Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

This morning...Expecting another round of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms across the forecast area through mid- late this
morning, in response to increasing 850-700mb warm advection and
moisture transport. Already beginning to see this next round
develop on regional radar and satellite. Ample elevated
instability and effective deep layer shear may support a handful
of storms with large hail. Additionally, more locally heavy
rainfall is likely, with a continued localized flash flood threat.
Consequently, extended the flash flood watch through noon today.

For late this afternoon through tonight, another round of
scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected to move northeast
off the High Plains, as a rather substantial shortwave approaches
from the southwest. Thinking the higher-end severe threat in the
form of very large hail and tornadoes will remain across generally
the western half of Kansas this afternoon and evening. Thinking
by the time storms reach Wichita's forecast area, the primary
threat will transition toward damaging winds with isolated large
hail, as the overall storm mode becomes predominately linear.
Overall severe threat should drop off generally along/east of the
Flint Hills.

The other aspect of late today-tonight's storms will be
additional heavy rainfall, posing a continued localized flash
flood threat. Even through the highest rainfall amounts should be
across central and north-central KS, will issue a new flash flood
watch all the way east through roughly the Flint Hills through
tonight, as it won't take much more rain to produce more flooding.

Monday...another rather significant shortwave ejects northeast
across the Central Rockies and High Plains, giving the Kansas
region more of a glancing blow of large-scale ascent.
Additionally, western KS dryline convergence is not overly
spectacular. All these factors come together for more of a
conditional thunderstorm threat Monday late afternoon-evening.
However, if a storm or two can manage to develop, strong
instability coupled with favorable shear magnitude and orientation
w/respect to the dryline would favor supercells capable of all
severe hazards, generally well west of I-135.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Tuesday...the last of a series of significant shortwaves ejects
northeast across Mid-America. Continued strong instability east of
the dryline along with strengthening deep layer shear should
support one last severe thunderstorm threat Tuesday afternoon-
evening, generally along/east of I-135. Given the possibility for
weaker forcing and slow dryline progression across Wichita's
forecast area, in concert with long/straight hodographs, splitting
supercells capable of all severe hazards look possible.

A quieter weather pattern looks to overspread the region Wed-Fri,
with a possible return to periodic thunderstorm chances by the
weekend.

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Progressive convective system continues to move across ern KS at
this time. So will go with VCTS and a tempo group for TSRA for the
KCNU taf for a few more hours. Of bigger concern will be in the
09- 10z time frame as low level moisture transport look to
increase again across southern KS, for a chance of renewed
convection for the early hours on Sunday. So will with a VCTS for
KICT/KHUT and KGBD. a little uncertain in how far north the
renewed convection will get, so will only go with a VCSH for KSLN
and KRSL.

For most of the daytime hours, will keep MVFR cigs for most
locations as low level moisture remains very high. Another round
of convection will occur over the high plains for Sun afternoon/
evening. So will introduce another round of VCTS for central KS
tafs.

Ketcham

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Another round of storms is expected late this afternoon through
tonight, especially west of the Flint Hills, with locally heavy
rainfall and severe weather likely. Widespread 1-3 inches across
central and north-central Kansas looks like a good bet, with
locally higher amounts. Rainfall amounts should gradually drop off
with eastward extent toward the Flint Hills and eastern Kansas.
Any additional rainfall will only aggravate ongoing flooding
concerns. Many rivers, streams and reservoirs are at or exceeding
their capacity. Significant river flooding is ongoing or expected
at numerous locations. Please heed all evacuation orders, and
please do not drive around barricades or through flooded roads.

Kleinsasser

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  66  85  68 /  60  80  10  10
Hutchinson      80  65  85  67 /  60  90  10  10
Newton          80  64  84  68 /  60  80  10  10
ElDorado        81  66  84  68 /  60  70  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   83  68  85  69 /  50  60  10  10
Russell         77  64  86  64 /  50  90  10  20
Great Bend      77  63  85  64 /  50  90  10  20
Salina          80  66  86  68 /  50  90  20  10
McPherson       80  65  85  67 /  60  90  10  10
Coffeyville     84  70  86  70 /  50  30  10  10
Chanute         83  69  85  69 /  60  40  20  10
Iola            82  69  85  69 /  60  50  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    83  69  85  70 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Ketcham
HYDROLOGY...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
421 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-270930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
421 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through about mid-
morning across the region. Large hail is possible with the
strongest storms. Additional heavy rainfall is likely, which may
lead to localized flash flooding.

Another round of thunderstorms will impact the region mainly late
this afternoon through tonight, with the greatest chances generally
along and west of the Flint Hills corridor. The greatest potential
for severe weather will be across central, north-central and south-
central Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Additional heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding is likely.

Widespread river flooding, some of which is significant, will
continue for several days. Additional rainfall will only aggravate
the current situation. Please see the latest River Flood Warnings
for the latest information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a conditional threat for a few severe thunderstorms Monday
evening west of I-135. If a storm or two can manage to develop, all
severe weather hazards will be possible.

Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected
Tuesday afternoon and night, generally along and east of I-135. All
severe hazards are once again possible, along with heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding.

Significant and high-impact river flooding will continue well into
next week. Please see the latest River Flood Warnings for the
latest information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this morning, and likely late this
afternoon through the evening. Rainfall and flooding reports are
always appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
440 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

KSZ069-083-261015-
Butler KS-Sedgwick KS-
440 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 515 AM CDT.

* At 437 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Benton...moving east at 45 mph.

Hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Park City, Valley Center, Bel
  Aire, Towanda, Benton, Leon, Kechi, Potwin, Northeast Wichita,
  Santa Fe Lake, El Dorado State Park, El Dorado Airport, El Dorado
  Lake and Jabara Airport.

LAT...LON 3772 9732 3783 9741 3791 9721 3791 9715
      3794 9715 3808 9681 3768 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 268DEG 39KT 3776 9713

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
459 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

KSZ047-261045-
Barton KS-
459 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 545 AM CDT.

* At 458 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Pawnee Rock, or 8 miles
  northwest of Radium...moving east at 30 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Great Bend, Ellinwood, Pawnee Rock and Great Bend Airport.

LAT...LON 3841 9903 3845 9848 3826 9848 3826 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0959Z 269DEG 25KT 3829 9897

BUTLER