Tornado Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

545 
WWUS52 KGSP 191840
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

SCC023-087-191850-
/O.EXP.KGSP.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190419T1845Z/
Chester SC-Union SC-
240 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNION COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore the warning will be
allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for Upstate South
Carolina.

If you observed large hail or wind damage, please report it to the
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free,
1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and
the specific location where it occurred.

LAT...LON 3445 8155 3446 8155 3446 8156 3447 8155
      3449 8157 3454 8166 3479 8155 3467 8124
      3457 8131 3457 8142 3450 8142 3450 8144
      3449 8144 3449 8149 3445 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 205DEG 30KT 3467 8147 

$$

TDP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1051 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the forecast area today
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. There is a
good chance that some of these storms could become severe as
the front moves through the area. Cooler temperatures and
lingering showers are expected behind the front. Temperatures
will warm again by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM: Band of precip with embedded linear convective
segments continues to progress eastward into the CWFA. Previous
thinking w.r.t. severe potential remains essentially the same,
and all of the ingredients for high-shear/low-CAPE impacts still
are present or progged to come together by early afternoon. A
number of minor wind damage reports have already been received
from areas affected by the better organized segments, with minor
flood impacts also having developed in the areas near the southern
facing Blue Ridge Escarpment. A Tornado Watch just was issued to
cover the area that has not already seen the stabilizing impacts
of the rain, and is valid until 5 PM EDT. Have updated timing of
PoPs and thunder mention across the CWFA, and temp/dewpt trends
were closely tied to the HRRR output, which is our best choice in
such a rapidly changing environment.

Overall, a closed upper low in the Mid-South will slow down somewhat
while the surrounding trough begins to acquire a negative tilt. This
will likely do two things. One, it will provide a significant
couplet of strong synoptic ascending and descending air associated
with a 120 kt jet streak overhead. Two, the slowing should allow
for diurnal instability over the eastern half of the area, that is,
the area where activity has not yet really fired, to be able to tap
into strong shear (0-1 km BS of 40+ kts) just above the surface
(two key ingredients for severe weather). The leading line of
convection (QLCS) looks to have the greatest widespread severe
threat prior to 4 pm, with severe winds (in excess of 58 mph)
the primary threat due to the potential for a strong rear inflow
jet associated with the QLCS with a secondary threat for both
tornadoes and severe hail. SPC Moderate Risk remains in effect
for the I-77 corridor including Charlotte meaning that scattered
severe thunderstorms are likely. The severe risk gradually decreases
heading west across the FA, but the latest Day 1 outlook is more
or less identical to the previous issuance within the CWFA. The
mode of convection is more up for debate after the initial line as
model guidance does show a secondary frontal feature following the
main one, but the question remains as to how much instability will
be left and how any convection may organize along or out ahead of
it. There remains enough model support to expect some disorganized
convection moving generally SW to NE as llvl flow veers to the SW
with the upper low nearing the FA later this afternoon. Can't rule
out a few supercell thunderstorms developing ahead or along the
main line of convection (if there are breaks) or mini supercells
behind the system, with instability being limiting factor at
that time.  The slow moving nature of convection with the main
line of convection in particular will cause at least isolated
hydro issues to small streams and roadways (WPC slight risk for
excessive rainfall across the region). The strong southerly winds
along and ahead of this system will support gusty winds across
the high elevations, especially SW mountains where a wind advisory
has been posted and continues through noon.

