Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Today we will see another hot day, with temperatures above normal.
Tomorrow this is expected to drop a couple of degrees, but daily
highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Looking aloft the ridge that prevailed over the area this past
weekend, has further relaxed and weakened. Although we do still have
decent moisture, we are lacking forcing and with deep-layer shear
progressively lower the further south you go in our area. This will
inhibit our ability to generate convection.

So, with that stated, chances of showers and storms this afternoon
have decreased, but still cannot rule out an isolated severe storm
or two this evening. Expected threats include hail and strong winds.
SPC has taken our CWA from a slight risk down to marginal across the
area. Expecting weak multicellular clusters of storms, similar to
what we have seen the past couple of evenings.

Tonight, not expecting any weather, but overnight lows will drop
into the 60s. Similar story for tomorrow, with an even lower chance
for storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

At the start of the forecast period, a broad upper ridge will extend across
the Central High Plains with southwest flow aloft over the Tri-
State area. An upper trough centered over southern Washington and
northern Oregon will give the region a chance for daily showers
and thunderstorms as several disturbances are pushed into the
region.

Tuesday evening, a shortwave trough will progress east, bringing a chance for a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms to the region. 700-500mb
lapse rates are marginal as are CAPE values. At this point in
time, am not anticipating severe weather across the forecast area.
Temperatures will range in the mid-80s to mid-90s for highs and
the upper 50s in northeastern Colorado to the low 70s in Kansas
for lows.

A mid-level shortwave will enter the region, bringing a chance of a few showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Storms are expected
to kick off along a boundary around the Kansas-Colorado border.
With MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg, SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg,
700-500mb lapse rates potentially ranging from 7-8 C/km, and the
boundary, cannot entirely rule out a few strong to severe storms.

Independence Day, the upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will slowly progress
eastward, kicking another shortwave trough into the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Temperatures will
range from the upper 80s to mid-90s for highs and upper 50s in
northeastern Colorado to the lower 70s in Kansas.

The remainder of the forecast, the upper trough will deamplify as
it moves east, over the Dakotas. Several shortwaves will move
through the area during this time. A few showers and thunderstorms
cannot be entirely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected. Removed chances of thunderstorms, because confidence is
too low at this time to keep in a prevailing group.

Winds are expected to remain at 5-10 kts with variable direction
through the afternoon today and tomorrow. Relaxing in the evening
hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...EV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1028 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021630-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1028 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019 /1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter size hail
and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible this afternoon
and evening, primarily in eastern Colorado and areas west of Highway
83 in Kansas and Nebraska. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled
out in association with any slow moving thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thunderstorm chances remain during the late afternoon and evening
hours every day through Monday. Severe storms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation not required, but reports are greatly appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
258 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

COZ092-KSZ027-012115-
Cheyenne County CO-Wallace KS-
258 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND WESTERN WALLACE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles northwest of Sharon Springs to 4 miles
southwest of Weskan. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Weskan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10224 3912 10196 3914 10191 3913 10187
      3913 10168 3872 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 234DEG 9KT 3908 10185 3881 10202

Husted

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

COZ092-KSZ013-027-012200-
Cheyenne County CO-Wallace KS-Sherman KS-
323 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 400 PM
MDT...

At 323 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles northwest of Sharon Springs to 4 miles
southwest of Weskan. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Weskan and Arapahoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 10232 3905 10211 3905 10205 3915 10205
      3921 10201 3922 10167 3887 10187 3869 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 204DEG 11KT 3910 10188 3883 10204

Husted

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
441 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

KSZ002-012215-
Rawlins KS-
441 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Atwood, moving north at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Atwood, Ludell, Blakeman and Beardsley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 10107 3971 10126 3992 10120 3985 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 196DEG 14KT 3978 10110

Husted

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
356 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

KSZ001-013-012230-
Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
356 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 430 PM
MDT/530 PM CDT/...

At 356 PM MDT/456 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 11 miles north of Goodland, moving north at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Cheyenne and northeastern Sherman Counties in northwestern Kansas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 10145 3941 10154 3945 10172 3964 10176
      3965 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 185DEG 8KT 3951 10165

Husted

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
401 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

KSZ013-012230-
Sherman KS-
401 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHERMAN COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

At 401 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goodland, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goodland.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 14 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 10164 3930 10182 3947 10173 3941 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 209DEG 17KT 3933 10167

Husted

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

NEZ081-012230-
Red Willow NE-
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RED WILLOW COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 503 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Bartley to 3 miles
southwest of Indianola. Movement was north at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Indianola and Bartley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 10022 4009 10062 4035 10052 4035 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 192DEG 20KT 4034 10036 4021 10048

Husted