Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
608 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

The threat for severe weather continues to be the main challenge
in the short-term. Cold front approaching the area is moving into
a moist, unstable atmosphere. Convection from earlier MCV moving
across NE Wisconsin while additional storms form near the surface
front.

Somewhat drier air will move into the area overnight, but low-
level mositure will be sufficient for areas of fog.

Weak ripple in WNW flow aloft may set off isolated convection,
perhaps associated with convergence along lake breeze.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Another cold front is expected to move through the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening, and bring thunderstorms to the forecast
area. CAPE is expected to build to 1500-2500 j/kg ahead of the
boundary, as deep layer shear increases to 25 to 35 knots. SPC
has the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather, which
seems reasonable for now. Convergence along the boundary is not
expected to be very strong, due to low-level westerly flow, so
coverage should be scattered.

Canadian high pressure is expected to build into the region for
the end of the work week, and bring dry weather, cooler
temperatures and low humidity.

A new development is the potential for precipitation on Saturday,
as WAA on the northwest periphery of the departing high, a short-
wave trof, and a coupled upper jet impact the region. This should
be a quick hitter, with Canadian high pressure returning for the
end of the weekend and early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Cold front continues to move across area. IFR conditions and
strong surface wind gusts are occurring with strongest
thunderstorms, with VFR conditions elsewhere. The activity will
end from west to east this evening.

Some ground fog or low stratus is possible late tonight through
about 12z Tuesday, then VFR conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the daytime hours.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......JKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-062045-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are
possible into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large
hail are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to contact the National Weather Service with
reports of severe weather.

LMZ521-522-541>543-062045-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
345 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms with strong winds and frequent lightning will be a
threat to mariners into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Lightning and strong winds will pose a hazard to
mariners.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             2 NNW WAUSAU            44.99N 89.65W
08/05/2019  E0.88 INCH       MARATHON           WI   PUBLIC

            REPORT COURTESY OF WSAW-TV.

&&

HYKIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
514 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ031-038-039-052315-
Shawano WI-Outagamie WI-Brown WI-
514 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROWN...NORTHERN OUTAGAMIE AND
EASTERN SHAWANO COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 514 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Navarino Wildlife Area, or 12 miles south of Shawano, moving east at
35 mph.

Half inch hail, heavy rainfall and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized urban flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4451 8871 4459 8868 4459 8861 4468 8861
      4468 8864 4474 8862 4457 8777 4433 8787
      4433 8789 4431 8789
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 287DEG 30KT 4460 8857

Kieckbusch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
538 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERRILL                 45.18N 89.68W
08/05/2019                   LINCOLN            WI   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMB SNAPPED. VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

SAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
539 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

WIZ031-038>040-049-050-074-052345-
Calumet WI-Southern Oconto County WI-Shawano WI-Kewaunee WI-
Outagamie WI-Manitowoc WI-Brown WI-
539 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROWN...KEWAUNEE...NORTHERN
CALUMET...EASTERN OUTAGAMIE...MANITOWOC AND EASTERN SHAWANO COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Pulaski to 10 miles west of Green Bay to near
Appleton. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail, torrential and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Green Bay, Appleton, Manitowoc, Kewaunee, Bay Shore Park, Kaukauna,
Little Chute, Kimberly, Pulaski and Brillion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4423 8840 4424 8840 4424 8845 4429 8860
      4450 8829 4474 8834 4467 8793 4463 8793
      4466 8787 4457 8739 4432 8748 4418 8745
      4407 8759 4402 8762 4399 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 288DEG 34KT 4466 8826 4448 8822 4432 8846

Kieckbusch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     TSTM WND GST     ASHWAUBENON             44.46N 88.08W
08/05/2019  M43 MPH          BROWN              WI   ASOS

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 E WAUSAU             44.96N 89.43W
08/05/2019  M2.30 INCH       MARATHON           WI   PUBLIC

            TOWN OF EASTON. REPORT COURTESY OF WAOW-TV.

&&

HYKIN