Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
157 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front moving to the southeast over far northwest Wisconsin early
this afternoon. A few storms popped over northern WI by late
morning, in a region of low level moisture convergence, and
quickly became near severe. Instability has been slowly growing
ahead of the front, with mixed layer capes exceeding 1200 j/kg.
Effective shears are highest over western WI, but 25 to 30 kts of
deep layer shear will be supportive of strong to severe storms
developing along the front this afternoon. High resolution
guidance indicates thunderstorms growing upscale across north-
central initially, before spreading southeast into the Fox Valley
around 5-6 pm. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main
threats with the strongest storms. Forecast concerns mainly
revolve around the severe thunderstorm threat into this evening.

Tonight...The cold front will be moving southeast across northeast
WI in the evening, exiting over northern Lake Michigan and
southern WI around 10 pm. Instability will be weakening rather
quickly after around 7 pm, so think the threats from the strongest
storms will mainly become strong damaging winds over northeast WI
until the storms exit. Clouds will decrease thereafter, as
northwest winds gradually push in cooler and drier air. Lows
ranging from near 50 in the northwoods to the low 60s over east-
central WI.

Thursday...The region will be on the southern periphery of
troughing centered over northern Ontario. Models project ample dry
air in the mid to upper levels, with an inversion present in the
800-700mb layer. Should have enough moisture in the low levels
after the recent rains for some flat fair weather cu popping with
the heat of the day. Cooler highs ranging through the 70s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Dry conditions are expected Thursday night through Friday night as
surface high pressure slides across the Great Lakes and upper
ridging works into the northern Plains. Mostly clear skies, a dry
air mass and light winds will provide for a couple cool nights,
especially in the typical cold spots of central and north central
WI, where 40s are expected. Mostly sunny skies are expected on
Friday with highs in the 70s to around 80, which is slightly below
normal for this time of year.

Dry weather should continue into Saturday morning as the surface
high will slide east of the region. By Saturday afternoon, weak
pieces of shortwave energy will move from the northern Plains into
the Great Lakes. Still some uncertainty on location and timing as
these features are tough to pin down, especially this far out.
Chance or slight chance POPs seems reasonable from Saturday
afternoon/evening into Sunday morning. Model disagreement
continues from Sunday into early next week, with the
location/timing of shortwaves, boundaries, and possible complexes
of storms. Overall, temps look to be near or slightly below normal
through the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

A cold front remains expected to move across the region this
afternoon and evening. VFR conditions can be expected until
thunderstorms become more widespread this afternoon. Some of the
thunderstorms could be strong to severe during the middle
afternoon to early evening hours, with strong winds and large hail
being the main threats. Winds will shift to the west and
northwest behind the front by early evening as showers and
thunderstorms come to an end from northwest to southeast. Good
flying weather is expected thereafter with relatively light winds
and fair weather clouds popping across the area by late Wednesday
morning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Bersch
AVIATION.......MPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
203 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-081915-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
203 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds and large hail through the end of the evening. Heavy
rainfall could also lead to localized urban flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms at times from Saturday
afternoon through next Tuesday. It is too early to determine
if any of the storms would become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated, especially this afternoon
into this evening. Spotters are requested to report wind gusts
over 40 mph, wind damage, hail over a half inch in diameter,
and heavy rainfall or flooding.

LMZ521-522-541>543-081915-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
203 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms with strong winds and hail may pose a serious
risk for mariners through the evening. Small craft should
exercise caution this afternoon due to gusty southwest winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms may pose a risk to mariners at times from Saturday
night into early next week.

MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
319 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ048>050-072115-
Calumet WI-Winnebago WI-Manitowoc WI-
319 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WINNEBAGO, CALUMET, AND
MANITOWOC COUNTIES...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Central Lake Winnebago, or near Oshkosh, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Chilton, Brillion, Valders, St. Nazianz, St Anna, Camp
Rokilio Scout Camp, High Cliff State Park, Central Lake Winnebago and
Northern Lake Winnebago.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4390 8862 4418 8855 4421 8782 4389 8780
      4389 8816 4394 8816 4394 8840 4389 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 263DEG 29KT 4404 8843

MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ048>050-072130-
Calumet WI-Winnebago WI-Manitowoc WI-
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALUMET...SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO
AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
High Cliff State Park, or 11 miles south of Appleton, moving east at
30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manitowoc, Chilton, Brillion, Cleveland, Valders, St. Nazianz, St
Anna, Camp Rokilio Scout Camp, High Cliff State Park and Central Lake
Winnebago.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4389 8845 4418 8845 4424 8797 4424 8789
      4425 8789 4429 8758 4395 8766 4390 8769
      4389 8816 4394 8816 4394 8840 4389 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 263DEG 28KT 4410 8833

MPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
341 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             COLEMAN                 45.06N 88.03W
08/07/2019  E0.88 INCH       MARINETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TIMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
359 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             6 NW POUND              45.15N 88.12W
08/07/2019  E1.50 INCH       MARINETTE          WI   PUBLIC

            SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY
            PUBLIC ON COUNTY HWY P

&&

TIMK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
412 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     HAIL             OCONTO                  44.88N 87.88W
08/07/2019  E1.00 INCH       OCONTO             WI   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER IN OCONTO.

&&

MG