Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
808 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Friday)...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Tonight: A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop over the
Rocky Mountains and propagate over the region during the late
evening hours tonight. East to southeasterly winds with magnitudes
around 20 mph have been observed over Oakley, Goodland, and
Oberlin, advecting low level moisture from eastern Kansas. The
more moist areas, CAPE values are around, depending on the model
used, 1500 J/kg to 3000 J/kg. All of which are producing strong
thunderstorms developing beginning around midnight tonight. The
main impact of the storm will be excessive rainfall amounts
greater than 1.0", hail stones up to the size golf balls, and wind
gusts around 70 mph possible. The exact track of where the main
cell develops is still uncertain, but at this point in time, it
appears that the storm will track over the Nebraska counties, Yuma
County in Colorado, and Cheyenne, Rawling, Decatur, and Norton
Counties in Kansas. If the storms tracks either north or south the
tight moisture gradient will shift in its respective direction.
After the storms propagate further east, left over low level
moisture and northeasterly upslope flow will form low stratus and
the potential for fog over the western portions of the area during
the early morning hours. Expect low temperatures across the
region to span the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Substantially cooler air is anticipated tomorrow and
the low level moisture produced by the overnight MCS will
stabilize the atmosphere. Cloudy conditions and scattered showers
are still anticipated due to storm development to the west, but
convection will be limited over the region. CAPE values are
anticipated to be around 500-1000 J/kg, but there isn't much of a
lifting mechanism that will reach the more unstable air.

Friday: Friday morning, some dense fog is possible over the
majority of the region as the 900-800 hPa layer is fully
saturated. Fog should dissipate by the early afternoon hours.
Upper level ridge remains over the south-central US, which will
enable a shortwave trough to develop over the region, bringing the
potential for scattered thunderstorms during the evening hours.

PUB-Backup ~Skelly~

.LONG TERM (Saturday-Wednesday)...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The upper level ridge will remain relatively stationary over
Texas throughout the long term forecast. A low pressure center
located off of the coast of the Pacific Northwest will keep
ejecting shortwave troughs daily over the region. What this means
is a daily chance at showers and thunderstorms. The exact timing
will depend on when the shortwave arrives, but nevertheless,
scattered to numerous storms are anticipated. Saturday afternoon a
stronger shortwave is resolved to develop over the region, which
may spark a stronger complex of storms.

On Monday afternoon the previously mentioned Pacific based storm
is being resolved by both the ECMWF and GFS to propagate around
the upper level ridge. The low pressure center will form a cold
front that is forecast to travel over the region, creating another
day of severe weather. All in all, the extended forecast period
is active, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, some
severe.

Temperatures will fluctuate between the mid to upper 80s and the
low 90s during this forecast period. It'll be dependent on how
strong the shortwaves are that develop over the region. Overnight
lows will range from the low to upper 60s.

PUB-Backup ~Skelly~

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 800 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Aside from a potential for thunderstorms late this evening into
tonight, between 03-07Z at the GLD terminal and 06-10Z at the MCK
terminal, VFR conditions are anticipated to predominate through
the TAF period. Light easterly winds will prevail, though
gusty/erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any
thunderstorms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1034 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-090445-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1034 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019 /1134 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will progress eastward from Colorado into
western Kansas overnight. Although severe weather is not
anticipated, a few storms may be capable of producing dime to penny
size hail. Locally heavy rainfall may result in hazardous travel
conditions, particularly along Interstate 70 from Burlington east to
Oakley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain possible each
day through the upcoming weekend. Isolated severe storms will be
possible, however, predictability remains well below average.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Vincent

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
947 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

COZ091-080430-
Kit Carson County CO-
947 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM MDT...

At 947 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Seibert, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stratton, Seibert and Vona.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 402 and
426.

LAT...LON 3938 10301 3950 10279 3927 10245 3905 10283
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 325DEG 12KT 3938 10286

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1004 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

COZ091-080445-
Kit Carson County CO-
1004 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
1045 PM MDT...

At 1004 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stratton, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Stratton, Bethune and Vona.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 410 and 436.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 193 and 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3928 10279 3947 10269 3945 10222 3908 10239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 288DEG 11KT 3934 10264

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1007 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

COZ091-KSZ013-027-080445-
Kit Carson County CO-Wallace KS-Sherman KS-
1007 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL KIT CARSON...
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM
MDT...

At 1007 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Kanorado, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goodland, Kanorado and Ruleton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 0 and 24.
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 446 and 450.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 10223 3957 10188 3927 10153 3901 10201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 227DEG 16KT 3919 10208

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1049 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

KSZ001-013-080530-
Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
1049 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND
NORTHERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 1130 PM
MDT/1230 AM CDT/...

At 1049 PM MDT/1149 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles northwest of Ruleton, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis and Wheeler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 10139 3937 10189 3938 10198 3946 10205
      3958 10205 3977 10193 3989 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 228DEG 18KT 3948 10196

Vincent