Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
331 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

Surface analysis shows the warm front near to just north of the
KS/NE border, and the dry line near the I-25 corridor. The dry
line/front intersection is between Limon and Fort Morgan.

An MCS continues to slowly progress northeast across NW KS. One
minute satellite imagery shows indications of a strong updraft due
to warmer pockets being seen behind the horseshoe shaped cooling
area in the updraft. Despite updraft divergence being around 100
kts with individual storms in this MCS, hail has not been much of
an issue so far. Am thinking this is due to the cloud cover not
quite clearing enough to allow for more destabilization earlier
this afternoon.  More intense storms are in Southeast Colorado
where the environment has been allowed to warm more.

SPC HREF over the last three runs has continued to indicate the
stronger storms will be moving out of SE CO after 3 PM MT. The
effect of the cloud cover makes me question how much instability
will be available to work with. Storm intensity should peak in the
next couple of hours. Will see if this happens given the cloud
cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

Tonight...a line or broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected to exit the forecast area around or shortly after midnight.
Low temperatures range from the mid 40s to low 50s in far eastern
Colorado to around 60 in Norton and Graham counties.

Monday...its possible for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop in the late afternoon to overnight hours across the far east
and northwest zones. The Storm Prediction Center has areas from near
McCook to Hill City east in a slight risk for severe storms.
Southerly winds increase in the afternoon with gusts in the 25 to 35
mph range along and south of the interstate. High temperatures in
the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures range from the low to mid
40s west, mid 50s east.

Tuesday...general idea is for an upper level low pressure area to
reach southwest Nebraska by the end of the day then into northeast
Nebraska by 12z Wednesday morning. Some wraparound showers and
thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the northwest 1/2 of the
area. Afternoon temperatures will be much cooler with readings
ranging from the low to mid 60s in the west to the upper 70s in
the east. Low temperatures in the low 40s west, low 50s east.

Wednesday...generally dry weather currently expected. High
temperatures in the 60s, low temperatures in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

Thursday...dry weather currently expected. High temperatures in the
low to mid 70s. Lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Friday...some weak disturbances move across the area from the
west/southwest supporting spotty chances for thunderstorms. High
temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures in the mid
40s to around 50 west, mid 50s east.

Saturday...little change from Friday with a chance of afternoon
thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows
in the upper 40s west to mid 50s east.

Sunday...chance of afternoon thunderstorms as weather disturbances
move through from the west. High temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun May 26 2019

KGLD, sub vfr cigs expected from taf issuance through 19z or 20z
with winds from the southeast 10-15kts with higher gusts. From
20z-23z vfr conditions expected with winds increasing from the
south gusting near 30kts. From 23z-01z a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is expected to impact the terminal very low
visibility in moderate to heavy rain, wind gusts in excess of
50kts and possibly some hail. After 02z winds begin the period
from the southeast near 15ks slowly veering to the south around
12kts by 07z then southwest near 10kts by 12z and west under 10kts
around 15z.

KMCK, sub vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about
05z with winds increasing from the southeast gusting near 30kts.
From 00z-02z a line of strong to severe thunderstorms may impact
the terminal with very low visibility in moderate to heavy rain,
wind gusts in excess of 50kts and possibly some hail. After 06z
vfr conditions are expected with winds gradually veering to the
south then southwest at speeds under 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
135 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
135 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019 /235 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage and
intensity through the remainder of the afternoon and into the mid
evening moving in a northeast to east direction. The primary threats
will be hail to three inches in diameter, wind gusts to 75 mph, a few
tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall which may cause flash flooding.
The line or broken line of severe storms is expected to exit the area
around or shortly after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

For Monday, isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the
northern and eastern portions of the area. A few of these storms
could become severe with large hail being the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
410 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

COZ091-092-KSZ027-262230-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-Wallace KS-
410 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE...
SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 430 PM
MDT...

At 410 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Weskan, or 17 miles northeast of Cheyenne Wells,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Weskan and Arapahoe.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for east central
Colorado...and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3886 10233 3915 10211 3914 10205 3913 10205
      3909 10157 3874 10202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 214DEG 60KT 3894 10207

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
446 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

KSZ013-262300-
Sherman KS-
446 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHERMAN COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM MDT...

At 446 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Ruleton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goodland, Ruleton and Edson.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 7 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for northwestern
and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3919 10201 3953 10183 3946 10142 3913 10165
      3913 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 214DEG 21KT 3920 10185

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 PM MDT SUN MAY 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JENNINGS                39.68N 100.29W
05/26/2019                   DECATUR            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTED WATER OVER HIGHWAY 383 IN
            THE TOWN OF JENNINGS.

&&

JN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
501 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

KSZ013-262315-
Sherman KS-
501 PM MDT Sun May 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHERMAN COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM MDT...

At 501 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Goodland, moving north at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goodland, Ruleton and Edson.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 8 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for northwestern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3955 10139 3918 10159 3920 10192 3957 10187
      3957 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 202DEG 41KT 3936 10170

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
613 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

KSZ014-028-029-262330-
Gove KS-Thomas KS-Logan KS-
613 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS...
NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND NORTHWESTERN GOVE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 613 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Oakley, moving north at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colby, Oakley, Monument and Mingo.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 55 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3898 10102 3937 10104 3935 10072 3923 10072
      3897 10079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 184DEG 39KT 3905 10090

024