Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
817 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop from the west this
afternoon and evening ahead of a weak cold front. Drier air will
arrive from the west on Tuesday behind the cold front. A weak low
pressure system will then approach from the west on Wednesday.
Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms will likely
return Thursday through much of the weekend under a shallow ridge of
high pressure over the southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 7:55 PM EDT Monday: the main line of convection is
currently moving thru the middle of the CWFA as expected,
and we have a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the
entire fcst area until 1 am. The leading edge of the convection
has become more defined over the past hour or so, and severe
warnings have been issued for it. This main line of storms
should be moving east of the CWFA by 04 or 05z with just some
lingering showers, and maybe an occasional lighting strike,
behind it. Otherwise, after the front passes overnight (with
some convection possibly lingering as late as 06Z), low-level
moisture from any storms that do occur could result in fog
tomorrow morning again. Will watch this trend in future
updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 pm EDT Monday: High pressure will be in place across the
region for Tuesday night through Thursday. This will lead to
seasonably warm temperatures. Humidity will be lower than the recent
pattern with some 50s dewpoints in the mountains and lower 60s
dewpoints in the Piedmont. Due to the lack of any forcing and the
drier air, convective activity will be very limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 pm EDT Monday: Mid level ridging is expected to develop
across the south-Atlantic states for late week into the weekend.
This will lead to a very typical summer pattern with near normal
temperatures and a slowly increasing humidity. Mainly afternoon and
evening shower and thundestorms will be possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: a line of thunderstorms associated with
the frontal passage is now moving thru the fcst area and will
likely cause brief restrictions at all taf sites, and some gusty
winds, thru roughly 04z or so. This was handled with TEMPOs for
TSRA and 25 to 35kt gusts at each site with VCSH in the prevailing
line. The system should move east of the fcst area overnight, with
some showers lingering in its wake for a few hours. I kept a TEMPO
for IFR cigs and MVFR visby at KAVL for tomorrow morning for a few
hours, although the other sites could also go down briefly as well.
Other than that, winds will weaken overnight and eventually veer
around to a more WLY and then NWLY direction thru the day tomorrow.
Cloud cover should scatter out during the morning with sct mid to
high clouds for tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Outlook: Diurnally-driven shower and thunderstorm activity focused
during the afternoon/evening will be possible each day through the
rest of the week. Late night to early morning fog and stratus will
also be possible each day, especially following periods of heavier
rain.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   65%     High  93%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
414 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-252015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
414 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to cross the area this evening and
tonight, entering the mountains around 6pm; moving southeastward;
and exiting the forecast area by midnight. Some of these storms may
have damaging wind gusts, with large hail a secondary concern; along
with cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
847 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

NCZ504>510-SCZ003-006-007-011-012-019-250130-
Greater Burke NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
Eastern Polk NC-Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-
Polk Mountains NC-Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
847 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
RUTHERFORD...POLK...SOUTH CENTRAL BURKE...LAURENS...EASTERN
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN
GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 847 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles southwest of
Marion to 15 miles southwest of Columbus to 9 miles northeast of
Abbeville, and moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Laurens, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Columbus,
Greenville Downtown, Marion, Greenville Eastside, Greer and Mauldin.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3423 8229 3508 8241 3567 8206 3565 8169
      3509 8190 3432 8186 3430 8190 3424 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 249DEG 28KT 3565 8207 3509 8240 3429 8229

KRENTZ

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