Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 AM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect an increase in afternoon chances for showers
and thunderstorms across northern Arizona through Thursday, before
chances decrease through Saturday. Otherwise, above normal
daytime temperatures and generally light winds are forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
We are already seen isolated thunderstorms west of Seligman and
near Bitter Springs. We have increased storm chances this
afternoon for areas along and east or north of a line from Grey
Mountain-Flagstaff-White Mountains per latest HRRR and UA WRF
radar trends. Moisture and instability are decreasing as one
heads towards the 4 corners. We can add gusty outflow winds as
another storm hazards this afternoon, especially across the
Little Colorado River Valley.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/...

Today...High temperatures today will be more moderate than the
record breaking conditions from earlier this work week. Although,
daytime temperatures will still be above average for the end of
August. An increase in monsoonal moisture will bring chances of
showers and thunderstorms to many locations today. Look for
convective initiation to begin in the late morning over the White
Mountains and the higher mountain peaks. Forecast upper-air
soundings show a general west to northwesterly mean wind this
afternoon and evening, which will create an east to southeastward
direction for storm movement. Localized heavy rainfall and hail
are a couple of the hazards that are possible with thunderstorms
today.

Thursday - Saturday...As the center of the high pressure shifts
westward again tonight into Thursday towards southern California,
slightly drier air will be transported into the County Warning
Area. There will be enough moisture in the lower and mid- levels
of the atmosphere that chances for showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast through Saturday. The greatest chances for
precipitation in this period will be Thursday and decrease each
day through Saturday. There could be slight variations in the PoPs
within this period as guidance continues to come into further
alignment where the deepest moisture and instability will set up.
Stay tuned.

Sunday & Beyond...The return of monsoonal moisture looks to be
setting up again on Sunday. Chances for thunderstorms and showers
on Sunday remain similar to previous forecasts, but were expanded
westward slightly towards west-central Coconino County. Long-
range guidance begins to diverge by Tuesday mid-day on the
placement of a trough setting up in the Pacific Northwest. This
will continue to be monitored and could impact how long the
moisture remains over northern Arizona next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Look for mostly VFR conditions
today with generally westerly winds of 10G20KT through the
afternoon, the exception being areas of MVFR conditions and 40 kt
outflow winds near convective activity. A few thunderstorms have
already kicked off this morning over northwestern Arizona indicating
the unstable airmass over the area. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of northern AZ to the southwest of the
line KPGA-KRQE and numerous storms likely over the higher terrain of
mountains and ridges. These storms will continue through about 03
Thursday. Winds will become light and variable around sunset with
some lingering gusts in the Little Colorado Valley until 08Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
today, with storm chances beginning to diminish again on Thursday.
Daytime temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees above normal.

Friday through Sunday...Storm coverage is expected to be limited on
Friday and Saturday, with continued well above normal daytime
temperatures. Storm coverage may begin to increase again on Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL/NL
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

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