCV, large cold pool
juxtaposed with pocket of deeper moisture as evidenced in 1200
UTC soundings and approaching weak upper trough from the west.
Models show a lot of variation in how things will evolve and none
seem to be exactly on target with existing convection. Thinking
that cold pool may limit some of the convection in southeast KS,
but areas in central/south central KS where moisture advection and
upper lift are maximized have best chances this evening and
overnight. Will be potential for heavy rainfall, especially where
storms train given ample deep moisture.

Thursday-Thursday night:
Currently thinking some precipitation will be ongoing in the
morning, most likely across the Flint Hills. Remains to be seen
how extensive precipitation will be by midday. Thinking it would
diminish in the morning, then develop or increase in the
afternoon, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Warmer temperatures aloft may cap western half of area. While
suspicious, GFS attempts to generate elevated convection to the
west and southwest of KICT around 0000 UTC. Also of note, ARW/NMM
generate and move an MCS across most of the forecast area after
midnight. If this plays out, subsequent forecasts will need to
significantly add/increase chances for precipitation east of a
K9K7-KCFV line.

Friday-Saturday:
Forecast on Friday is quite challenging. A lot depends on whether
MCS materializes during the very early morning hours Friday.
Otherwise surface boundary in the vicinity of central KS will
likely be focus for a few storms late afternoon, growing upscale
Friday night. Southern/western extent is a bit challenging Friday
night and into Saturday and initialization grids may be a bit
generous to the west/southwest of KICT, but underdone to the east.
Anticipate considerable changes with subsequent forecasts given
the difficultly of models to accurately resolve this type of
summertime regime. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Little change during the medium range with upper ridge hanging
tough and weak surface boundary likely meandering across the
Central Plains, potentially across the forecast area per 1200 UTC
GFS/ECMWF. This will bring chances for isolated storms in the
afternoon and more organized storms overnight, depending on where
the front is located. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Showers and a few thunderstorms will redevelop overnight across
central and southeast Kansas. While VFR conditions will prevail
away from convection, expect brief MVFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys
in storms. However, due to scattered coverage will relegate
mention to VCSH and amend as needed when impact on a terminal
becomes more imminent. Otherwise, showers and storms may linger
through the morning hours across eastern Kansas with diurnally
driven isolated strong storms possible across all areas in the
afternoon.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  92  73  95 /  40  20  10  20
Hutchinson      70  93  72  96 /  30  20  10  20
Newton          71  91  73  94 /  50  20  20  20
ElDorado        71  90  73  92 /  40  20  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   69  91  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
Russell         69  97  71  98 /  30  10  10  30
Great Bend      69  95  71  96 /  30  10  10  30
Salina          71  95  73  96 /  50  20  20  30
McPherson       70  93  72  95 /  40  20  20  30
Coffeyville     71  90  73  92 /  50  20  10  10
Chanute         70  89  72  91 /  30  30  10  10
Iola            70  89  72  91 /  40  30  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    71  89  73  91 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1009 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-050315-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1009 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms after midnight. The better
chances will reside along and east of a Salina to Wichita to
Arkansas City line, where localized heavy rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be multiple chances over for storms throughout this
period. Storms will be mainly isolated during the afternoon, with a
couple of chances for more organized storms during the night.
Some of the storms during the period will be strong with 50 mph
winds and small hail. A few severe storms are possible, especially
if the organized storms develop overnight.

Heat indices will be near 100 degrees over at least parts of the
area each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/