Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
616 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Currently have a stationary front extending from southeast
Nebraska into far western portions of the OK Panhandle. Surface
low pressure is strengthening over northeast NM ahead of an upper
impulse. Meanwhile, there looks to be a weak warm front or
remnant outflow over northern OK, basically separating the low
70s dps from mid 60s.

Current thinking is that storms will continue to grow upscale
over the TX/OK Panhandles as they gradually push east and
northeast as the evening hours approach. Storms should start to
impinge on western portions of forecast area generally after 6 pm,
affecting areas along I-135 after 8 pm. Feel the best tornado
threat will be southwest of our forecast area, before the storms
congeal into an MCS, with wind and hail then becoming the main
threats. Shifted the axis of heaviest rainfall south compared to
what we had yesterday with the thinking the MCS should stay closer
to the baroclinic zone across southern KS/northern OK and will
also try and dive into the better instability over OK. So feel
the southern few rows of counties will have the highest threat of
additional heavy rainfall tonight.

Also not out of the question a few storms may develop before 5 pm
along the synoptic front over central KS with some agitated CU
showing up on satellite.

Setup for storms looks similar Sunday as it does for today. Storms
are expected to develop first out over far western KS/TX-OK
Panhandles and track east through the evening hours. Storms maybe
a bit more numerous Sun afternoon & evening out west as a more
pronounced shortwave lifts out of NM. While confidence is high
that yet another MCS will affect much of the forecast area Sun
night, also feel that it will be more progressive than the last
few due to stronger mid/upper jet lifting out.

By 12z Mon, upper impulse will be lifting over eastern
Nebraska/western IA with the main upper low rotating across the
Desert Southwest. Dryline/surface trough is expected to extend
west of the forecast area by Mon afternoon. Main question will be
whether there will be enough convergence along it to overcome some
warmer mid level air along with lack of large scale ascent. Would
not be surprised to see a storm or two go up on the boundary late
Mon afternoon, possibly affecting our western fringes Mon
evening.

Main upper low will be lifting across northeast CO/southeast WY by
Tue morning and into western Nebraska by Tue afternoon.
Front/dryline will be more progressive Tue, making it to generally
along the KS Turnpike by the afternoon hours. Storms are expected
to develop along this feature Tue afternoon and push east into
southeast KS by early Tue evening. Severe storms and heavy rain
can be expected with this activity. This should finally be the
last episode of widespread storms from this pesky trough that has
been anchored over the western CONUS for the last week.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Front is expected to be generally situated south of KS by Wed
morning which is where the better storm chances will be Wed. Will
bring back some small pops into the forecast for Thu night into
Fri but confidence is very low as there are some differences in
the medium range models. Better low level moisture looks to return
for Fri night into the weekend which will bring back some storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Main aviation concern will once again be convective trends.

Storms are expected to move-in from western KS and will affect
areas generally along and west of I-135 through 04z. Main threats
will be quarter size hail and strong downburst winds. Storms will
likely not affect KCNU until after 04z and possibly later. This
MCS is expected to exit the forecast area by around sunrise with
storms remaining out of the forecast until Sun night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

Another MCS is expected to migrate out of western KS this evening
into the overnight hours. Highest confidence for heavy rainfall
will be for areas along and southwest of a McPherson, to El Dorado
to Winfield line. This area has the best chance to experience the
MCS while it's still fairly organized. Widespread rainfall in the
1-2 inch range will be possible in these locations. Hoping this
MCS is a bit more progressive than the one last night which may
limit some of the 3+ inch rainfall amounts. Should get a break
again during the day Sunday, with storms once again moving-in from
western KS Sun night. While additional heavy rainfall will be
possible Sun night, confidence is high in this MCS being more
progressive due to stronger mid/upper winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  80  68  83 /  70  20  50  10
Hutchinson      62  80  68  83 /  70  20  60  10
Newton          63  80  67  82 /  80  20  40  10
ElDorado        63  80  68  83 /  80  20  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   64  82  69  83 /  60  20  40  10
Russell         61  79  63  84 /  60  30  60  10
Great Bend      61  79  65  83 /  60  30  70  10
Salina          63  80  67  85 /  70  20  50  10
McPherson       62  79  68  83 /  70  20  50  10
Coffeyville     67  83  70  85 /  60  20  20  10
Chanute         65  82  68  84 /  80  30  30  10
Iola            64  81  68  84 /  90  30  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    66  82  69  84 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
HYDROLOGY...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
439 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-260930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
439 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Another round of thunderstorms is expected tonight. Strong to severe
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible.
Additionally, very heavy rainfall rates on top of already saturated
ground will likely lead to additional flash flooding.

Widespread river flooding, some of which is significant, will
continue for several days. Additional rainfall will only aggravate
the current situation. Please see the latest River Flood Warnings
for the latest information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms will impact the region mainly Sunday
evening , with the greatest chances generally along and west of the
Kansas Turnpike corridor. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threats, along with pockets of very heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding.

There is a conditional threat for a few severe thunderstorms Monday
evening, generally west of I-135. If a storm or two can manage to
develop, all severe weather hazards will be possible.

Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected
Tuesday afternoon and night across mainly eastern Kansas. All severe
hazards are once again possible, along with very heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding.

Significant and high-impact river flooding will continue well into
next week. Please see the latest River Flood Warnings for the latest
information.

Please continue to monitor later forecasts as we refine the threat
areas for each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely tonight. Rainfall and flooding reports
are always appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Lawson

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
834 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N VIOLA               37.57N 97.64W
05/25/2019  M60.00 MPH       SEDGWICK           KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ENE GODDARD           37.68N 97.46W
05/25/2019  E60 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
858 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     TSTM WND GST     SALINA AIRPORT          38.82N 97.62W
05/25/2019  M59 MPH          SALINE             KS   ASOS

&&

ADK