Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

An active afternoon and evening is expected across the Tri State
area. A strong shortwave trough, especially for this time of year,
will move out of the central Rockies and across the area tonight.
The upper ridge has receded just enough south to allow this wave
to eject over the area. At the surface, a stalled boundary is
evident on radar and satellite imagery, snaking across southern
Yuma County, Colorado, then east and southeast across northwest
Kansas. There are two areas of concern for thunderstorms. First,
discrete cells may develop near and south of the boundary
described above, as indicated by latest runs of the HRRR. These
cells will be in an environment characterized by 40-60 kts of
deep layer shear and surface based instability of 4000-5000 j/kg.
Those parameters alone are more than sufficient to support
supercells, and with a boundary in the mix may see a few tornadoes
from this discrete activity. Second, and primary, concern will be
the complex of thunderstorms moving out of northeast Colorado
early this evening and across areas near the Kansas/Nebraska
border. Simulated reflectivity suggests bowing structures and
wind gusts may approach 80 mph or greater. This activity may also
produce heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. Activity should finally move out to the east
shortly after 06z.

Tuesday will see a break from the thunderstorms. Models show a
zonal flow aloft with only a very weak possible embedded wave.
There is weak to moderate instability forecast in the eastern six
counties, McCook to Gove, so cannot rule out an isolated storm
popping up with surface heating, but chances are low. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lows Tuesday night in
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Synopsis... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at the
beginning of the forecast period from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon. An isolated severe thunderstorm will be
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, possibly lasting into the
overnight hours. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions are expected
Thursday through Sunday. High temperatures will increase from the
mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon to the low to mid 90s Thursday
afternoon and lasting through the weekend. Low temperatures will
jump up as well from the upper 50s to the 60s later this coming
week.

Discussion... An upper-level longwave trough will progress eastward
across the Northern Plains Tuesday through Wednesday which could
provide some increased chances for showers and thunderstorms to
develop. There will also be ample deep-layer wind shear on order of
30 to 40 kts as well as CAPE on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg while
that trough will be providing upper-level support for ascent. Given
this, strong to severe thunderstorms are not out of the picture
Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday evening. Some lingering
showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the evening hours
Wednesday as the upper-level trough slowly exits stage right, but
severe weather is not currently expected Wednesday.

By Thursday, the upper-level ridge present over the southern United
States will strengthen and push the upper-level jet farther north so
that there is decreased upper-level support for precipitation
later next week. No precipitation is expected Thursday morning
through Sunday afternoon. A strengthening upper-level trough over
the western United States could progress eastward and provide some
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
and evening, but forecaster confidence remains low with this
system so far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

An area of strong to severe thunderstorms will be moving across
the central high plains region this evening. MCK and GLD will be
VFR through the majority of the 00Z TAF period with a potential
for conditions to drop to IFR if stronger storms with heavy
rainfall moves directly over either of those terminals between
01Z-07Z. Very gusty winds are also possible with stronger storms.
After 07Z, expect storms to be mainly out of the area with VFR
conditions continuing.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ090-091.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-122015-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
208 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 /308 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until sunrise Monday morning for
areas along and north of Interstate 70.

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts up to 80 mph and
hail up to golf ball size will be possible late this afternoon and
evening, primarily north of Interstate 70 between 5 pm and 11 pm MDT.
In addition, a few thunderstorms may develop ahead of the main
complex between mid afternoon and early evening. These storms may
produce a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire
area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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