Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Goodland, KS

315 
WGUS73 KGLD 120540
FFSGLD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1140 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

COC063-125-KSC023-153-181-199-NEC057-087-120549-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190812T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yuma CO-Kit Carson CO-Wallace KS-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins KS-Sherman KS-
Hitchcock NE-Dundy NE-
1140 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...EASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
CHEYENNE...RAWLINS AND SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN HITCHCOCK AND SOUTHERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 PM MDT/1245 AM CDT/...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4000 10075 3957 10075 3957 10139 3914 10142
      3905 10243 4002 10203

$$

Vincent

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

An active afternoon and evening is expected across the Tri State
area. A strong shortwave trough, especially for this time of year,
will move out of the central Rockies and across the area tonight.
The upper ridge has receded just enough south to allow this wave
to eject over the area. At the surface, a stalled boundary is
evident on radar and satellite imagery, snaking across southern
Yuma County, Colorado, then east and southeast across northwest
Kansas. There are two areas of concern for thunderstorms. First,
discrete cells may develop near and south of the boundary
described above, as indicated by latest runs of the HRRR. These
cells will be in an environment characterized by 40-60 kts of
deep layer shear and surface based instability of 4000-5000 j/kg.
Those parameters alone are more than sufficient to support
supercells, and with a boundary in the mix may see a few tornadoes
from this discrete activity. Second, and primary, concern will be
the complex of thunderstorms moving out of northeast Colorado
early this evening and across areas near the Kansas/Nebraska
border. Simulated reflectivity suggests bowing structures and
wind gusts may approach 80 mph or greater. This activity may also
produce heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible. Activity should finally move out to the east
shortly after 06z.

Tuesday will see a break from the thunderstorms. Models show a
zonal flow aloft with only a very weak possible embedded wave.
There is weak to moderate instability forecast in the eastern six
counties, McCook to Gove, so cannot rule out an isolated storm
popping up with surface heating, but chances are low. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lows Tuesday night in
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Synopsis... Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at the
beginning of the forecast period from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon. An isolated severe thunderstorm will be
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, possibly lasting into the
overnight hours. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions are expected
Thursday through Sunday. High temperatures will increase from the
mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon to the low to mid 90s Thursday
afternoon and lasting through the weekend. Low temperatures will
jump up as well from the upper 50s to the 60s later this coming
week.

Discussion... An upper-level longwave trough will progress eastward
across the Northern Plains Tuesday through Wednesday which could
provide some increased chances for showers and thunderstorms to
develop. There will also be ample deep-layer wind shear on order of
30 to 40 kts as well as CAPE on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg while
that trough will be providing upper-level support for ascent. Given
this, strong to severe thunderstorms are not out of the picture
Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday evening. Some lingering
showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the evening hours
Wednesday as the upper-level trough slowly exits stage right, but
severe weather is not currently expected Wednesday.

By Thursday, the upper-level ridge present over the southern United
States will strengthen and push the upper-level jet farther north so
that there is decreased upper-level support for precipitation
later next week. No precipitation is expected Thursday morning
through Sunday afternoon. A strengthening upper-level trough over
the western United States could progress eastward and provide some
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
and evening, but forecaster confidence remains low with this
system so far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

An area of strong to severe thunderstorms will be moving across
the central high plains region this evening. MCK and GLD will be
VFR through the majority of the 00Z TAF period with a potential
for conditions to drop to IFR if stronger storms with heavy
rainfall moves directly over either of those terminals between
01Z-07Z. Very gusty winds are also possible with stronger storms.
After 07Z, expect storms to be mainly out of the area with VFR
conditions continuing.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ090-091.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-122015-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
208 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 /308 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until sunrise Monday morning for
areas along and north of Interstate 70.

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts up to 80 mph and
hail up to golf ball size will be possible late this afternoon and
evening, primarily north of Interstate 70 between 5 pm and 11 pm MDT.
In addition, a few thunderstorms may develop ahead of the main
complex between mid afternoon and early evening. These storms may
produce a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire
area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.53W
08/11/2019  E2.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. HAIL
            STILL ONGOING AS OF 7 PM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
720 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S SAINT FRANCIS       39.76N 101.80W
08/11/2019  M60 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   AWOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
724 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.53W
08/11/2019  E2.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
725 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.54W
08/11/2019  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT VIA FACEBOOK OF WALNUT TO
            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
736 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E SAINT FRANCIS       39.77N 101.79W
08/11/2019  M1.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA FACEBOOK OF AN INCH AND A HALF OF
            RAIN IN THE PAST 22 MINUTES AND STILL
            POURING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
738 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E SAINT FRANCIS       39.77N 101.79W
08/11/2019                   CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA FACEBOOK. INTERSECTION OF ROAD O
            AND ROAD 15 COVERED. DITCHES ARE
            OVERFLOWING. STILL RAINING.

&&