Most areas will see rain and thunderstorms come to an end by this
evening as the main forcing exits NE of the region. However, the
cold core upper low will support snow levels falling to around 4K
feet and potential for accumulating snows at this level with several
inches possible above 5K feet, especially where the best upslope
flow (from the SW) overlaps with good synoptic lift and moisture
across the SW mtns. As of now the main winter weather impacts
appear to be above 5K feet so any winter products will be shelved
for now, but considered on future shifts. Temps for most areas
will only fall into the 40s and 50s (30s higher mtn elevations)
due to continued breezy conditions, so frost should not be an issue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Friday: the short-term fcst picks up at 12z on
Saturday with an impressive upper low centered just to our north
as steep upper ridging spreads over the Western CONUS. Because
this system is essentially cut-off from the northern-stream upper
flow, it will push eastward very slowly and is not expected to
move off the Atlantic Coast until the very end of the period on
Monday. At the sfc, a substantial low pressure system will be
centered to our NNW and over the Ohio River Valley as the cold
front associated with it moves offshore. Over the next 24hrs or
so, the low will remain nearly stationary as a substantial plum
of deep-lyr moisture spreads over much of the CWFA from the west.
The latest model guidance continues to open up the low by Sunday
morning as the system gradually lifts NE of the fcst area and
drier air moves back over the area. For the rest of the period,
drier high pressure centered over the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will persist over the Southeast. As for the sensible fcst, we
will likely have some lingering precip on Sat with the remainder
of the period being dry. With the impressive cold-air advection
expected across the region and unusually low thickness values,
some snow flurries are expected over the higher elevations early
Sat and early Sun. Some accumulating snow is possible above 3500
ft, with a better chance above 5000ft. At this time, I do not
anticipate any winter hazard products will be needed, but if
expected snow amounts trend upwards then hazards cannot be ruled
out. The resulting windy conditions should help inhibit any frost
formation across the active zones (which is everywhere except the
Northern NC Mountains). Temps should warm back into the upper 60s
to low 70s across the lower elevations on Sunday, with more warming
as we move into the extended period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday: Upper low over the Mid-Atlantic will
continue to lift north, with high pressure building in and
increasing thicknesses. Temperatures will increase through the
extended, 5 to maybe even 10 degrees above seasonal. A shortwave
spinning around the upper low may bring some showery activity or
even possible thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, GFS a little stronger
with this idea than ECMWF. Next system gearing up over the Rockies
will push off into the Plains sometime midweek, but there are some
very significant timing differences between the global models, so
frankly opted to keep a fairly generic blend through the end of the
period and into the new day 7. As a note to readers, depending on
how near-term activity shapes up tonight, the extended forecast may
not be updated until Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Rapidly deteriorating conds expected between
12Z and 18Z associated with a dynamic storm system to move through
the region. Model guidance shows that the strong line of showers and
thunderstorms (QLCS) approaching across the deep south will hold
together and even intensify east of I-26 and especially near the I-
77 corridor, including KCLT. Brief SW/W gusts in excess of 40 kts
is possible with the QLCS. Light to occasionally moderate LLWS is
possible, especially between 15Z and 20Z. LLWS issues may linger at
KAVL behind this time as winds veer to the SW. A secondary impulse
of showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with the leading
edge of the upper low are possible just about anywhere between 18Z
and 00Z.

Outlook: Improving conditions are expected early Saturday. Spotty
restrictions cannot be ruled out over the mtns as an upper low
passes by on Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High  85%     High  87%     High  91%     High  87%
KGSP       Med   71%     High  89%     Med   77%     High  80%
KAVL       Med   75%     High  89%     Med   64%     High  90%
KHKY       High  91%     High  87%     Med   75%     High  84%
KGMU       Med   73%     High  91%     Med   77%     High  82%
KAND       Med   79%     Med   77%     High  87%     High  82%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ033-048>052-058-059-
     062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Munroe/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...Munroe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ002-003-005>014-
019-201500-
Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Additionally, periods of heavy rain will occur through this
afternoon. Isolated flash flooding may occur, especially in poorly
drained areas, areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ048>053-058-059-062>064-201500-
Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Periods of heavy rain also will occur through early afternoon.
Isolated flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams,
areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flash flooding to
our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ065-SCZ001-004-201500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Henderson-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rain will occur through early afternoon. Isolated
flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams, areas of
hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to our
office.

