Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Tonight:
Complex pattern at the onset, with departing MCV, large cold pool
juxtaposed with pocket of deeper moisture as evidenced in 1200
UTC soundings and approaching weak upper trough from the west.
Models show a lot of variation in how things will evolve and none
seem to be exactly on target with existing convection. Thinking
that cold pool may limit some of the convection in southeast KS,
but areas in central/south central KS where moisture advection and
upper lift are maximized have best chances this evening and
overnight. Will be potential for heavy rainfall, especially where
storms train given ample deep moisture.

Thursday-Thursday night:
Currently thinking some precipitation will be ongoing in the
morning, most likely across the Flint Hills. Remains to be seen
how extensive precipitation will be by midday. Thinking it would
diminish in the morning, then develop or increase in the
afternoon, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area.
Warmer temperatures aloft may cap western half of area. While
suspicious, GFS attempts to generate elevated convection to the
west and southwest of KICT around 0000 UTC. Also of note, ARW/NMM
generate and move an MCS across most of the forecast area after
midnight. If this plays out, subsequent forecasts will need to
significantly add/increase chances for precipitation east of a
K9K7-KCFV line.

Friday-Saturday:
Forecast on Friday is quite challenging. A lot depends on whether
MCS materializes during the very early morning hours Friday.
Otherwise surface boundary in the vicinity of central KS will
likely be focus for a few storms late afternoon, growing upscale
Friday night. Southern/western extent is a bit challenging Friday
night and into Saturday and initialization grids may be a bit
generous to the west/southwest of KICT, but underdone to the east.
Anticipate considerable changes with subsequent forecasts given
the difficultly of models to accurately resolve this type of
summertime regime. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Little change during the medium range with upper ridge hanging
tough and weak surface boundary likely meandering across the
Central Plains, potentially across the forecast area per 1200 UTC
GFS/ECMWF. This will bring chances for isolated storms in the
afternoon and more organized storms overnight, depending on where
the front is located. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Mid-day satellite and radar imagery show continued showers and
thunderstorms across southeast Kansas. These showers/storms will
continue to impact KCNU throughout the afternoon, though thinking
the bulk of the activity will remain along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike corridor, and thus not affect other TAF sites. Later
this evening, it is possible for storms to re-develop in central
Kansas in the vicinity of KSLN, so have included a VCTS mention
for now and will continue to monitor. It is possible that MVFR
ceilings will overspread portions of the area late in the forecast
period, but have only included a SCT cloud deck for this issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  92  73  95 /  40  20  10  20
Hutchinson      71  93  72  96 /  50  20  10  20
Newton          72  91  73  94 /  50  20  20  20
ElDorado        72  90  73  92 /  40  20  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   72  91  73  94 /  40  20  10  10
Russell         70  97  71  98 /  20  10  10  30
Great Bend      70  95  71  96 /  20  10  10  30
Salina          72  95  73  96 /  50  20  20  30
McPherson       71  93  72  95 /  50  20  20  30
Coffeyville     72  90  73  92 /  30  20  10  10
Chanute         71  89  72  91 /  30  30  10  10
Iola            71  89  72  91 /  30  30  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    72  89  73  91 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...TAV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
433 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-042145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
433 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible over most areas this evening.
Storms could linger overnight, with the best chance across the Flint
Hills. Storms will produce heavy rain which could cause flooding,
especially over areas that received heavy rain during the past 24
hours. A couple of strong storms with small hail and winds to 50 mph
are possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be multiple chances over for storms throughout this
period. Storms will be mainly isolated during the afternoon, with a
couple of chances for more organized storms during the night.
Some of the storms during the period will be strong with 50 mph
winds and small hail. A few severe storms are possible, especially
if the organized storms develop overnight.

Heat indices will be near 100 degrees over at least parts of the
area each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Howerton

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
521 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

KSZ032-032245-
Russell KS-
521 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  North central Russell County in central Kansas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 518 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Luray, or 18 miles north of
  Russell...moving northeast at 10 mph.

* Hazard...Hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Luray and Waldo.

LAT...LON 3907 9871 3907 9883 3913 9883 3913 9869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 208DEG 9KT 3914 9874

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