Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1057 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Friday)...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Tonight: A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop over the
Rocky Mountains and propagate over the region during the late
evening hours tonight. East to southeasterly winds with magnitudes
around 20 mph have been observed over Oakley, Goodland, and
Oberlin, advecting low level moisture from eastern Kansas. The
more moist areas, CAPE values are around, depending on the model
used, 1500 J/kg to 3000 J/kg. All of which are producing strong
thunderstorms developing beginning around midnight tonight. The
main impact of the storm will be excessive rainfall amounts
greater than 1.0", hail stones up to the size golf balls, and wind
gusts around 70 mph possible. The exact track of where the main
cell develops is still uncertain, but at this point in time, it
appears that the storm will track over the Nebraska counties, Yuma
County in Colorado, and Cheyenne, Rawlins, Decatur, and Norton
Counties in Kansas. If the storms tracks either north or south the
tight moisture gradient will shift in its respective direction.
After the storms propagate further east, left over low level
moisture and northeasterly upslope flow will form low stratus and
the potential for fog over the western portions of the area during
the early morning hours. Expect low temperatures across the
region to span the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow: Substantially cooler air is anticipated tomorrow and
the low level moisture produced by the overnight MCS will
stabilize the atmosphere. Cloudy conditions and scattered showers
are still anticipated due to storm development to the west, but
convection will be limited over the region. CAPE values are
anticipated to be around 500-1000 J/kg, but there isn't much of a
lifting mechanism that will reach the more unstable air.

Friday: Friday morning, some dense fog is possible over the
majority of the region as the 900-800 hPa layer is fully
saturated. Fog should dissipate by the early afternoon hours.
Upper level ridge remains over the south-central US, which will
enable a shortwave trough to develop over the region, bringing the
potential for scattered thunderstorms during the evening hours.

PUB-Backup ~Skelly~

.LONG TERM (Saturday-Wednesday)...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The upper level ridge will remain relatively stationary over
Texas throughout the long term forecast. A low pressure center
located off of the coast of the Pacific Northwest will keep
ejecting shortwave troughs daily over the region. What this means
is a daily chance at showers and thunderstorms. The exact timing
will depend on when the shortwave arrives, but nevertheless,
scattered to numerous storms are anticipated. Saturday afternoon a
stronger shortwave is resolved to develop over the region, which
may spark a stronger complex of storms.

On Monday afternoon the previously mentioned Pacific based storm
is being resolved by both the ECMWF and GFS to propagate around
the upper level ridge. The low pressure center will form a cold
front that is forecast to travel over the region, creating another
day of severe weather. All in all, the extended forecast period
is active, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, some
severe.

Temperatures will fluctuate between the mid to upper 80s and the
low 90s during this forecast period. It'll be dependent on how
strong the shortwaves are that develop over the region. Overnight
lows will range from the low to upper 60s.

PUB-Backup ~Skelly~

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Thunderstorms will affect the GLD terminal late this evening into
tonight, primarily between 04-08Z. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out at the MCK terminal between 07-11Z, however, confidence is too
low to warrant explicit mention at this time. Gusty/erratic winds
can be expected in vicinity of any thunderstorms.

VFR conditions and easterly winds at 7-12 knots will otherwise
prevail at both terminals. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out at the GLD terminal near the end of the TAF period (00-06Z
Fri).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1034 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-090445-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1034 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019 /1134 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will progress eastward from Colorado into
western Kansas overnight. Although severe weather is not
anticipated, a few storms may be capable of producing dime to penny
size hail. Locally heavy rainfall may result in hazardous travel
conditions, particularly along Interstate 70 from Burlington east to
Oakley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain possible each
day through the upcoming weekend. Isolated severe storms will be
possible, however, predictability remains well below average.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1208 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
08/08/2019                   SHERMAN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS IN OF ALL ROADS FLOODED IN GOODLAND.
            AREA OF 8TH AND EUSTIS ST IS KNEE-DEEP.

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1221 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019

KSZ013-014-080715-
Thomas KS-Sherman KS-
1221 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS AND EASTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM MDT/215 AM CDT/...

At 1218 AM MDT/118 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms 4 miles west of Brewster, moving east at 20 mph.

Torrential rain and wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Colby, Oakley, Brewster, Levant, Rexford, Gem and Halford.

These storms will create extremely hazardous travel conditions along
Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 21 and 75, or between
Goodland and Oakley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall with these storms may lead to localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10167 3957 10168 3957 10073 3913 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 267DEG 17KT 3938 10145

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
127 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

KSZ002>004-016-080730-
Norton KS-Rawlins KS-Decatur KS-Graham KS-
127 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON...RAWLINS...DECATUR AND
NORTHERN GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 126 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of McDonald to 3 miles
northwest of Edmond. Movement was north at 5 to 15 mph.

Torrential rain, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and wind gusts
up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Norton, Oberlin, Atwood, Almena, Lenora, McDonald and Norcatur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall with these storms may lead to localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these
storms. Seek shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3943 10015 3957 10016 3957 10141 3999 10140
      4000 9962 3957 9963 3957 9960 3944 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 176DEG 12KT 3972 10128 3967 9986

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW COLBY             39.42N 101.06W
08/08/2019                   THOMAS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTED PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 25
            NORTH OF COLBY FLOODED.

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1247 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BREWSTER                39.36N 101.37W
08/08/2019                   THOMAS             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTED VARIOUS ROADS IN BREWSTER
            ARE FLOODED.

&&

JN

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