Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
503 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 431 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265 has been issued for the northern
counties through 05Z Tuesday. Conditions are favorable for a few
storms to become strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

The upper low center over the 4-corners region today moves over
the central Rockies by late Tuesday and slowly across Nebraska
Wednesday and Wednesday night. An initial weak short wave trough
rotates ahead of the low center across the forecast area this
evening with another couple of short wave troughs sweeping around
the base of the upper trough over the desert southwest and
eventually lifting out across the central high plains region
Tuesday evening and again Wednesday evening.

The associated surface low deepens over southeast Colorado this
afternoon and moves over central Kansas overnight before
redeveloping further west again on Tuesday over eastern Colorado
and eventually lifting out along the frontal boundary across the
eastern plains Tuesday night.

Between tonight and Tuesday night, it appears isolated to
scattered showers continue to develop and remain mainly to the
north of the forecast area. The chance of showers decreases as
cooler surface high pressure works slowly into the region staring
on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. High temperatures today
will be mainly in the lower 80s with highs on Wednesday ranging
from the upper 50s across eastern Colorado to the upper 60s over
central Kansas. Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

By Thursday, a closed low begins to weaken, dissipating over the
Midwest by Friday afternoon. A ridge builds over the central U.S.
Friday with a closed low sitting over the West Coast. Through
Monday, the ridge continues to build from the south with the closed
low weakening and sitting over southern California. The ECMWF has a
closed low moving east along the U.S./Canada border Sunday through
the end of the extended forecast period.

A weak surface low is expected to sit along the southern
Kansas/Colorado border starting Saturday through the extended
forecast period. An associated stationary front and dryline are
expected with the low. The Tri-State region is expected to sit to
the north of the low and front. This likely is why chances for rain
and thunderstorms persist through much of the extended forecast
period.

A warming trend continues through Saturday with highs starting in
the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. By Saturday, highs in the upper
70s to low 80s are expected through Tuesday. Lows will follow a
similar trend warming from the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday night
up to the mid-to upper 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 503 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

For KGLD...VFR skies thru the forecast period with any scattered
high clouds becoming more of a scattered/broken mid deck by 09z
Tuesday. Winds...SE 10-20kts thru 09z Tuesday...then WSW
10-20kts. LLWS 00z-09z 180@40kts.

For KMCK...mainly VFR skies during the forecast period. MVFR
ceilings around BKN020-030 from 04z-10z Tuesday. Chance for
rw/trw this evening...but timing low for now so have left out.
Winds ESE 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts thru 17z Tuesday...then
SSE 10-20kts. LLWS 04z-08z 160@30kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AW
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-282245-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
438 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019 /538 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Yuma, Dundy,
Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties until 11 P.M. MDT, 12 A.M. CDT. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible from this afternoon into the
overnight hours with a few storms becoming severe during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. The main threat will be large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             5 NE CLARKVILLE         40.43N 102.56W
05/27/2019  M1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TORNADO          12 ENE CLARKVILLE       40.42N 102.40W
05/27/2019                   YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NOT FULLY CONDENSED, BUT CLEAR CIRCULATION
            AT ALL LEVELS BENEATH BASE WITH MULTIPLE
            GROUND CIRCULATIONS. LASTED ONE MINUTE.

&&

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
634 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

COZ090-280130-
Yuma County CO-
634 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MDT...

At 634 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Yuma, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Pea to dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yuma, Eckley, Abarr and Heartstrong.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
northeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 4022 10247 4021 10234 4009 10227 3996 10233
      3985 10264 3981 10280 4010 10279 4018 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 233DEG 31KT 3995 10275

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
637 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

COZ090-280045-
Yuma County CO-
637 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

At 636 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Highland Center, or 19 miles north of Yuma, moving
north at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarkville.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
northeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 4044 10249 4031 10262 4027 10279 4035 10279
      4035 10278 4044 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 198DEG 14KT 4041 10265

Wekesser

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
705 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             5 SE YUMA               40.08N 102.66W
05/27/2019  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES EAST AND
            2 MILES SOUTH OF YUMA AT 7 PM MDT.

&&

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
710 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

COZ090-280145-
Yuma County CO-
710 PM MDT Mon May 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM MDT...

At 709 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Eckley, or 11 miles northeast of Yuma, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eckley.

This includes Highway 385 near mile marker 267.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
northeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 4010 10240 4008 10254 4015 10266 4034 10259
      4042 10254 4044 10244 4043 10231 4036 10227
      4027 10227
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 213DEG 40KT 4020 10252

Vincent