Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Green Bay, WI

372 
WWUS53 KGRB 250217
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
917 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

WIC085-250330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190925T0330Z/
Oneida WI-
917 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR ONEIDA COUNTY...

At 917 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northwest of Rainbow Flowage to near Willow
Reservoir to near Prentice, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Willow Reservoir around 920 PM CDT.
  Rainbow Flowage around 925 PM CDT.
  Newbold and Woodboro around 940 PM CDT.
  Rhinelander around 945 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Mc
Naughton, Gagen, Lower Tomahawk River Natural Area, Harshaw, Starks,
Hazelhurst, Crescent Corner, Pelican Lake, Tomahawk River Pines
Natural Area and Clearwater Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4589 9004 4590 8930 4586 8930 4586 8917
      4590 8918 4589 8905 4547 8904 4547 8942
      4556 8943 4556 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 282DEG 40KT 4591 8964 4567 8989 4559 9020 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurimski

835 
WWUS53 KGRB 250236
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
936 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

WIC085-250330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190925T0330Z/
Oneida WI-
936 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR ONEIDA COUNTY...

At 936 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southwest of Eagle River to near Woodboro to
near Tripoli, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Newbold and Woodboro around 940 PM CDT.
  Rhinelander around 945 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Mc
Naughton, Gagen, Lower Tomahawk River Natural Area, Harshaw, Starks,
Hazelhurst, Crescent Corner, Pelican Lake, Clearwater Lake and
Lennox.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4590 8930 4586 8930 4586 8917 4590 8918
      4589 8905 4547 8904 4547 8942 4556 8943
      4556 9004 4589 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 282DEG 40KT 4587 8936 4563 8961 4555 8992 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurimski

096 
WWUS53 KGRB 250250
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
950 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

WIC085-250330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190925T0330Z/
Oneida WI-
950 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY...

At 950 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southeast of Eagle River to near Rhinelander
to near Tomahawk, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
eastern Oneida County, including the following locations... Gagen,
Clearwater Lake, Lennox, Starks, Enterprise, Crescent Corner, Pelican
Lake, Sugar Camp, Monico and Roosevelt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4590 8930 4586 8930 4586 8917 4590 8918
      4589 8905 4547 8904 4547 8942 4556 8943
      4556 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 282DEG 40KT 4584 8914 4560 8939 4552 8970 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurimski

253 
WWUS53 KGRB 250300
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

WIC085-250310-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190925T0330Z/
Oneida WI-
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central and northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4590 8930 4586 8930 4586 8917 4590 8918
      4589 8905 4547 8904 4547 8942 4556 8943
      4556 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 282DEG 40KT 4582 8899 4558 8924 4550 8955 

$$

Kurimski

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
627 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front moving into the northern Mississippi Valley early this
afternoon. Outside of some rain over northern Minnesota, the front
has been inactive across the region so far. After a cool morning,
temps and dewpoints have been steadily rising through the day
over Wisconsin, and some dewpoints approaching 65 degrees are
showing up on observations over the southwest part of the state.
This trend should continue through the rest of the afternoon as a
35 to 40 kt low level jet cranks up ahead of the front and advects
deeper moisture to the northeast. Expectations remain that
improving convective parameters will set the stage for rapid
thunderstorm development from northern Iowa to western Wisconsin
in the 21-00z time period. As those thunderstorms track east,
severe thunderstorm potential is the main forecast concern.

Tonight...The cold front will track east and across the region
bringing the potential for severe weather and localized flooding.
Convective parameters, with most unstable capes up to 1500 j/kg
and effective shears of 30 to 40 kts, will likely peak this
evening as the thunderstorms enter central and north-central WI
around the 00-02z time period. Strengthening wind profiles with a
low level jet around 50 kts, and 0-1 km/0-3 km helicities in the
200-300 range will make damaging winds the primary concern, with
bowing segments possible. Large hail could also occur in the
strongest storms. Given the high helicities, cannot rule out an
isolated tornado as well. Instability is expected diminish
relatively quickly through the evening, and HREF max reflectivity
paintball show storms should be weakening as they move into
northeast WI late in the evening into early overnight. Some risk
that strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall could persist into
northeast WI despite an overall weakening trend of the storms.
Most storms should be exiting northeast WI during the 06-08z time
period as winds turn to the west and remain breezy behind the
front. Low temps will remain mild, and range from the mid 50s to
low 60s across the region.

Wednesday...The cold front is forecast to move into northern Lower
Michigan by early Wednesday morning. But flattened upper troughing
is expected to remain overhead through the day. Combined with
100-200 j/kg of instability that is anticipated to develop with
the heat of the day, could see some showers or maybe a rumble of
thunder develop during the afternoon, mostly over northern WI.
West winds will be breezy with gusts to 30 mph possible. Highs
ranging from the low 60s over the far north to low 70s over east-
central WI.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

High pressure will track to the south of the area Wednesday night
and Thursday, keeping the area dry with temperatures just below
normal for this time of year. Rain chances return by the end of
the work week as a low pressure system approaches the region from
the west. After a brief break in precipitation early in the
weekend, the unsettled pattern returns later in the weekend and
into early next week as a series of low pressure systems bring
several chances for additional rain showers and thunderstorms.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

A cold front will produce a line of showers and thunderstorms
as it moves across the area tonight. MVFR conditions are expected with
the arrival of the rain, with local IFR in thunderstorms. Low level
wind shear is possible late this evening with south winds at 10 knots
at the surface with southwest winds around 50 knots at 2000 ft agl.

The cold front will exit the area early Wednesday, with gusty west winds
and VFR conditions likely by noon. Good flying weather is generally
expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......RDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
737 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-260045-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
737 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely tonight. Some storms may be severe, with
damaging winds being the main concern. Large hail, isolated tornadoes,
and localized flooding will also be possible. A tornado watch is
in effect for areas west of the Fox Valley and lakeshore through
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

The next chance for thunderstorms arrives Thursday night into
Friday evening. At this time, it appears that none of these storms
will become severe. However, heavy rainfall will be possible.

Additional thunderstorm chances are expected for Sunday into next
Tuesday. It is too early to determine whether any of these storms
may become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-260045-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
737 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible late tonight. Any storms that develop
will pose a hazard to boaters on the lake and bay.

South to southwest will increase up to 25 knots tonight. In
addition, waves will build to 3 to 5 feet on the Lake tonight.
These winds and waves will lead to hazardous conditions for small
craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are also possible Thursday night into Friday night
and again Sunday into next Tuesday. Any storms that develop will
pose a hazard to boaters on the lake and bay.

Southwest winds will shift to the west Wednesday with gusts to 25
knots possible. This will lead to hazardous conditions for small
craft through Wednesday afternoon.

South winds and high waves may become a hazard to small craft on
on Friday.

RDM/Bersch