High Wind Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

407 
WWUS73 KGLD 121827
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1227 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...Strong damaging winds possible Wednesday afternoon and night...

.Strong northerly winds on the backside of an exiting winter
storm will bring very windy conditions to much of the Tri State
region. Two instances of high winds are expected. The first will
be immediately following the cold front passage Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A second round of high winds are expected
Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours.

COZ092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-130600-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.190313T1800Z-190314T2100Z/
Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, 
Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield,
Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
1227 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019 /127 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

* Peak Winds...Northerly winds could gust as high as 60 to 80 
  mph Wednesday afternoon and evening. Northerly winds gusting 
  55 to 70 mph are also forecast Thursday morning into the 
  afternoon.

* Timing/Duration...For high winds, from Wednesday afternoon 
  through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow 
  could reduce visibility. Strong winds could cause tree and 
  power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

421 
WWUS73 KGLD 122016
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
216 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...Strong damaging winds possible Wednesday afternoon and night...

.Strong northerly winds on the backside of an exiting winter
storm will bring very windy conditions to much of the Tri State
region. Two instances of high winds are expected. The first will
be immediately following the cold front passage Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A second round of high winds are expected
Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours.

COZ092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-130600-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.190313T1800Z-190314T2100Z/
Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, 
Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield,
Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
216 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019 /316 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

* Peak Winds...Northerly winds could gust as high as 60 to 80 
  mph Wednesday afternoon and evening. Northerly winds gusting 
  55 to 70 mph are also forecast Thursday morning into the 
  afternoon.

* Timing/Duration...For high winds, from Wednesday afternoon 
  through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow 
  could reduce visibility. Strong winds could cause tree and 
  power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

403 
WWUS73 KGLD 130529
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1129 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...Strong damaging winds possible Wednesday afternoon and night...

.Strong northerly winds on the backside of an exiting winter
storm will bring very windy conditions to much of the Tri State
region. Two instances of high winds are expected. The first will
be immediately following the cold front passage Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A second round of high winds are expected
Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours.

COZ092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131400-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.190313T1800Z-190314T2100Z/
Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, 
Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield,
Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
1129 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019 /1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

* Peak Winds...Northerly winds could gust as high as 60 to 80 
  mph Wednesday afternoon and evening. Northerly winds gusting 
  55 to 70 mph are also forecast Thursday morning into the 
  afternoon.

* Timing/Duration...For high winds, from Wednesday afternoon 
  through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow 
  could reduce visibility. Strong winds could cause tree and 
  power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

533 
WWUS73 KGLD 131116
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019

...Strong damaging winds possible this afternoon into Thursday
afternoon...

.Strong northerly winds on the backside of an exiting winter
storm will bring very strong winds to the entire Tri State 
region. Two instances of high winds are expected. The first will 
be immediately following the passage of a cold front this
afternoon and evening. A second round of high winds are expected 
Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours.

COZ092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131930-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.190313T1800Z-190314T2100Z/
Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, 
Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield,
Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
516 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019 /616 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/
TODAY TO 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THURSDAY...

* Peak Winds...This afternoon into tonight, the north winds are
  expected to gust into the 75 to 85 mph range for Yuma, Kit
  Carson,and Cheyenne counties in eastern Colorado. Through
  tonight for northwest Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska,
  gusts of 60 to around 70 mph are expected. Northerly winds 
  gusting 60 to 70 mph are also forecast Thursday morning into the
  afternoon.

* Timing/Duration...For high winds, from Wednesday afternoon 
  through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult if not very
  dangerous. Blowing snow could reduce visibility. Strong winds 
  could cause tree and power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

508 
WWUS73 KGLD 131347
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
747 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019

...Strong damaging winds possible this morning into Thursday 
afternoon...

.Strong northerly winds on the backside of an exiting winter
storm will bring very strong winds to the entire Tri State
region. Two instances of high winds are expected. The first will
be immediately following the passage of a cold front this
afternoon and evening. A second round of high winds are expected
Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours.

COZ092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-132300-
/O.EXT.KGLD.HW.W.0001.190313T1347Z-190314T2100Z/
Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, 
Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield,
Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
747 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019 /847 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/
THURSDAY...

* Peak Winds...Some areas this morning will see southerly winds 55
  to 65 mph. This afternoon into tonight, the north winds are 
  expected to gust into the 75 to 85 mph range for Yuma, Kit 
  Carson,and Cheyenne counties in eastern Colorado. Through 
  tonight for northwest Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska, 
  gusts of 60 to around 70 mph are expected. Northerly winds 
  gusting 60 to 70 mph are also forecast Thursday morning into the
  afternoon.

