River Flood Warning 40, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
113 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

A few thunderstorms are starting to develop across the western part
of the forecast area this afternoon. Satellite shows some stronger
cumulus starting to develop in the southwest part of the area.

The short term models have been showing a couple rounds of
thunderstorms. The first is this afternoon and into the evening
hours, the activity we are starting to see now. The instability is
expected to increase during the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Expect some severe weather with these storms as they move
through. In addition, the movement should be slow enough to bring
some good rain amounts.

Then, this evening and overnight, expect there to be another round
of thunderstorms that move in from the west. These will be moving a
little faster, but expect there to be some larger rain amounts. They
will be more linear in nature and could produce some wind gusts as
well as the heavier rains. Almost all of the models have heavy rain
in them and expect there to be some heavier pockets or rain. The
areas with the heaviest rain will be the areas that have the
combination of afternoon convection and more overnight.

Models are kind of all over for ending the precipitation. A few have
it ending overnight tonight, but there are some that continue to
have a little linger in the east in the morning. Expect there will
be a little left in the morning, but it should end pretty quickly.
Surface high pressure will build into the area on Tuesday. Clouds
should clear out behind the thunderstorms and mostly sunny skies are
expected Tuesday. Temperatures should get into the upper 80s or
lower 90s. As warm as it is getting this afternoon with cloud cover,
will need to look at temperatures tomorrow to see if they are too
low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

There is a weak upper level wave that moves into the area Tuesday
night. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms that develop
in the west and move through. Some models have some, while others do
not. Have some small PoPs, but not sure how much there will be.

A surface high builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday
night before moving to the east on Thursday. Expect there to be
mostly clear skies and temperatures maybe a little below normal.

An upper level ridge builds just to the west of the area Wednesday
through Saturday. Temperatures start to warm up later in the week.
Despite the ridge, there are still a few persistent, mainly weak
upper level waves that try to move over the ridge. Thursday night
through Saturday night, there will be some mainly on and off chances
for thunderstorms. The best chances appear to be Friday and Saturday
evenings, for the most part.

Sunday through Monday the ridge continues around the area. Expecting
dry conditions and warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Ongoing line of convection will continue to spread E over the next
few hrs. Thus, should see improving conditions at EAR shortly.
MVFR vsby and cigs possible with strongest cores in the line.
Should see some improving cigs behind the line, at least for a
time, though there are some indications we could see some patchy
fog/low clds redevelop in area of clearing skies and lgt winds.
Have hinted at this with SCT group for now. Winds are chaotic for
the time being, but generally expect a W wind shift along start of
line at GRI, before weakening and bec lgt and vrbl for a time
behind the line. A general SE wind should resume by dawn.

The daytime hrs should feature VFR conditions, though some FEW-SCT
CU is possible with bases 2-4K ft. Winds will veer from S to W.

Finally, may see some convection and a wind shift to NW after 03Z
with arrival of cold front, but held off on formal inclusion, for
now, given its near end of period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ060-061-
     072>076-082>087.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007.

&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Thies

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
091200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1144 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight. The
primary hazards are hail near the size of golf balls, wind gusts
up to 70 MPH, and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado or two are
possible into the evening hours.

Significant flash flooding is ongoing for much of the area west of
Highway 281. Additional heavy rain overnight will exacerbate
ongoing issues and lead to an expansion of flash flooding further
east with time. Please see Flash Flood Warning messages for
further information. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through
the overnight for areas south of a line from Ravenna to Hebron in
Nebraska, and along and north of Highway 36 in north central
Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Significant flooding will likely continue for the next several
days due to runoff from recent heavy rain. Please see individual
Flood statements for additional information.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and again
Thursday night through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Thies

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
120 AM CDT TUE JUL 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LEXINGTON AIRPORT       40.79N 99.77W
07/09/2019  M5.74 INCH       DAWSON             NE   AWOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN REPORT FROM
            LEXINGTON AIRPORT FROM ESTIMATED TO
            MEASURED. CALENDAR DAY TOTAL.

&&

JMBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
121 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-090700-
Rooks KS-Jewell KS-Phillips KS-Smith KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-
121 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MITCHELL...EASTERN
ROOKS...SOUTHWESTERN JEWELL...SOUTHERN SMITH...OSBORNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 121 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Kirwin to near Woodston to 6 miles south
of Codell. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Osborne, Downs, Cawker City, Natoma, Tipton, Kirwin, Woodston,
Gaylord, Alton, Portis, Hunter, Harlan, Cedar and Codell.

LAT...LON 3913 9925 3940 9919 3972 9920 3973 9836
      3935 9836 3922 9839 3922 9849 3913 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 274DEG 36KT 3964 9911 3940 9910 3910 9917

Heinlein

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