Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
400 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

What appears to a number of different rounds of severe
thunderstorms has begun this afternoon. So time is short. Front
has moved into the northwestern portion of the forecast area.
Models have slowed down the progression of the cold front across
the area. This is due to a wave/surface low over southeast
Colorado. The front is expected to stall or move rather slowly
until later on this evening.

Discrete, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near or
slightly to the east of the front initially. Then additional
development is expected along and just behind the front by later
this afternoon. By mid to late evening all this activity is going
to merge together into a large cluster and move across the area
through the overnight hours. It is also possible that elevated
thunderstorms develop behind the front later in the night.

The high resolution/Cams are different but it is their attempt to
depict the above scenarios. So large hail and maybe a tornado or
two can be expected until the storms merge. Then the threat will
shift to more of a wind threat that could last through the night.
Through the overnight hours, locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be possible as well.

There will be lingering precipitation during the day tomorrow but
hard to tell how much or how long it will be. Models consistent in
cooling off high temperatures into the 60s for Sunday. Clouds
clear out later tomorrow into the evening with the winds becoming
light. Did not have time to do a climate section. However the
current forecast lows for Sunday night from the upper 30s into
the lower 40s means low temperature records will be broken.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

Not much time to write due to severe weather beginning.

Earlier system that was affecting the area Tuesday is not as
strong, and the pops have gone down.

Mean trough remains out west. The trough, rather complex with
numerous smaller waves to move through the area, will affect the
area from Thursday night into Saturday. So unsettled weather is
expected during that time.

Warmer temperatures, near to slightly below normal, are expected
from Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

For KGLD and KMCK, thunderstorms will be possible at both
terminals through about 06z or 07z as a cold front moves toward
the area. Winds begin from the east or southeast 10-15kts backing
to the north and gusting around 30kts by 06z. Sub vfr cigs
expected from 06z-12z then vfr conditions return with winds slowly
decreasing.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
252 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2019 /352 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through the
overnight hours. Through the early evening hours, the main threats
will be large hail and isolated tornados. Damaging winds will also be
possible and these winds could cause blowing dust which could
significantly reduce the visibility.

After early evening, these storms will merge, and form a large
cluster that will move across the area through the overnight hours.
After this happens, damaging winds will become the main threat and
will be rather widespread. As before these winds could cause blowing
dust. Through the overnight hours, locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be possible with any of these storms.

Even though the fire danger is not high, any fire that gets started
this afternoon and evening could become significant due to quickly
changing and increasing winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Flooding concerns will have to be monitored on Sunday as locally
heavy rainfall from the overnight period Saturday could have
lingering issues for portions of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected through the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
607 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             3 N GOODLAND            39.40N 101.71W
06/08/2019  M1.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL SIZE OF 1.61
            INCHES (41 MM).

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 E SAINT FRANCIS       39.77N 101.78W
06/08/2019  E1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT VIA FACEBOOK OF PEA TO
            QUARTER SIZE HAIL. HAIL LASTED ABOUT TEN
            MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
716 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             2 S EDSON               39.30N 101.54W
06/08/2019  E2.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THIS IS ON ROAD 29 SOUTH OF EDSON.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
735 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW EDSON             39.32N 101.58W
06/08/2019  M60 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   MESONET

            MESONET REPORT OF 60 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
752 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     HAIL             BREWSTER                39.36N 101.37W
06/08/2019  E2.00 INCH       THOMAS             KS   STORM CHASER

            REPORT FROM NEAR THE BREWSTER EXIT ON I70.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
754 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             BREWSTER                39.36N 101.37W
06/08/2019  E2.00 INCH       THOMAS             KS   STORM CHASER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM BREWSTER.
            REPORT FROM NEAR THE BREWSTER EXIT ON I70.
            CORRECTED THE PREVIOUS REPORT TO CORRECT THE
            TIME OF THE REPORT.

&&

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