NCZ033-201500-
Avery-
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...TORNADO WATCH 88 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Periods of heavy rain also will occur through early afternoon.
Isolated flooding may occur, especially on small creeks and streams,
areas of hilly terrain, or in urban environments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
117 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-004-191815-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
117 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN
STEPHENS...NORTHWESTERN HART AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
215 PM EDT...

At 116 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Carnesville, or 5 miles southwest of Victoria Bryant
State Park, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Seneca, Carnesville, Walhalla, Royston, Westminster, Lavonia, Gumlog,
Canon, Franklin Springs and Bowersville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3425 8334 3428 8335 3482 8302 3479 8288
      3474 8290 3473 8286 3470 8286 3470 8285
      3467 8285 3464 8283 3449 8299 3448 8299
      3449 8294 3426 8311 3427 8312 3424 8318
      3424 8325 3426 8330 3423 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 203DEG 35KT 3427 8325

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
122 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

SCZ007-191745-
Spartanburg SC-
122 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

At 122 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Spartanburg, or over Moore, moving north at 45
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Boiling Springs SC, Cowpens, Mayo, Roebuck, Chesnee,
Croft State Park, Moore, USC Upstate and Cedar Springs.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for western North
Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3479 8212 3519 8201 3519 8189 3518 8187
      3506 8181 3504 8181 3503 8179 3499 8177
      3472 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 198DEG 40KT 3484 8199

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ057-072-191800-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
133 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CABARRUS AND ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kannapolis, moving north at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Salisbury, Downtown Concord, China Grove, Spencer,
Landis, Enochville, Granite Quarry, Cleveland and Faith.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3541 8053 3544 8064 3551 8074 3586 8069
      3584 8067 3583 8061 3582 8061 3583 8060
      3582 8059 3582 8058 3578 8051 3578 8050
      3577 8049 3578 8048 3573 8045 3572 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 195DEG 35KT 3550 8063

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ057-071-072-082-191815-
Rowan NC-Union NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
143 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CABARRUS...SOUTHEASTERN
MECKLENBURG AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 142 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monroe, or near Unionville, moving north at 40 mph. Other strong
thunderstorm cells were located over Cabarrus County east of
Harrisburg and over Mecklenburg County near Mint Hill...also moving
north at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Monroe, South Charlotte, East
Charlotte, West Concord, Matthews, Mint Hill, Indian Trail and
Weddington.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3518 8050 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3517 8039 3518 8037 3517 8036
      3517 8034 3484 8048 3485 8072 3513 8079
      3551 8066 3551 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 195DEG 35KT 3504 8052

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
151 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

GAZ028-029-SCZ002-004-005-010-011-191815-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-
151 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ELBERT...HART...WESTERN
ANDERSON...CENTRAL PICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 150 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of
Pickens to near Seneca to 6 miles west of Elberton, and moving
northeast at 60 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Clemson, Seneca, Elberton, Hartwell, Pickens, Homeland
Park, Central, Northlake and Pendleton.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3397 8264 3399 8265 3397 8278 3399 8283
      3398 8286 3401 8291 3401 8294 3403 8294
      3408 8301 3459 8302 3480 8292 3481 8290
      3484 8290 3498 8283 3506 8276 3505 8274
      3506 8266 3403 8258 3401 8260 3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 207DEG 52KT 3499 8282 3468 8297 3408 8297

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
203 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

NCZ037-057-191845-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-
203 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN DAVIE AND ROWAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Mocksville, or 4 miles southeast of Cooleemee,
moving north at 50 mph. Other strong cells will move from Cabarrus
County and into Rowan County through 230 pm.

Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Mocksville, Kannapolis, China Grove, Spencer, Landis,
Enochville, Granite Quarry, Rockwell and Bermuda Run.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3551 8067 3605 8051 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038 3590 8037
      3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8039 3585 8042
      3583 8043 3583 8049 3577 8045 3574 8046
      3571 8033 3568 8033 3559 8021 3551 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 199DEG 42KT 3579 8049

MOORE