River Flood Warning 158, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Overnight tonight, convection initiated across south central
Kansas in an area of strong 850mb moisture transport in the
vicinity of a frontal boundary lifting north across the forecast
area. This convection has gradually filled in throughout the
night, producing large hail of up to tennis ball size in the
strongest cores given the very unstable air (extremely large
CAPE). Throughout the rest of the morning, these storms are
expected to continue lifting north/northeastward ahead of more
chances for showers and storms later this afternoon and evening.

During the day today, the warm moist air mass that has been
located over the forecast area over the past day or so will
persist, once again creating a very unstable environment. A
surface low and cold front will move into the area, which will
provide a focus for strong and severe storm initiation beginning
this afternoon as the cap is eroded. Models indicate that MLCAPE
greater than 4000J/kg will be located across south central and
southeast Kansas with 1000mb-700mb MUCAPE upwards of 6000 J/kg.
Additionally, 700-500mb lapse rates up to 9C/km, dewpoints in the
mid-70s, and decent moisture transport into the region will all
combine to produce some severe storms. In initially discrete
storms, large hail will be the primary threat, though a brief
tornado cannot be completely ruled out. As storms continue to
evolve throughout the evening, storm mode should transition to
more of a cluster of thunderstorms, in which a damaging wind
threat will emerge. Additionally, precipitable water values near
2+ inches along with strong moisture flux convergence at 925mb and
850mb being advected into south central Kansas from the south are
all suggestive of very heavy rain potential in storms that do
develop. Locally heavy downpours will present a flash flooding
threat, particularly across south central and southeast Kansas
where training and backbuilding will be possible throughout the
overnight hours Saturday night. As a result, a flash flood watch
remains in effect from this afternoon through Sunday night.

The front will essentially stall across the area into the day on
Sunday. This will sustain convection at least through Sunday
morning. Additional strong and severe storms will be possible
Sunday afternoon/evening as very large instability returns to the
forecast area, this time focused in southeast Kansas. Once again,
some of these storms are likely to be severe, with shear profiles
favoring supercells capable of initially large hail and then
damaging winds. As low-level shear increases throughout Sunday
evening, a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly in
the vicinity of any local boundaries. Flash flooding will also
continue to be a threat with very high PW values once again. As
the previous discussion mentioned, by Sunday and into Monday,
river flooding is likely to become a concern once again as rivers
begin to respond from recent rainfall. Sunday will also be much
cooler than the previous couple of days, with highs only reaching
into the mid 80s area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Relief from thunderstorms and severe weather will finally come on
Monday as the mid/upper trough finally exits to the east of the
forecast area by midday. This will set up a more zonal mid-level
pattern followed by ridging building in from the west by late
Tuesday evening. Some weak southerly flow may advect enough
moisture into the area for a spotty shower or storm periodically
throughout the first half of the work week, but confidence in this
is low and the bulk of the area should remain dry. Temperatures
will rebound as well producing near-normal afternoon highs each
day.

For the latter half of the workweek, a couple of brief quick-
hitting shortwaves may produce a storm or two across the area, but
in general the mostly dry and summer-like pattern will persist
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Patchy MVFR cigs will affect parts of central and southeast Kansas
early this morning. Otherwise, the main concern is redevelopment
of strong to severe convection this afternoon and evening, mainly
along and east of a Salina to Wichita line. Gusty south winds will
develop ahead of a slow moving front and will be the focus for
the showers and storms this afternoon. This front will gradually
move southeast tonight.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  67  82  59 /  60  60  40  20
Hutchinson      90  65  80  57 /  50  60  40  20
Newton          89  65  81  58 /  50  60  60  20
ElDorado        89  66  81  59 /  60  70  50  20
Winfield-KWLD   90  67  82  60 /  60  70  50  20
Russell         80  60  73  53 /  40  70  40  20
Great Bend      82  60  74  54 /  40  70  40  10
Salina          89  64  79  57 /  50  70  50  20
McPherson       89  64  80  56 /  50  60  40  20
Coffeyville     90  68  83  63 /  40  80  60  50
Chanute         90  67  82  62 /  40  80  60  40
Iola            90  67  82  61 /  30  80  70  40
Parsons-KPPF    90  68  82  62 /  40  80  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through late
Sunday night for KSZ052-053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
523 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-231030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
523 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening, especially across southern Kansas. Storms are likely to be
severe. The main threats in strongest storms will be hail up to
around two inches in diameter and damaging winds to 70 mph, though a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out during the afternoon hours. In
addition to the severe weather threat, flash flooding will be
possible as thunderstorms that develop are likely to produce very
heavy rainfall rates. Rises along area rivers are also possible. A
flash flood watch has been issued for most of southern Kansas to
this flooding threat.

