Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Storms continue to fester over portions of southern KS, ahead of a
weak mid level shortwave moving across wrn KS into Central KS. Low
level moisture transport ahead of this shortwave continues to
support the cluster of storms over the Flint Hills/SE KS and south
central KS. Latest RAP shows initial moisture transport waning some
as midnight approaches. So expect the SE KS cluster of storms to
wane as it wanders east.  Another area of storms over south central
KS may maintain itself until after midnight, as it moves into south
central KS for areas along and SW of ICT, as the RAP also shows
another area of moisture transport increasing into southern KS after
midnight. So will keep pops going into the overnight hours for
southern KS.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Unstable airmass in weak flow regime with weak capping should
continue to allow for mainly isolated/widely scattered convection
through Friday. Mesoscale vorticity center drifting over western
Kansas this afternoon and other sub-synoptic features will likely
remain foci for loosely organized, slow moving convection. As
previous forecaster alluded to, a gradual increase in the daily
heat is expected with heat indices flirting with advisory criteria
again late in the week. A southward sagging weak cold front by
Friday evening into Friday night may provide a better focus for
scattered storms across the area.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Weak migratory perturbations just north of the upper ridge axis
trying to build north again into the central Plains will continue
to ripple east over the meandering surface boundary through the
weekend. So will continue to show modest chance PoPs. The GFS
continues to show a more progressive upper flow regime across the
northern tier of states through early next week which evolves
into eventual troughing over the Upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes by mid-week. If so, this may allow modest cooling just
beyond the seven day forecast.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Widely scattered showers/storms continue over portions of
central and southern KS. So will go with a VCTS for the KGBD/KICT
and KCNU tafs.

After 08-09z expect most of the convection to wane or end, as low
level moisture transport wanes or diminishes. Expect VFR conditions
for the next 12 hours after the convection ends,  or until Wed
afternoon.

Could see a repeat of the diurnally driven storm chances for Wed
afternoon.  But will let later taf issuances try to figure out
where. For now will go with a VCTS near KCNU, where chances seem a
little higher, albeit small.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  92  72  93 /  20  20  20  20
Hutchinson      71  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  20
Newton          71  92  71  93 /  20  20  20  20
ElDorado        71  90  71  91 /  20  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   70  90  71  91 /  20  20  20  20
Russell         70  94  71  95 /  40  10  20  20
Great Bend      70  93  71  94 /  40  10  20  20
Salina          72  94  73  95 /  20  20  20  20
McPherson       70  93  71  94 /  20  20  20  20
Coffeyville     72  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  20
Chanute         71  90  71  91 /  20  20  20  20
Iola            71  89  71  90 /  20  20  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    71  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
316 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This evening and tonight

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
area. Strong storms will be possible this evening, capable of small
hail and down-burst winds to around 55 mph. Slow movement of some
storms may also result in localized heavy rainfall and minor
lowland flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. While the risk for
organized severe storms will remain low, strong storms with gusty
winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Heat indices will approach or hover around 100 degrees during the
afternoon hours on Thursday and Friday and may persist into Saturday
afternoon over far southern Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1031 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KSZ069-030415-
Butler KS-
1031 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1115 PM CDT.

* At 1029 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near
  Leon. this storm was nearly stationary.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Towanda, Benton, Leon, Rosalia, El
  Dorado Airport, Augusta Municipal Airport, El Dorado State Park, El
  Dorado Lake and Santa Fe Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 9711 3779 9711 3788 9661 3754 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 289DEG 2KT 3772 9687

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KSZ093-094-098-030445-
Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Western Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1145 PM CDT.

* At 1059 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near
  Dexter, or 11 miles west of Cedar Vale...moving northeast at 15
  mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Howard, Cedar Vale, Burden, Dexter, Grenola, Cambridge and Maple
  City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9694 3748 9673 3747 9627 3700 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 219DEG 12KT 3714 9671

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1102 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KSZ098-099-030445-
Montgomery KS-Chautauqua KS-
1102 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Eastern Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1145 PM CDT.

* At 1059 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near
  Peru, or 7 miles northwest of Caney...moving southeast at 15 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Coffeyville, Caney, Sedan, Dearing, Tyro, Peru, Chautauqua, Havana,
  Niotaze and Hale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9625 3721 9630 3728 9600 3700 9562
      3700 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 311DEG 14KT 3706 9604

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KSZ095-096-099-100-030445-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Labette KS-Neosho KS-
1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Northwestern Labette County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1145 PM CDT.

* At 1102 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near
  Neodesha...moving southeast at 15 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Parsons, Coffeyville, Independence, Neodesha, Cherryvale, Thayer,
  Dearing, Mound Valley, Elk City, Liberty, Bolton, Sycamore, Lake
  Parsons, Parsons Tri City Airport, Dennis, Elk City Lake, Big Hill
  Lake, Elk City State Park, Independence Airport and Coffeyville
  Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 9597 3726 9596 3753 9561 3737 9525
      3700 9559 3700 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 311DEG 13KT 3734 9568

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1131 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S LATHAM              37.52N 96.64W
07/02/2019                   BUTLER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A LARGE TREE WAS KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

BDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

KSZ093-098-030515-
Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-
1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Western Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT.

* At 1146 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 6 miles
  west of Cedar Vale...moving northeast at 15 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cedar Vale and Maple City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9644 3700 9683 3730 9662 3730 9613
TIME...MOT...LOC 0448Z 213DEG 12KT 3707 9661

METZGER