Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

A warm and humid airmass is located over southern KS at this time,
with heat index values climbing into the 100-105 range.  A weak
outflow boundary from the NE KS convective complex continues to wash
out over southern and SE KS at this time as well.  For the late
afternoon into the evening hours, will have to keep an eye on this
outflow boundary, as an extremely unstable airmass (SBCAPE values of
7000 j/kg) is located across most of southern KS.  Not sure
convergence this evening will be enough to overcome a very stout and
warm elevated mixed layer (Cap) as the boundary washes out. But will
have to keep an eye on SE KS this afternoon, as any storm that could
develop will be severe, given the extreme instability. But this
chance is very very slim. Elsewhere, think the cap will hold,
keeping any convection from developing with a warm and humid evening
expected in most locations.

For tonight/overnight, warm temps aloft will continue to lead to
warm and breezy conditions for most locations. Low level moisture
transport does increase across central KS by around midnight, which
may lead to a few storms developing north of I-70, but think the
bulk of the convection overnight will either be well north or
northwest of the forecast area.

Focus then shifts to Sat/Sun, as a warm and humid airmass will
continue across most of the forecast for both Sat and Sun.  This
will lead to an extremely unstable airmass again located across the
area for the afternoon hours. The big difference for Sat/Sun will be
that a cold front will gradually push south across portions of the
forecast area for Sat afternoon, with a pseudo dryline expected to
be situated over south central KS.  Convergence along the front and
a mid level shortwave expected to move into the area in the SW flow,
will lead to severe storms developing during the afternoon hours on
Sat given the extremely unstable airmass expected and more than
adequate bulk shear values.  The main concern initially will be very
large hail given the tall updrafts expected, but cannot completely
rule out a tornado, given the steep mid level lapse rates and
potential stretching located along the slow moving boundary.  As Sat
evening progresses, think the convection will congeal into a broken
line of multicell and embedded supercell clusters, with an evolving
damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat.  Am especially concerned
about the flash flooding threat across southern KS for Sat
evening/night, as the southwest low level jet strengthens with lots
of moisture transport, leading to training or slow moving storms and
possibly even some backbuilding storms continuing into the overnight
 hours.  With this in mind, plan on issuing a flash flood watch for
most of southern KS for this threat, given precipitable water values
of 160-200 percent of normal.

The slow moving cold front is expected to stall across the forecast
area for late Sat night into Sun, with lingering convection expected
to continue for portions of SE KS into Sun morning. Atmosphere is
expected to be pretty worked over on Sun morning, but as Sun
progresses, the atmosphere will recover enough for the extreme
instability to again reside over areas along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike.  The main mid/upper trough is expected to move across KS
for Sun afternoon, with lift associated with this shortwave expected
to help develop another round of strong/severe storms for Sun
afternoon/evening, especially for areas east of the Turnpike where
the extreme instability will be the highest. Bulk shear is actually
higher on Sun than on Sat, So may actually have to keep an an eye on
Sun afternoon, as the better shear may increase the very large hail
and possibly the tornado threat. With all instability and very high
PW values, think flash flooding will again be a threat, so plan on
keeping the flash flood watch going into Sun night as well. Expect
River flooding will once again become an issue by the end of the
weekend.

With all the showers and storms expected on Sun, will see cooler
temperatures across the area in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

The shortwave looks to move well east of the area for the beginning
of the week, with mid level ridging expected to build across the
plains.  This will allow the forecast area to dry out and begin
another warming trend towards the middle of the week. This looks
like a typical summer time pattern, with dry weather expected
through Tue or Wed,  But cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
during peak heating of the day for Thu into Fri as the PW axis
shifts into southern KS. But overall chances for storms look low for
much of next week. Have kept the forecast mostly dry throughout the
work week with near-normal temperatures with as afternoon highs top
out in the vicinity of the 90 degree mark.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Latest radar imagery as of 0530z shows convection has developed
along colliding airmasses and stretching across south central
Kansas. This convection, which is initially impacting KHUT, may
slowly move north over the next few hours, so impacts at KGBD and
KSLN will be monitored closely.

Otherwise, the main aviation concern over the next 24 hours will
be chances for strong and severe storms again beginning this
afternoon and evening. Given the large amounts of instability,
large hail and damaging winds will be possible across south
central and eventually southeast Kansas. Behind the front, MVFR
ceilings will be possible towards the end of the TAF period in
central Kansas. Continue to monitor for amendments and later
issuances for updates.

-Vaughan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  90  67  82 /  20  40  60  40
Hutchinson      72  90  65  80 /  20  30  60  30
Newton          73  89  66  81 /  30  40  60  40
ElDorado        74  89  67  81 /  20  40  60  50
Winfield-KWLD   75  90  67  82 /  10  30  60  50
Russell         65  82  60  75 /  20  10  70  30
Great Bend      67  83  61  76 /  10  10  70  20
Salina          71  89  65  80 /  10  30  70  40
McPherson       72  89  65  80 /  20  30  70  40
Coffeyville     76  90  69  83 /  10  20  60  60
Chanute         75  90  68  82 /  20  20  70  60
Iola            75  90  68  82 /  20  20  60  60
Parsons-KPPF    75  90  69  82 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through late Sunday night
for KSZ052-053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...TAV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
104 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-230615-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
104 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will affect central Kansas,
mainly along and north of highway 50. Very heavy rainfall and
lowland flooding will be the main threat. A few storms may also
contain up to quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

River flooding is ongoing along the Cow Creek across portions of
Rice and Reno counties. Please refer to the latest flood warnings
and statements for the most up to date information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon
and evening, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. Storms are
likely to be severe, with the main threats of two inch diameter
hail and damaging winds of 60-65 mph. But a tornado cannot be ruled
out during the afternoon hours. In addition to the severe weather
threat, flash flooding will be possible as thunderstorms that
develop are likely to produce very heavy rainfall rates. Rises
along area rivers are also possible. A flash flood watch has been
issued for most of southern Kansas to this flooding threat.

River flooding will likely continue through at least Sunday along
the Cow Creek across portions of Rice and Reno counties. See the
latest flood warnings and statements for the most up to date
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
121 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/22/2019                   MARION             KS   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED WITH ROAD NEAR THE
            HIGH SCHOOL IMPASSABLE.

&&

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