* Timing/Duration...For high winds, from Wednesday morning 
  through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult if not very 
  dangerous. Blowing snow could reduce visibility. Strong winds 
  could cause tree and power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

003 
WWUS73 KGLD 132003
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019

...Strong damaging winds possible this morning into Thursday
afternoon...

.Strong northerly winds on the backside of an exiting winter
storm will bring very strong winds to the entire Tri State
region. Two instances of high winds are expected. The first will
be immediately following the passage of a cold front this
afternoon and evening. A second round of high winds are expected
Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours.

COZ092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-140600-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190314T2100Z/
Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, 
Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield,
Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
203 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019 /303 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/
THURSDAY...

* Peak Winds...This afternoon into tonight, the north winds are 
  expected to gust into the 75 to 85 mph range for Yuma, Kit 
  Carson,and Cheyenne counties in eastern Colorado. Through 
  tonight for northwest Kansas and extreme southwest Nebraska, 
  gusts of 60 to around 70 mph are expected. Northerly winds 
  gusting 60 to 70 mph are also forecast Thursday morning into the
  afternoon.

* Timing/Duration...For high winds, from Wednesday morning 
  through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult if not very 
  dangerous. Blowing snow could reduce visibility. Strong winds 
  could cause tree and power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

436 
WWUS73 KGLD 140520
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019

COZ092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141400-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190314T2100Z/
Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, 
Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield,
Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
1120 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2019 /1220 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/
THURSDAY...

* Peak Winds...northerly winds will continue to gust to 60 to 70
  mph through the overnight period, with only a gradual reduction
  in wind speeds through Thursday afternoon.

* Timing/Duration...tonight through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult if not very 
  dangerous. Blowing snow could reduce visibility. Strong winds 
  could cause tree and power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

471 
WWUS73 KGLD 140920
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
320 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2019

COZ090-091-141800-
/O.EXA.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190314T2100Z/
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, and Burlington
320 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect until 3 PM MDT this afternoon.

* Peak Winds...North to northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts
  of 60 to around 70 mph. The winds will begin to gradually 
  decrease from late in the morning into the afternoon. 

* Timing/Duration...Through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult if not very 
  dangerous. Blowing snow could reduce visibility. Strong winds 
  could cause tree and power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

COZ092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141800-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190314T2100Z/
Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-
Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, 
Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, 
Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield,
Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
320 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2019 /420 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON...

* Peak Winds...North to northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts
  of 60 to around 70 mph. The winds will begin to gradually 
  decrease from late in the morning into the afternoon.

* Timing/Duration...Through Thursday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Travel could be very difficult if not very 
  dangerous. Blowing snow could reduce visibility. Strong winds 
  could cause tree and power pole damage. Power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means strong winds are either occurring or
imminent which could lead to property damage...reduced visibility
in blowing dust...and loss of vehicle control. A High Wind
Warning is issued for sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or
gusts of 58 mph or more.

&&

$$

277 
WWUS73 KGLD 142055
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2019


COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-142200-
/O.EXP.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190314T2100Z/
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, Burlington, Arapahoe, 
Cheyenne Wells, St. Francis, Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, 
Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, Hill City, Sharon Springs, Oakley, 
Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield, Tribune, Leoti, Benkelman, 
Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, Palisade, and McCook
255 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2019 /355 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

Northwest winds will continue to gust in the 40 to 55 mph range for
another few hours before steadily subsiding through this evening. The
strongest winds will remain east of the Colorado Kansas border.
With widespread wind gusts of 58 mph or higher no longer being
expected the High Wind Warning will be allowed to expire on time. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1004 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Update issued to cancel Dense Fog Advisory and expand the Flood
Watch. Based on current obs in the east...winds are mixing out
the affected areas prompting cancellation. Also based on surface
conditions in NE Colorado have included in the going Flood Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

As of 400 am CDT, 300 am MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
overcast due to expansive fields of cirrus and stratus. Temperatures
are in the mid 30s to low 40s. Winds are generally south at 5 to 15
mph. Latest WSR-88D trends indicate a few areas of light showers.
The most prevalent one is located over southeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas, moving northeast. At the surface, a lee trough
is intensifying along the Colorado Front Range. Aloft, an expansive
low pressure system is spiraling over the Baja peninsula, slowly
making its way to the east-northeast. A few minor shortwave troughs
are noted in the southwest flow in advance of this system.

