Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
322 PM MDT Tue May 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Tue May 28 2019

The primary forecast concern from this afternoon through the
overnight period is on the possibility of thunderstorms across the
area.

Another round of fog and low clouds overnight last night has set
up a differential heating boundary across the southern part of the
forecast area today. There is also a frontal boundary sweeping
across the area today from west to east as a surface low pressure
area moves out of southeast Colorado into western Kansas with the
upper low further back over northeast Colorado expected to move
over southwest Nebraska this evening.

The SPC slight risk area highlights the area of better heating to
the south combined with the cooler temperatures a loft to produce
an area of instability that is coincident with the area of surface
convergence. Expect an area of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across the forecast area with the possibility of
severe storms extending from east central Colorado along the I-70
corridor into western Kansas from mid-afternoon through the
evening hours. Also expect showers to linger into the late evening
and overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Tue May 28 2019

A closed low continues to lift northeastward through Thursday as a
ridge builds in behind it over the central U.S. High pressure fills
in across the western, central, and southeastern U.S. through
Tuesday. Another closed low sets up over southern California by
Friday night. This low weakens over the following days, shifting
south and sitting over the Baja of California through Tuesday.

At the surface, high pressure moves in over the Intermountain West
and Plains through Saturday. A weak low could develop by Sunday on
the Colorado/Kansas border along a stationary boundary. The boundary
is expected to move out of the Tri-State region by Tuesday. Rain and
thunderstorms are expected Friday, with chances returning Sunday
through Monday night associated with the boundary.

A warming trend is expected with the ridging that will be building
over the central U.S. High temperatures are expected to increase
from the upper 50s to 60s tomorrow into the 80s by Saturday. Low
temperatures follow the same warming trend increasing from the 40s
to 50s and lower 60s by Sunday night. The temperature forecast will
likely increase over the coming days as models seem to be trending
warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue May 28 2019

At GLD, LIFR conditions with low ceilings and fog will transition
through IFR to MVFR by 20Z and VFR by 22Z as showers and a few
thunderstorms move through the area. Conditions will return to
MVFR after 06Z as ceilings lower again following the passage of
showers. VFR conditions are expected after 15Z as lower ceilings
increase.

MCK will see IFR conditions through 00Z with isolated showers and
thunderstorms move through the area between 21Z-03Z. After 03Z
MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
333 PM MDT Tue May 28 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-292145-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
333 PM MDT Tue May 28 2019 /433 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the following
counties in Kansas until 8 p.m. MDT, 9 p.m. CDT: Greeley, Wichita,
Wallace, Logan, Gove, Thomas, Sheridan, and Graham.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
from this afternoon through tonight. A few of these storms could
become severe during the afternoon and evening hours mainly along
and north of the Interstate 70 corridor. Large hail around one inch
along with damaging winds will be the primary threats. Lower threats
include the possibility of localized heavy rain leading to flash
flooding and an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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