Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
233 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The threat for severe weather continues to be the main challenge
in the short-term. Cold front approaching the area is moving into
a moist, unstable atmosphere. Convection from earlier MCV moving
across NE Wisconsin while additional storms form near the surface
front.

Somewhat drier air will move into the area overnight, but low-
level mositure will be sufficient for areas of fog.

Weak ripple in WNW flow aloft may set off isolated convection,
perhaps associated with convergence along lake breeze.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Another cold front is expected to move through the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening, and bring thunderstorms to the forecast
area. CAPE is expected to build to 1500-2500 j/kg ahead of the
boundary, as deep layer shear increases to 25 to 35 knots. SPC
has the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather, which
seems reasonable for now. Convergence along the boundary is not
expected to be very strong, due to low-level westerly flow, so
coverage should be scattered.

Canadian high pressure is expected to build into the region for
the end of the work week, and bring dry weather, cooler
temperatures and low humidity.

A new development is the potential for precipitation on Saturday,
as WAA on the northwest periphery of the departing high, a short-
wave trof, and a coupled upper jet impact the region. This should
be a quick hitter, with Canadian high pressure returning for the
end of the weekend and early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 647 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

A cold front and upper level disturbance will combine
to produce showers and thunderstorms as they move across the
region today. IFR conditions and strong surface wind gusts are
possible with the thunderstorms, with VFR conditions elsewhere.
The activity will end from west to east this evening.

Some ground fog or low stratus is possible late tonight through
about 12z Tuesday, then VFR conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the daytime hours.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......JKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-061645-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are
possible, especially from mid-afternoon through mid-evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is also a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Some storms may become severe, with damaging winds and
large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-061645-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
1145 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms with strong winds, hail and frequent lightning could
be a threat to mariners late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is also a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Lightning and strong winds will pose a hazard to
mariners.

Kieckbusch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
141 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N RHINELANDER         45.66N 89.41W
08/05/2019                   ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN TOWN OF PINE LAKE.

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THREE LAKES             45.79N 89.16W
08/05/2019                   ONEIDA             WI   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. SEVERAL 10 INCH MAPLES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
148 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND GST     MERRILL                 45.18N 89.68W
08/05/2019  M37 MPH          LINCOLN            WI   AWOS

            MEASURED AT RRL AWOS

&&

TIMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
214 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     MERRILL                 45.18N 89.68W
08/05/2019  E48 MPH          LINCOLN            WI   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

HYKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
235 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARGONNE                 45.66N 88.88W
08/05/2019                   FOREST             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            A FEW TREES DOWN ON THE FARM.

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FENCE                   45.75N 88.43W
08/05/2019                   FLORENCE           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN THE CITY.

&&

SAC

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