Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

The long expected cold front has made its way south to almost
clear our CWA. A surface low is forming along the front in Kansas
and helping to slow the front down. North of the front, elevated
convection is expected to erupt this morning near the Nebraska and
Kansas border, with much of the precip possibly landing just on
the Nebraska side, the way it appears, getting some help from the
low-level jet in the matter of some modest low-level convergence.
It looks like there will also be a mid-level low-amplitude piece
of energy traversing the area about the same time. Considering
that PWs are a bit high for this time of year, and the fact that there
may be a little ice left in the ground, along with a fairly
saturated ground to begin with, I would not be entirely surprised
if we had at least some ponding of water if we can really get
some convection going, and it appears by looking at short-term
models, the place to watch this morning will be areas southeast of
the tri-cities in Nebraska, namely the Superior, Hebron, and
Geneva.

Enough instability hangs around to give us a small hailer up to
the size of nickels this morning, especially in the south half of
the CWA. After the low- level jet and associated convection moves
off to the east, our thunder chances decrease dramatically. We
will maintain a pretty stiff northeast breeze today behind the
front, and highs today in the 50s will be a far cry from our 70s
from yesterday. Wind will likely decrease a bit by afternoon.

Models have consistently forecasted a lull in precipitation by
this evening, and I'm continuing to agree.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

As another shortwave trough tries to pull out of the Rockies onto
the Plains by Friday morning, isentropic lift will ensue over our
area, with increasing moisture. I expect a resurgence of precip
coming in by Friday morning, and lasting into the evening. A good
punch of cold air advection finally gives us enough cold air to
produce some snow by Friday evening, but by then, most of the
precipitation should be just about done, and snow amounts still
look like they will be an inch or less. Interestingly, the GFS has
bumped up snow amounts a tad in our northern CWA, while the ECMWF
backed off from its previous run, and the NAM keeps most of the
major accumulating snow well to our northwest. One general theme
from models is clear, and that the most snow stays west and
northwest of us.

Its looking more and more like this cold snap will be rather
short-lived before our next nice rebound next week. We will still
struggle to top 40 degrees for Friday and Saturday, but by Monday,
we should be hitting upper 50s, which is near normal for us, and
we will be back into the 60s and 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday as
an amplified upper ridge moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase this morning,
but should remain mostly to the south of the terminals, although
the terminals will be on the normal fringe of convection. Ceilings
will likely dip to MVFR during the day for a short time until the
convection moves off to the east by late afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
854 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     HAIL             4 W DAVENPORT           40.31N 97.89W
03/28/2019  E1.75 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTD FM
            RADAR.

&&

KELLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
904 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HAIL             1 SW INAVALE            40.09N 98.65W
03/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

MER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
919 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HAIL             CARLETON                40.31N 97.68W
03/28/2019  M1.00 INCH       THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME EST FM RADAR.

&&

KELLEY

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