Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
324 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

The main rain shield has moved to the north of the forecast area
this afternoon. There are some showers that have developed along and
north of the state line. To the south of the state line, there is
some sunshine.

All of this sets things up for the afternoon. The sun in north
central Kansas will create some instability and there will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of
the surface low and warm front. There is still enough CAPE that
there could be some strong to severe thunderstorms for a time this
afternoon. The window of opportunity is somewhat small with the sun
going down and losing the heating.

The next concern becomes the change over to snow. Models are fairly
consistent this afternoon that the cold air starts to move into the
area around dark tonight, then spreads across the area during the
night. There could be a few patches of freezing rain as the
precipitation changes from rain to snow tonight. With the wind, when
there is snow, there will be blowing snow which will reduce
visibility. The snow will continue through much of the night for
much of the Nebraska portion of the forecast area.

Models are also fairly consistent with the heavier snow ending
during the morning and mainly lighter snow during the afternoon
before coming to an end.

Another consideration will be when the surface low moves through the
forecast area this afternoon and evening, the winds will turn to the
north or northwest and start to increase. Winds at 850mb are 50 to
65 knots this evening and into Thursday. Expect very windy
conditions across the area through Thursday. The wind will cause
areas of blowing snow in the area with the greatest snowfall.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

The snow should have ended during the afternoon Thursday but a
couple of the models continue to have some light precipitation
nearby Thursday night. Expect that at most, there will only be some
flurries for the majority of the area and ending early in the
evening. The skies should be clearing during the night. Winds are
expected to be breezy through the night.

Friday through Monday is expected to be a dry period. There will be
a surface high that moves through the area and temperatures are
expected be around normal for this time of year.

The next upper level wave will affect the area Monday night into
Wednesday. There could be some on and off precipitation. With the
temperatures warmer during the day and cooler at night it could be
some rain and snow at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

The main rain shield has moved out, but there will be showers
developing this afternoon. Precipitation will mix with or change
to snow during the evening, and could be done toward the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ041-
     047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
     NEZ041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT
     Thursday for NEZ039-040-046-060-061-072>074.

     High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday
     for NEZ082>084.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT
     Thursday for NEZ082>084.

KS...High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ007-019.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
     KSZ007.

     High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday
     for KSZ005-006-017-018.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT
     Thursday for KSZ005-006.

&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1010 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
141200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1010 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A powerful storm system will continue to promote multiple weather
concerns.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire outlook area
through tonight. Various Flood Warnings and Advisories are in
effect. Please refer to the Watch, Warning and Advisory statements
for more details.

Thunderstorms remain possible through early this evening across
the area. While most storms should not be severe, there is a
Marginal Risk that a few strong to severe storms could develop
mainly between 3 and 8 PM. Should this occur, the main threats
would include hail to around quarter size and wind gusts to
around 60 MPH. A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out,
but this is considered a very small possibility.

In addition today, south-southeast winds will become fairly
strong in north central Kansas, with sustained speeds around 30
MPH and gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.

Late tonight into Thursday, rain will change to snow from west
to east. Total snow accumulations through Thursday of generally
1 to 3 inches are expected across most of the outlook area. No
matter how much snow falls, significant visibility reductions are
likely, as the entire outlook area will observe intense northwest
winds, gusting to around 65 MPH. As a result of these snow and
high wind concerns, the entire outlook area is under a
combination of Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories
and High Wind Warnings. Please refer to these statements for more
information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday into Thursday evening, the entire outlook area remains
under a combination of Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather
Advisories and High Wind Warnings. Please refer to these
statements for more information.

Flooding of various rivers, streams and low-lying areas will
likely continue through Thursday, and perhaps for a few days
beyond that, until water levels subside.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but any
reports of flooding, severe thunderstorm activity, or snow totals
would be appreciated over the next few days.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1128 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GREELEY                 41.55N 98.53W
03/13/2019  M2.20 INCH       GREELEY            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL AT OF 11:15AM. 6 INCHES OF SNOW
            DEPTH MELTED WITH RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

&&