Some differences in previous forecast runs have lead to a few
important adjustments to thinking regarding the incoming major storm
system. The focus of this discussion will explain the current
thinking, differences, and points of concern.

For today, fog may be a problem this morning and am monitoring for
potential issuance of a dense fog advisory. While this would
complicate headlines, it would be a pressing short-term need.
Forecast guidance has also become more pessimistic on showers this
morning across primarily northwest Kansas. Therefore, as with
previous forecasts, have lowered the precipitation chances for this
morning into the early afternoon. Very warm temperatures are
expected compared to recent cold weather. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to exceed 60 degrees across the entire
area, with perhaps some locations nearing 70 close to the junction
of Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. South winds will pick up today
and become gusty by around noon generally along and south of the
Kansas/Nebraska border.

For tonight, the complicated weather time period begins. During the
overnight hours, am anticipating widespread precipitation to break
out across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas, expanding NNE
throughout the night. There are now a few concerns with the rainfall
forecast. First, many pieces of forecast guidance have lessened the
anticipated rainfall amounts as a result of quicker movement of the
precipitation. Second, am growing more confident that we will
observe thunderstorms embedded within this area of precipitation.
This would heighten precipitation amounts due to the convective
nature. MUCape of 500-1000 j/kg increases confidence in thunderstorm
potential. Record-breaking precipitable water is still forecast so
there will be more-than-ample moisture for the atmosphere to work
with. Therefore, while forecast rainfall amounts have trended down
with this forecast run, still anticipate the potential for 1.5-2.0"
amounts, with some locations potentially receiving more rain depending
on where thunderstorms move. Therefore, will leave the flood watch
unaltered. Also, yesterday morning's frost depth at Goodland was 12
inches. Therefore, even with today's very warm weather, am not
anticipating soils to thaw completely. Therefore, the flooding
thinking/threat remains the same...there will be runoff due to
frozen and saturate soils.

On Wednesday, showers/thunderstorms will continue moving to the NNE.
However, one interesting trend has been a slight clearing ahead of
the rapidly developing surface low. A swath of marginal instability
redevelops in the wake of the exiting precipitation area. There is
an opportunity for that instability to be collocated with favorable
wind shear. Will need to watch this closely as there could be an
outside (minority) chance for some severe convection. For now, won't
highlight it in the HWO but may include a mention in the Situation
Report for weather partners.

Once some the heavier precipitation along with potential strong
storms clears the area to the northeast, attention then turns to the
incoming cold front. A surface low pressure is expected to bomb over
eastern Colorado as it heads toward central Kansas, resulting in
significant pressure gradients and intense wind fields. A cold front
will rapidly advance SSE across the forecast area, beginning first
in northeast Colorado, spreading into southwest Kansas quicker. The
front will slowly advance east throughout the night but the main
initial push will be SSE across eastern Colorado into western
Kansas. Behind this front, mixing profiles and intense wind fields
just off the surface indicate the potential for a significant wind
event, similar to the April 17, 2018 high wind event. Will keep the
wording of 60 to 80 mph gusts as this still looks to be a decent
bet. While my career is still young, I can't remember a time a wind
field has been this impressive. According to CIPS analogs, one of
the closest analogs occurred in April 2001 and even that wind field
wasn't as impressive. As a result of the potential intensity of the
winds, decided to expand the high wind watch to cover all of the
forecast area. We may be in uncharted territory. Also, another round
of high winds can be expected Thursday morning/afternoon after a
brief lull...as in gusts of only 45 to 55 mph...in the early morning
hours Thursday. Favorable mixing/clearing will exist and sounding
profiles indicate that the region will be able to tap into high
winds aloft, bringing down gusts of 55-65 mph. One great thing about
this wind event, if there is such a thing, is that the soils will be
saturated so am not anticipating any dust threat. Would be shocked
if dust developed with the rain and snow forecast.

