Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
817 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop from the west this
afternoon and evening ahead of a weak cold front. Drier air will
arrive from the west on Tuesday behind the cold front. A weak low
pressure system will then approach from the west on Wednesday.
Typical summertime afternoon and evening thunderstorms will likely
return Thursday through much of the weekend under a shallow ridge of
high pressure over the southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 7:55 PM EDT Monday: the main line of convection is
currently moving thru the middle of the CWFA as expected,
and we have a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the
entire fcst area until 1 am. The leading edge of the convection
has become more defined over the past hour or so, and severe
warnings have been issued for it. This main line of storms
should be moving east of the CWFA by 04 or 05z with just some
lingering showers, and maybe an occasional lighting strike,
behind it. Otherwise, after the front passes overnight (with
some convection possibly lingering as late as 06Z), low-level
moisture from any storms that do occur could result in fog
tomorrow morning again. Will watch this trend in future
updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 pm EDT Monday: High pressure will be in place across the
region for Tuesday night through Thursday. This will lead to
seasonably warm temperatures. Humidity will be lower than the recent
pattern with some 50s dewpoints in the mountains and lower 60s
dewpoints in the Piedmont. Due to the lack of any forcing and the
drier air, convective activity will be very limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 pm EDT Monday: Mid level ridging is expected to develop
across the south-Atlantic states for late week into the weekend.
This will lead to a very typical summer pattern with near normal
temperatures and a slowly increasing humidity. Mainly afternoon and
evening shower and thundestorms will be possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: a line of thunderstorms associated with
the frontal passage is now moving thru the fcst area and will
likely cause brief restrictions at all taf sites, and some gusty
winds, thru roughly 04z or so. This was handled with TEMPOs for
TSRA and 25 to 35kt gusts at each site with VCSH in the prevailing
line. The system should move east of the fcst area overnight, with
some showers lingering in its wake for a few hours. I kept a TEMPO
for IFR cigs and MVFR visby at KAVL for tomorrow morning for a few
hours, although the other sites could also go down briefly as well.
Other than that, winds will weaken overnight and eventually veer
around to a more WLY and then NWLY direction thru the day tomorrow.
Cloud cover should scatter out during the morning with sct mid to
high clouds for tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Outlook: Diurnally-driven shower and thunderstorm activity focused
during the afternoon/evening will be possible each day through the
rest of the week. Late night to early morning fog and stratus will
also be possible each day, especially following periods of heavier
rain.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   65%     High  93%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
414 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-252015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
414 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to cross the area this evening and
tonight, entering the mountains around 6pm; moving southeastward;
and exiting the forecast area by midnight. Some of these storms may
have damaging wind gusts, with large hail a secondary concern; along
with cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
732 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-062-064-065-250000-
Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Henderson NC-
Madison NC-Mitchell NC-Avery NC-Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
732 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MACON...
TRANSYLVANIA...NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON...CENTRAL JACKSON...MADISON...
MITCHELL...AVERY...EASTERN HAYWOOD...BUNCOMBE AND YANCEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 731 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of
Erwin to 11 miles southwest of Burnsville to 5 miles east of
Franklin, and moving east at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, Hendersonville, Brevard, Spruce Pine,
Waynesville, Burnsville, Marshall, Newland, Beech Mountain and East
Asheville.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3628 8190 3612 8181 3598 8186 3599 8188
      3570 8229 3559 8229 3554 8220 3507 8276
      3505 8306 3529 8292 3523 8322 3506 8317
      3505 8315 3511 8339 3606 8262 3597 8261
      3598 8251 3616 8222 3612 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 278DEG 34KT 3622 8235 3583 8247 3516 8328

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
745 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

SCZ002-003-005>007-250030-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
745 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
EDT...

At 745 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pickens, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Spartanburg, Easley, Pickens, Greer, Taylors,
Berea, Boiling Springs SC, Travelers Rest and Liberty.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3497 8276 3519 8190 3518 8187 3508 8182
      3494 8178 3479 8271
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 257DEG 21KT 3490 8267

KRENTZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
815 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

GAZ029-SCZ006-010>012-250100-
Elbert GA-Laurens SC-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Greater Greenville SC-
815 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ELBERT...WEST
CENTRAL LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND
CENTRAL ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

At 814 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 17 miles south of
Greenville Downtown to 12 miles southeast of Anderson to 3 miles
northwest of Elberton, and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Honea Path, Due West, Iva, Lake Secession, Donalds, Lowndesville,
Russell State Park, Lake Russell, Bowman and Shoals Junction.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3418 8309 3436 8252 3460 8246 3461 8218
      3436 8231 3434 8233 3430 8234 3412 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 247DEG 32KT 3459 8238 3436 8252 3414 8290

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
824 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

NCZ053-064-065-505-507-509-SCZ002-003-005-006-010-250115-
Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Henderson NC-
Polk Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
824 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...WESTERN
RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN
POLK...SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...CENTRAL GREENVILLE...NORTHEASTERN
ANDERSON AND PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 824 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles east of Downtown Asheville to 10 miles
north of Pickens to near Anderson, and moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Easley, Hendersonville, Pickens, West
Greenville, East Asheville, Arden, Berea, Black Mountain and Welcome.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3566 8207 3510 8241 3463 8232 3454 8273
      3501 8281 3560 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 254DEG 22KT 3560 8244 3503 8277 3453 8266

KRENTZ