Areal Flood Warning 113, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
649 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Overnight convection is expected to linger through much of the
morning in portions of east central to southeast KS. Some hi-res
CAMS suggest this convection persists into the afternoon in far
southeast Kansas. The rest of the CWA should have a period of dry
weather for the daytime hours today and into the first part of the
evening. Can't rule out a stray shower/storm given portions of the
CWA will be weakly capped through the daylight hours. Cooled temps
slightly tomorrow across southeast Kansas due to expected increased
cloud cover from lingering convection. Expect temps in the upper 80s
to low 90s.

There remains to be some uncertainties in timing of convection
tonight. Convection should slowly develop along a gradient of strong
moisture advection and developing 850mb LLJ this evening. Initial
thoughts is this convection should wait until late evening closer to
06z, to get in 4th of July festivities, however there is some
support for an earlier start. At least the NAM indicates a PV wave
moving approaching the CWA near central KS as early as 03z which may
help support earlier initiation, and a few CAMS members have
convection near central KS by 03z. Localized flooding will again be
possible with training/or slow moving storms given PW's of 1.75-2
inches across the area.

Not much change from the previous forecast for Friday convection.
Timing and extent remains uncertain and will depend how the Thursday
night convection materializes. A sfc low progged just the west of
the CWA and sfc front expected to set up somewhere near central KS
will be the focus for convection on Friday should the environment
not be worked over from the previous night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

A similar nocturnal convection pattern seems to be set up through
the extended. A weak ridge will remain over the area with
embedded subtle troughs with a meandering sfc boundary in the area
that will continue to support pops in the forecast through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

A large slow moving overnight MCS was impacting much of central
and eastern Kansas early this morning. Pockets of MVFR/IFR can be
expected, especially under the heavier bursts of rain. Eventually
VFR is anticipated from west to east as the slow moving MCS
departs the area. MVFR may linger into the afternoon hours at
KCNU, although the primary impacts could remain just north of the
terminal. Other storms may redevelop tonight across central and
south central KS, with another round of heavy rain and MVFR/IFR
cigs after 05-07Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  73  93  72 /  30  30  20  30
Hutchinson      90  72  93  71 /  30  30  20  30
Newton          88  73  91  71 /  50  30  20  30
ElDorado        85  73  90  72 /  70  30  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   87  73  92  73 /  30  20  10  30
Russell         94  71  93  69 /  10  20  30  40
Great Bend      93  71  94  69 /  10  10  30  40
Salina          91  73  92  71 /  30  30  30  40
McPherson       89  72  92  70 /  30  30  30  30
Coffeyville     87  73  90  73 /  30  20  10  20
Chanute         86  72  90  72 /  60  20  10  20
Iola            85  72  90  72 /  70  20  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    86  73  90  73 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
445 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-050945-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
445 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Ongoing storms across the area are producing heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding. Flash Flood warnings are in place, see
local warnings for updates.

The Smoky Hill River Near Mentor is in minor flood stage. See latest River
Flood Warning for details.

An isolated storm or two are possible today although best chances
expected tonight. Storms may be strong to marginally severe. Localized
flooding will be likely with slow moving storms.

Heat indices near 100 degrees are possible across portions of
central KS today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Several chances for storms throughout the period. Some storms may
be strong to marginally severe.

Heat indices near 100 degrees will be possible each day throughout
the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
712 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SSE NEWTON            37.98N 97.31W
07/04/2019  M2.38 INCH       HARVEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
715 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 N NEWTON             38.19N 97.34W
07/04/2019  E3.99 INCH       MARION             KS   COCORAHS

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
725 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW HILLSBORO          38.39N 97.25W
07/04/2019  E5.00 INCH       MARION             KS   COCORAHS

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
727 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 ENE GYPSUM            38.75N 97.29W
07/04/2019  M4.40 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   COCORAHS

&&

MWM