Finally, concerning the winter storm/blizzard threat...forecast
guidances continues to slowly shift the axis of heaviest snow
slightly to the northeast. Snow forecast for this run chopped into
projected totals across the area. A large portion of the current
winter storm watch, mainly locations east of a Wray, CO to Stratton,
CO line is only projected to receive trace amounts to 2 inches. This
snow forecast, which is in agreement with neighboring offices and
WPC, kept confidence too low to upgrade to a blizzard warning for
the winter storm watch area. If a blizzard warning was needed with
this forecast run, it would have only been issued for Yuma County
Colorado where the heaviest snow and high winds would likely combine
for blizzard conditions. While this is not to say we are out of the
woods for blizzard conditions across the rest of the winter storm
watch, the confidence just wasn't there to adjust the product any.
This is also part of the reason for expanding the high wind watch as
confidence is there for high winds, just not heavy/blowing snow.
Will continue to monitor how trends play out for this potential
blizzard.

With all this said, this significant storm system will bring a
variety of high-impact threats that will keep us all on our toes.
Please know that forecast adjustments will be required so stay tuned
to any forecast updates as the impacts may have changed for your
location.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Northwest flow develops aloft Thursday night as the system impacting
the region earlier in the week pushes east towards the Great Lakes.
Some breezy northwest winds carry into the early evening before
steadily declining. Patchy blowing snow could linger during this
time along and west of the Colorado border until winds drop off.

Dry conditions, sunny skies, and quiet weather are forecast Friday
through Monday, with west to northwest flow aloft as ridging builds
over the west coast. A warming trend is expected, with highs in the
upper 30s to mid 40s on Friday rising into the upper 40s to upper
50s in time for Monday. Low temperatures range in the teens and 20s
for the majority of the region, steadily warming as well. A few
eastern locations could see lows in the low 30s Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 546 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Widespread poor aviation conditions expected into mid-morning
today and resuming once again this evening after 00z. Dense fog
and stratus has developed this morning, reducing ceilings at both
sites and visibility primarily at KGLD. KMCK currently reporting
IFR conditions while KGLD is currently LIFR. Later this morning,
some slightly drier air will move in from the west, quickly
eroding fog and stratus. During the evening hours, the beginnings
of the highly anticipated weather system begins to make an impact
in terms of widespread moderate/heavy rainfall and thunderstorm
activity. Not expecting any severe storms at this time. In
addition, low level moisture returns, bringing fog and stratus
back with it. South winds will dominate this period but a
significant cold front passage can be expected after 18z tomorrow.
Finally, low level wind shear is possible tonight as a result of
low level jet development. For now, confidence was too low to
place llws into the TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through
     Wednesday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Wednesday night for KSZ001-013.

CO...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for COZ090>092.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for COZ090>092.

     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Wednesday night for COZ090-091.

NE...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through
     Wednesday afternoon for NEZ079>081.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for NEZ079>081.

     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Wednesday night for NEZ079-080.

&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...RRH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
924 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131530-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
924 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2019 /1024 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Dense Fog Advisory is in effect this morning for areas east of
Highway 27.

Moderate to occasional heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Since this rainfall will be
occurring on frozen ground, this could cause flooding, especially
near rivers and smaller streams. A flood watch has been issued for
all areas except northeast Colorado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms will continue across northwest
Kansas and southwest Nebraska during the day Wednesday. Any
additional precipitation will run off, intensifying any flooding
issues.

For Wednesday afternoon and evening, north winds will increase into
the 30 to 50 mph range with gusts 60 to 80 mph possible behind a
cold
front. Strong winds will continue into Thursday with gusts to 55 to
65 mph throughout the day.

Rain will change to snow from northwest to southeast Wednesday
afternoon and evening, earliest over northeastern Colorado. The snow
is expected to be the most intense from the late afternoon into the
nighttime hours. Although some snow can be expected over the entire
area, the highest snow amounts will be along and north of a line
from Flagler, Colorado to Goodland, Kansas to Benkelman, Nebraska.

Blizzard or near blizzard conditions are possible, especially on
from Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours across northeast
Colorado. Travel will become hazardous. Power outages and tree
damage cannot be ruled out as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
849 AM MDT TUE MAR 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     DENSE FOG        LENORA                  39.61N 100.00W
03/12/2019                   NORTON             KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN DENSE
            FOG VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
850 AM MDT TUE MAR 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     DENSE FOG        LENORA                  39.61N 100.0W
03/12/2019                   NORTON             KS   AWOS

            1/4 MI VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG AWOS AT
            NORTON.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
851 AM MDT TUE MAR 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     DENSE FOG        OBERLIN                 39.82N 100.53W
03/12/2019                   DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

