Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
451 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Starting off today, SPC upgraded the eastern half of our CWA to
an enhanced risk. As of 1:00 PM storms were starting to develop
along our CWA border with NWS Boulder. Looking at the short term
HRRR, we are seeing consistent runs of supercell development.
Surface dewpoints were in the mid to upper 60s, MLCAPE values up
to 3000 J/kg, deep layer shear around 40kts, with steep mid-level
lapse rates, all this in combination of the dryline's location and
daytime heating will fuel a comfortable severe weather threat.

Prime time of convective development will be from 3 PM MDT to 10
PM MDT. Initially we will see discrete supercells producing large
hail, up to 4 inches, with the threat shifting to winds later in
the evening as storms will grow into clusters and become linear in
nature.

Additionally, as a large portion of the Tri-State area has been
met with several days of rainfall, the bar for potential flash
flooding has been set higher. Went and issued a Flash Flood Watch,
for the entire Tri-State area, as these storms are expecting to
produce a good amount of rain over areas already saturated.
Expecting the counties along the Colorado / Kansas border to be at
the highest risk. Expecting the storms to merge this evening and
move southward dumping 1 to 3 inches on those counties underneath.
Flash Flood Watch is expected to last through midnight MDT.

Highs today will be in the mid 80s, with overnight lows near 60.
There may be some areas of patchy fog, but confidence is low at
this time.

Tomorrow, we will see once again warm surface temperatures, in
the mid to upper 80s, moderate deep-layer shear and instability,
steep lapse rates, prevailing again over our CWA. Our strongest
threats will once again be along the Colorado / Kansas border.
Expecting another round of discrete supercells producing larger
hail and potential tors. Followed again by transitioning to a wind
threat and prevailing through the overnight hours as additional
forcing from a shortwave will aid in sustaining convective
development. Flash flooding will again be a concern for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Thursday, we may see a few severe storms. SPC currently has us
under a marginal risk, but that may change greatly depending on
how convection plays out Wednesday along the Kansas / Nebraska
border. Regardless, expecting convective development with peak
afternoon heating and lasting through the evening hours. Guidance
is still quite a bit in disagreement as to what will happen, so
confidence remains low at this time as to extent of impacts to the
Tri-State area.

Friday onward, wide disagreement with model guidance. Went with
the National Blend at this time. Expecting near normal
temperatures with daily thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday
afternoon. Sunday through Tuesday, very slight chances for
convection and near normal highs and lows through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 445 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

For KGLD and KMCK vfr conditions expected through the period. KGLD
will see gusty northeast winds for a few hours before becoming
variable from southeast to southwest up to 12kts through the rest
of the period. Could see some fog but confidence not high enough
to include in forecast.

For KMCK generally light and variable winds currently expected
through late morning before establishing a northeast direction
near 10kts in the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1219 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141830-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1219 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 /119 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NWS Goodland has issued a Tornado Watch until 7 PM MDT / 8 PM CDT
for the entire NWS Goodland area.

Additionally, NWS Goodland has issued a Flood Watch until 12 AM MDT /
1 AM MDT.

There are enhanced/slight risks for severe thunderstorms across much
of the Tri-State area this afternoon and evening. Large hail up to
baseball size, winds in excess of 60 mph and localized heavy
rainfall producing sharply reduced visibilities and the potential
for flash flooding will be the primary threats Tuesday from
approximately 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) through 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out but is not a primary threat with
storms today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across almost the
entire Tri-State area Wednesday during the late-afternoon through
the overnight hours. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging
winds, and localized heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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