River flooding is ongoing along the Cow Creek across portions of
Rice and Reno counties. Please refer to the latest flood warnings
and statements for the most up to date information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe storms are expected again Sunday afternoon and
evening, especially in southeast Kansas. Similar to Saturday, the
main threats will be hail up to around 2 inches in diameter, wind
gusts to 70mph, and flash flooding. A brief tornado cannot be ruled
out. The flash flood watch extends until Sunday evening.

River flooding will likely continue through at least Sunday along
the Cow Creek across portions of Rice and Reno counties. See the
latest flood warnings and statements for the most up to date
information.

A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday
evening, but confidence is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Vaughan

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
510 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSZ070-071-094-095-221045-
Wilson KS-Greenwood KS-Woodson KS-Elk KS-
510 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Eastern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 545 AM CDT.

* At 507 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles
  west of Gridley to near Toronto to 7 miles east of Atlanta...and
  moving east at 45 mph.

wind gusts to around 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eureka, Fredonia, Yates Center, Howard, Moline, Longton, Toronto,
  Hamilton, Severy, Buffalo, Grenola, Fall River, Neosho Falls, Elk
  Falls, Benedict, Climax, Virgil, New Albany, Coyville and Buxton.

LAT...LON 3733 9651 3776 9632 3812 9606 3811 9596
      3804 9596 3804 9554 3765 9553 3738 9592
      3739 9596 3735 9597 3732 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1009Z 278DEG 44KT 3811 9598 3778 9603 3741 9664

DARMOFAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/22/2019                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RAPIDLY RISING WATER HAS FLOODED BUSINESSES ALONG MAIN
            STREET.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
727 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/22/2019                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RAPIDLY RISING WATER HAS FLOODED BUSINESSES
            ALONG MAIN STREET.

0425 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/22/2019                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANDATORY EVACUATIONS FOR RESIDENCE ON OLIVE
            STREET. WATER ALSO OVER THE ROAD AT MAPLE,
            OLIVE AND WALNUT.

0318 AM     TSTM WND GST     HUTCHINSON AIRPORT      38.07N 97.87W
06/22/2019  M55 MPH          RENO               KS   ASOS

0302 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NICKERSON               38.15N 98.09W
06/22/2019                   RENO               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE FELL ON HOUSE AND CAVED IN ROOF.

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     N STERLING              38.22N 98.21W
06/22/2019  E60 MPH          RICE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0255 AM     TSTM WND GST     LYONS AIRPORT           38.34N 98.23W
06/22/2019  M59 MPH          RICE               KS   AWOS

0242 AM     TSTM WND GST     LYONS                   38.35N 98.20W
06/22/2019  E60 MPH          RICE               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS DOWNED IN TOWN.

0235 AM     TSTM WND GST     LYONS AIRPORT           38.34N 98.23W
06/22/2019  M72 MPH          RICE               KS   AWOS

0232 AM     TSTM WND GST     LYONS                   38.35N 98.20W
06/22/2019  M54 MPH          RICE               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIA KWCH. DAVIS WEATHER STATION.

0213 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N PEABODY             38.20N 97.11W
06/22/2019                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON NIGHTHAWK JUST
            SOUTH OF 90TH.

0157 AM     HAIL             WNW CLAFLIN             38.52N 98.54W
06/22/2019  E2.50 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0154 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE GOESSEL           38.22N 97.33W
06/22/2019  M3.20 INCH       MARION             KS   MESONET

            WUNDERGROUND STATION.

0151 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW PEABODY           38.16N 97.15W
06/22/2019                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER 60TH STREET JUST EAST OF
            LIMESTONE ROAD.

0120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/22/2019                   MARION             KS   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED WITH ROAD NEAR THE
            HIGH SCHOOL IMPASSABLE.

0120 AM     HAIL             2 WNW HUTCHINSON        38.08N 97.95W
06/22/2019  E1.00 INCH       RENO               KS   PUBLIC

            .

1255 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/22/2019  M4.00 INCH       MARION             KS   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

1253 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S PEABODY             38.11N 97.11W
06/22/2019  M3.03 INCH       MARION             KS   MESONET

            WUNDERGROUND STATION. SINCE ABOUT 10 PM
            FRIDAY EVENING.

1231 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/22/2019                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AUTHORITIES ARE CLOSING THE 9TH STREET
            BRIDGE DUE TO TWO FEET OF WATER OVER IT.

1156 PM     HAIL             PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/21/2019  E1.00 INCH       MARION             KS   PUBLIC

1151 PM     HAIL             PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/21/2019  E0.70 INCH       MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

1034 PM     HAIL             PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
06/21/2019  E0.70 INCH       MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

KED