Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Today we will see another hot day, with temperatures above normal.
Tomorrow this is expected to drop a couple of degrees, but daily
highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Looking aloft the ridge that prevailed over the area this past
weekend, has further relaxed and weakened. Although we do still have
decent moisture, we are lacking forcing and with deep-layer shear
progressively lower the further south you go in our area. This will
inhibit our ability to generate convection.

So, with that stated, chances of showers and storms this afternoon
have decreased, but still cannot rule out an isolated severe storm
or two this evening. Expected threats include hail and strong winds.
SPC has taken our CWA from a slight risk down to marginal across the
area. Expecting weak multicellular clusters of storms, similar to
what we have seen the past couple of evenings.

Tonight, not expecting any weather, but overnight lows will drop
into the 60s. Similar story for tomorrow, with an even lower chance
for storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

At the start of the forecast period, a broad upper ridge will extend across
the Central High Plains with southwest flow aloft over the Tri-
State area. An upper trough centered over southern Washington and
northern Oregon will give the region a chance for daily showers
and thunderstorms as several disturbances are pushed into the
region.

Tuesday evening, a shortwave trough will progress east, bringing a chance for a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms to the region. 700-500mb
lapse rates are marginal as are CAPE values. At this point in
time, am not anticipating severe weather across the forecast area.
Temperatures will range in the mid-80s to mid-90s for highs and
the upper 50s in northeastern Colorado to the low 70s in Kansas
for lows.

A mid-level shortwave will enter the region, bringing a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Storms are expected
to kick off along a boundary around the Kansas-Colorado border.
With MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg, SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg,
700-500mb lapse rates potentially ranging from 7-8 C/km, and the
boundary, cannot entirely rule out a few strong to severe storms.

Independence Day, the upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will slowly progress
eastward, kicking another shortwave trough into the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Temperatures will
range from the upper 80s to mid-90s for highs and upper 50s in
northeastern Colorado to the lower 70s in Kansas.

The remainder of the forecast, the upper trough will deamplify as
it moves east, over the Dakotas. Several shortwaves will move
through the area during this time. A few showers and thunderstorms
cannot be entirely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected. Removed chances of thunderstorms, because confidence is
too low at this time to keep in a prevailing group.

Winds are expected to remain at 5-10 kts with variable direction
through the afternoon today and tomorrow. Relaxing in the evening
hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...EV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1028 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021630-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1028 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 /1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail
and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible this afternoon
and evening, primarily in eastern Colorado and areas west of Highway
83 in Kansas and Nebraska. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled
out in association with any slow moving thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thunderstorm chances remain during the late afternoon and evening
hours every day through Monday. Severe storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not required, but reports are greatly appreciated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 PM MDT MON JUL 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             1 N ATWOOD              39.83N 101.04W
07/01/2019  E0.88 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
530 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

KSZ001-002-012245-
Rawlins KS-Cheyenne KS-
530 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHEYENNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN RAWLINS COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of McDonald, or 18 miles southwest of Atwood, moving
north at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McDonald and Beardsley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10126 3963 10148 3986 10145 3977 10106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 198DEG 5KT 3968 10135

Husted

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
431 PM MDT MON JUL 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             13 N EDSON              39.51N 101.57W
07/01/2019  E0.70 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALSO REPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT MON JUL 1 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             13 N EDSON              39.51N 101.57W
07/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
443 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

COZ091-KSZ013-012315-
Kit Carson County CO-Sherman KS-
443 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 443 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Burlington, moving north at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington and Kanorado.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 0 and 6.
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 435 and 450.
 Highway 385 between mile markers 181 and 190.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 10192 3912 10222 3932 10236 3938 10192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 161DEG 6KT 3922 10214

Husted

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