            1/4 MI VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG REPORTED BY
            PUBLIC VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
852 AM MDT TUE MAR 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 AM     DENSE FOG        2 E MCCOOK              40.21N 100.59W
03/12/2019                   RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

            1/4 MI VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG AT ASOS
            STATION MCK, MCCOOK AIRPORT.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
920 AM MDT TUE MAR 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     DENSE FOG        LENORA                  39.61N 100.00W
03/12/2019                   NORTON             KS   PUBLIC

            1/4 MILE VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG REPORTED
            FROM PUBLIC VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT TUE MAR 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 AM     DENSE FOG        2 E MCCOOK              40.21N 100.59W
03/12/2019                   RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

            1/4 MI VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG AT ASOS
            STATION MCK, MCCOOK AIRPORT.

0821 AM     DENSE FOG        6 NNW STRATTON          40.23N 101.27W
03/12/2019                   HITCHCOCK          NE   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 1/4 VISIBILITY IN DENSE FOG
            VIA FACEBOOK.

0500 AM     DENSE FOG        LEOTI                   38.48N 101.36W
03/12/2019                   WICHITA            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED.

0255 AM     DENSE FOG        3 N COLBY               39.43N 101.05W
03/12/2019                   THOMAS             KS   AWOS

            AWOS STATION CBK, 2 N COLBY, REPORTS 1/4
            MILE VISIBILITY.

0610 AM     DENSE FOG        10 SSW LEVANT           39.24N 101.23W
03/12/2019                   THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY
            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0717 AM     DENSE FOG        2 ENE OAKLEY            39.13N 100.82W
03/12/2019                   THOMAS             KS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            KDOT WEBCAM AT EXIT 76 I-70 SHOWS 1/4 MILE
            VISIBILITY.

0438 AM     DENSE FOG        1 NNE GOODLAND          39.37N 101.70W
03/12/2019                   SHERMAN            KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION GLD, GOODLAND.

0840 AM     DENSE FOG        1 N HOXIE               39.36N 100.44W
03/12/2019                   SHERIDAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FROM SHERIFFS DISPATCH...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
            A QUARTER TO HALF MILE. HIGHWAYS 83/24
            AFFECTED.

0646 AM     DENSE FOG        2 NNW ATWOOD            39.83N 101.05W
03/12/2019                   RAWLINS            KS   AWOS

            DENSE FOG REPORTED AT ATWOOD AIRPORT.

0821 AM     DENSE FOG        LENORA                  39.61N 100.00W
03/12/2019                   NORTON             KS   PUBLIC

            1/4 MILE VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG REPORTED
            FROM PUBLIC VIA FACEBOOK.

0821 AM     DENSE FOG        LENORA                  39.61N 100.00W
03/12/2019                   NORTON             KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN DENSE
            FOG VIA FACEBOOK.

0847 AM     DENSE FOG        LENORA                  39.61N 100.0W
03/12/2019                   NORTON             KS   AWOS

            1/4 MI VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG AWOS AT
            NORTON.

0753 AM     DENSE FOG        1 NE HILL CITY          39.38N 99.83W
03/12/2019                   GRAHAM             KS   ASOS

            1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN DENSE FOG. ASOS
            STATION HLC, HILL CITY KS AIRPORT.

0740 AM     DENSE FOG        OBERLIN                 39.82N 100.53W
03/12/2019                   DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

            1/4 MI VISIBILITY FROM DENSE FOG REPORTED BY
            PUBLIC VIA FACEBOOK.

0735 AM     DENSE FOG        1 W SAINT FRANCIS       39.77N 101.81W
03/12/2019                   CHEYENNE           KS   MESONET

            1/4 MI VISIBILITY DENSE FOG AT MESONET
            STATION SYF, ST. FRANCIS CITY.

0700 AM     DENSE FOG        JOES                    39.66N 102.68W
03/12/2019                   YUMA               CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN DENSE FOG.

1053 PM     DENSE FOG        4 S BURLINGTON          39.25N 102.28W
03/11/2019                   KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

            KITR REPORTS 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY.

0453 AM     DENSE FOG        4 S BURLINGTON          39.24N 102.29W
03/12/2019                   KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION ITR, BURLINGTON CO AIRPORT.

0744 AM     DENSE FOG        CHEYENNE WELLS          38.82N 102.35W
03/12/2019                   CHEYENNE           CO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CDOT WEBCAM SHOWS 1/4 MI VISIBILITY AT
            CHEYENNE WELLS, CO.

&&