Tornado Warning 15, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
925 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

After coordination with SPC, have added a few more counties up to the
TN border in the Tornado Watch until 08Z. The warm front continues to
make progress northward with temperatures warming into the upper 60s
to around 70, with dew points in the lower to middle 60s. Further
south, southeast inflow continues with temps in the m70s and dew
points in the m60s nosing into west central AL. This air will feed
the incoming QLCS(s) in MS. The HRRR suggests that these QLCS will
maintain a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes feeding off very
high 1km SRH values of 400+ and MLCAPEs of ~500+ just south of the
warm front. The threat may go beyond 08Z in our northeast AL
counties.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Sunday night)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

As previously mentioned, the threat for severe weather will persist
into Sunday morning. The main line is expected to exit the forecast
area around 15Z and some drier air will filter in. There will be a
break in activity before another round of storms is expected with the
arrival of the cold front and the passage of the upper-level system.
Instability will be lower but lapse rates will improve and 0-6km
shear will be approaching 90kts. With winds more unidirectional than
the overnight hours, the main threat will be damaging winds and hail
for the afternoon hours. Locations east of I-65 will have the higher
chances to see severe weather during this time. Precip will come to
an end Sunday night as the system lifts NE. Daytime highs could reach
the lower 70s and fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s behind the cold
front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

The extended period will begin with dry northwest flow aloft in the
wake of a trough lifting northeastward off the mid-Atlantic coast.
Although any lingering postfrontal cloud cover should dissipate
rather quickly in the morning, modest low-level CAA in the wake of a
frontal passage Sunday afternoon will provide cooler max temps in the
mid 60s on Monday and min temps in the mid 40s Monday night, as
conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling. A warming trend
is expected to begin on Tuesday, as a low-amplitude mid-level ridge
translating across the region will provide mostly sunny skies
concurrent with the return of southerly flow in the boundary layer.
We expect highs to reach the m-u 70s both Tuesday/Wednesday, with
lows Wednesday morning only falling into the l-m 50s in a regime of
increasing low-level moisture.

By the middle of next week, our attention will focus on an
amplifying 500-mb longwave trough, which extended range models
suggest will be migrating slowly eastward across the central Plains
on Wednesday. At least a couple of weak disturbances ejecting
northeastward in strengthening southwest flow aloft will cross the TN
Valley from Wednesday-Wednesday night, perhaps bringing a few
showers and thunderstorms to the northwestern half of the area.
However, coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
increase across the same area early Thursday morning, as deeper
moisture begins to return northward in advance of the approaching
trough.

Global models indicate that further deepening/amplification of the
broad longwave trough can be expected on Thursday and Thursday night,
as the system translates slowly eastward across the central Plains
and into the MS Valley, with the intensification process expected to
peak sometime early Friday morning. At the surface, a low initially
across IA will lift east-northeastward into the Great Lakes, with a
Pacific cold front extending southward from the low expected to push
eastward across the local area Thursday afternoon/evening. Latest
guidance suggests that strong forcing for ascent attendant to the
longwave trough will result in upscale growth of a QLCS along the
Pacific cold front, and based on a favorable combination of
atmoshperic lift, instability and deep-layer shear we strongly
suspect that this will produce another severe thunderstorm event for
the TN Valley. Low-level flow will veer to southwest by early Friday
morning, but should result in limited advection of dry air, and with
the axis of the longwave trough remaining to the west of the region,
we anticipate a continuation of clouds and perhaps some showers on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

VFR flight weather conditions will continue through around 06Z at
KMSL and 08Z at KHSV. However, southeast surface winds will abruptly
increase to 15-18kt with gusts around 28kt, with LLWS developing.
Gusts should reach 30kt by 06-08Z with lower ceilings of 015-025agl
expected (MVFR). A few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
this evening, but the main line of thunderstorms arrives between
06-08Z at KMSL and 08-10Z at KHSV. Strong wind gusts will be possible
with the line of thunderstorms. After the thunderstorms and showers
end by 11-12Z, expect a wind shift to the southwest with continued
gustiness up to 30-32kt.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...JMS
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...17

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
636 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-141200-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
636 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

This evening, isolated thunderstorms will move northward along a warm
front into north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, mainly along
and west of I-65. These storms will be capable of hail and gusty
winds. There is also a small risk of a tornado that cannot be ruled
out.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move west to east
through the area late tonight into early Sunday morning, well ahead
of a strong cold front moving in from the west. Damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these clusters of
storms move east across the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

The line of strong to severe thunderstorms may still be across the
eastern half of the area near sunrise Sunday, but should be move out
of the area by mid-morning. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple
of tornadoes will be possible.

Redevelopment of a few thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon
across far Northeast Alabama, as a cold front pushes eastward
through the region. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible as
well with this activity. At this time, damaging winds and large hail
are the main threats.

Another round of thunderstorms are expected to affect the Tennessee
Valley during the later half of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
likely tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
729 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

ALZ016-140115-
Cullman AL-
729 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

At 729 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warrior, or 13 miles northeast of Sumiton, moving north at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cullman, Hanceville, Good Hope, Holly Pond, Dodge City, Baldwin,
Vinemont, Baileyton, West Point and Garden City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8692 3427 8649 3420 8655 3419 8655
      3412 8660 3412 8663 3408 8669 3409 8669
      3408 8670 3405 8668 3406 8671 3403 8670
      3398 8676 3395 8685 3393 8686 3394 8688
      3392 8689 3391 8692 3388 8692 3387 8694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 194DEG 36KT 3386 8685

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
732 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

ALZ004-007-140115-
Lawrence AL-Morgan AL-
732 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MORGAN AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 731 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ashridge, or 11 miles east of Haleyville, moving north at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Decatur, Moulton, Trinity, Hillsboro, Mt Hope, Chalybeate Springs,
Speake, Ne Smith, Caddo and Wren.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike several miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8744 3431 8751 3465 8746 3465 8745
      3466 8744 3462 8702 3430 8717
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 192DEG 43KT 3423 8742

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
810 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

ALZ001-004-005-140145-
Lawrence AL-Lauderdale AL-Limestone AL-
810 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAUDERDALE...NORTHWESTERN
LIMESTONE AND NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 809 PM CDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm near
Courtland, or 12 miles north of Moulton, moving north at 45 mph.

Dime-sized hail was reported with this storm in Moulton. Nickel size
hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Rogersville, Courtland, North Courtland, Hillsboro, Elkmont,
Anderson, Lester, Good Springs and Cartwright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike several miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8691 3467 8708 3467 8709 3468 8711
      3462 8710 3453 8715 3459 8734 3500 8727
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 195DEG 39KT 3465 8721

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
849 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             6 ESE ROGERSVILLE       34.80N 87.18W
04/13/2019  E2.50 INCH       LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
850 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             5 SE ROGERSVILLE        34.77N 87.21W
04/13/2019  E2.50 INCH       LIMESTONE          AL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA. JUST SOUTH
            OF U.S. 72 NEAR ROGERSVILLE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1023 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

ALZ006-009-TNZ076-097-140400-
Madison AL-Jackson AL-Franklin TN-Moore TN-
1023 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN MOORE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1023 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of New Market, or 13 miles east of Moores Mill,
moving north at 60 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Decherd, Cowan, Huntland, Tims Ford Lake, Lexie
Crossroads, Princeton, Harmony, Jericho and Estillfork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8597 3475 8617 3478 8638 3499 8637
      3499 8632 3513 8632 3513 8635 3515 8635
      3514 8636 3526 8635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 189DEG 52KT 3483 8629

30