Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

The long expected cold front has made its way south to almost
clear our CWA. A surface low is forming along the front in Kansas
and helping to slow the front down. North of the front, elevated
convection is expected to erupt this morning near the Nebraska and
Kansas border, with much of the precip possibly landing just on
the Nebraska side, the way it appears, getting some help from the
low-level jet in the matter of some modest low-level convergence.
It looks like there will also be a mid-level low-amplitude piece
of energy traversing the area about the same time. Considering
that PWs are a bit high for this time of year, and the fact that there
may be a little ice left in the ground, along with a fairly
saturated ground to begin with, I would not be entirely surprised
if we had at least some ponding of water if we can really get
some convection going, and it appears by looking at short-term
models, the place to watch this morning will be areas southeast of
the tri-cities in Nebraska, namely the Superior, Hebron, and
Geneva.

Enough instability hangs around to give us a small hailer up to
the size of nickels this morning, especially in the south half of
the CWA. After the low- level jet and associated convection moves
off to the east, our thunder chances decrease dramatically. We
will maintain a pretty stiff northeast breeze today behind the
front, and highs today in the 50s will be a far cry from our 70s
from yesterday. Wind will likely decrease a bit by afternoon.

Models have consistently forecasted a lull in precipitation by
this evening, and I'm continuing to agree.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

As another shortwave trough tries to pull out of the Rockies onto
the Plains by Friday morning, isentropic lift will ensue over our
area, with increasing moisture. I expect a resurgence of precip
coming in by Friday morning, and lasting into the evening. A good
punch of cold air advection finally gives us enough cold air to
produce some snow by Friday evening, but by then, most of the
precipitation should be just about done, and snow amounts still
look like they will be an inch or less. Interestingly, the GFS has
bumped up snow amounts a tad in our northern CWA, while the ECMWF
backed off from its previous run, and the NAM keeps most of the
major accumulating snow well to our northwest. One general theme
from models is clear, and that the most snow stays west and
northwest of us.

Its looking more and more like this cold snap will be rather
short-lived before our next nice rebound next week. We will still
struggle to top 40 degrees for Friday and Saturday, but by Monday,
we should be hitting upper 50s, which is near normal for us, and
we will be back into the 60s and 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday as
an amplified upper ridge moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase this morning,
but should remain mostly to the south of the terminals, although
the terminals will be on the normal fringe of convection. Ceilings
will likely dip to MVFR during the day for a short time until the
convection moves off to the east by late afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
636 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
291200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
636 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will continue today, with the better chances
mainly along and south of Interstate 80 and into north central
Kansas. There will again be the potential for a few stronger
storms, capable of producing hail near the size of nickels and
wind gusts near 40 MPH, mostly south of Highway 6. Some storms
could produce heavy rain and produce localized flooding,
especially areas south of Highway 6 and east of Highway 281.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Accumulating snow is possible primarily Friday night into
Saturday morning. Snow amounts are currently forecast to be an
inch or less, but be sure to monitor the forecast for any possible
changes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight, but any
reports of hail, strong winds, and flooding would be appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Heinlein

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
823 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

NEZ082-083-281400-
Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
823 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FURNAS AND WEST CENTRAL
HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

At 823 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Beaver City, or 23 miles north of Norton, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Beaver City, Stamford, Edison, Hendley and Hollinger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4005 9996 4024 9999 4032 9962 4008 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 1323Z 259DEG 25KT 4017 9984

Fay

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
832 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HAIL             FRANKLIN                40.10N 98.95W
03/28/2019  E0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
852 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     HAIL             1 WSW INAVALE           40.09N 98.65W
03/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            NE   PUBLIC

&&

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
854 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     HAIL             4 W DAVENPORT           40.31N 97.89W
03/28/2019  E1.75 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTD FM
            RADAR.

&&

KELLEY