Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
326 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Ongoing convective activity from this morning, continues to slowly
push eastward as we head through the afternoon with marginally
severe storms remaining possible.

Our next complex of storms will impact the region later this
afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through the
area. Ahead of the front, mixing ratios of 12.5 to 13.5 g/Kg and dew
points in the middle to upper 60s will enhance instability.
Effective layer bulk shear is expected to be in the 40 to 45 knot
range ahead of the theta-e boundary, giving us a chance for either
embedded supercells or supercell/multicell cluster hybrid-mode
storms initially early this afternoon. Progression into linear mode
will be rapid, possibly occuring prior to moving into the CWA.

MLCAPE levels will top out just below 4000 J/Kg, thus plenty of
instability remains available heading into this evening. The best
chance for severe thunderstorms will occur in the Devils Lake Basin
from around 5pm onward through about 7pm, progressing eastward into
the Red River Valley from about 7pm onward. Risks will include large
hail, especially for the Devils Lake Basin, damaging wind gusts, and
possibly tornadoes (along a possible QLCS), possibly pushing into
northwestern Minnesota before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

High confidence in slow moving storm complex to impact the
northern half of the area tonight with the severe potential
mentioned in the mesoscale discussion. With PWATS greater than
1.5 inches and ABR/BIS soundings indicating 150 to 200 percent
above normal values storms will be very efficient rainfall
makers. Given these conditions and the slow moving forcing from
the upper low and embedded short wave will see a line of storms
train as they propagate slowly east southeast this evening into
the overnight. This results in a widespread 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall possible across the northern half of the FA with an inch
or less for areas along and south of I-94 through the noon hour
Saturday.

With the upper low slowly lifting northeast across southern
Manitoba and westerly wind shift or cold front pushing across the
FA tomorrow morning into the afternoon will see storm coverage
increase early in the afternoon Saturday with another round of
storms possible. Some storms could become severe with wind gusts
to 60mph and hail up to an inch in NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Sunday and Monday...Upper level trough currently over southern
ID will move into Ontario by 12Z Sun. Wrap around precip over the
northeast zones will move north and east out of the area Sun.
Short wavelength ridge will move across the Red River Valley Mon.
Quiescent weather is expected Mon.

Tue - Fri

Long wave trough over central Canada and the Northern Plains will
shift into Hudson Bay. Long wave ridge over the eastern Pacific will
build north into the Gulf of AK. Downstream long wave trough will
dig into the West Coast. Long wave ridge over the southeast US
builds farther north into the mid Atlantic states.  Southwest flow
aloft develops over the Northern Plains by Fri.

The operational models have a cutoff low over the Desert Southwest
will get kicked out to the Northern Plains on Fri as another trough
will drop into the Desert Southwest. GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean
precip agree reasonably well for next Fri. The ECMWF and GFS
operational models are in good agreement through Wed. The GFS
becomes the faster model thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Winds and storms will be the major impact over the TAF period.
Warm front near TVF will continue to bring thunder to the area for
the early afternoon. South winds will continue to gust to around
25kts in the valley this afternoon into the evening. As line of
storms develops to the west it will move into the DVL area around
00Z and then GFK in the 02 to 04Z time frame based on the latest
guidance. A line of storms will gradually move east overnight.
Westerly winds will develop tomorrow with gusts in the 20 to 25kt
range again. MVFR CIGs may develop overnight behind the storms and
would linger into the late morning hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

MESOSCALE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
420 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-210930-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
420 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southeast North
Dakota before sunrise this morning. The main hazard will be golf
ball sized hail.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and tonight. The main hazards will be hail up to 2 inches in
diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph. Isolated tornadoes
are also possible. Very heavy rainfall is also possible with the
storms, which may result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

For areas along and east of the Red River Valley, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning. Then by early
afternoon, the isolated severe thunderstorm threat should shift
into areas east of the Red River Valley. Quarter sized hail and
wind gusts to 60 mph would be the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed late this afternoon and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
236 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

MNZ005-006-009-202030-
North Beltrami MN-Roseau MN-Lake Of The Woods MN-
236 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROSEAU...NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI
AND WESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms centered over Norris Camp, or 28 miles southeast of
Roseau, moving north at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roseau, Warroad, Badger, Arnesen, Springsteel Island, Williams and
Roosevelt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4932 9481 4929 9482 4918 9479 4909 9475
      4839 9499 4853 9560 4854 9560 4854 9566
      4863 9607 4900 9597 4900 9515 4934 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 190DEG 43KT 4862 9524

JR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
337 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

MNZ006-202130-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
337 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carp, or 52 miles east of Roseau, moving north at 30 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pitt around 355 PM CDT.
  Baudette around 400 PM CDT.
  Wheelers Point around 415 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4838 9445 4841 9494 4918 9508 4913 9477
      4888 9468 4883 9471 4878 9469 4872 9459
      4869 9444 4870 9443 4843 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 200DEG 27KT 4856 9470

JR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
426 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

MNZ006-202230-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
426 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms centered over Carp, or 57 miles east of Roseau, moving
north at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Baudette around 455 PM CDT.
  Clementson around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

If on or near Lake of the Woods, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4838 9443 4840 9493 4916 9508 4915 9478
      4888 9468 4883 9471 4878 9469 4872 9459
      4869 9444 4870 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 199DEG 22KT 4852 9461

BP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
432 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDZ014-015-202200-
Benson ND-Ramsey ND-
432 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BENSON AND WEST CENTRAL
RAMSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Minnewaukan, or 18 miles west of Devils Lake, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Minnewaukan around 440 PM CDT.
  Brinsmade around 450 PM CDT.
  Churchs Ferry and Penn around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4793 9915 4798 9941 4829 9933 4827 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 193DEG 27KT 4803 9926

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
433 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     BAUDETTE                48.71N 94.59W
09/20/2019  M62 MPH          LAKE OF THE WOODS  MN   ASOS

&&

BWASILEW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
452 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDZ014-202215-
Benson ND-
452 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BENSON COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maddock, or 31 miles west of Devils Lake, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Flora around 455 PM CDT.
  Harlow and Brinsmade around 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4830 9962 4828 9920 4821 9920 4785 9941
      4785 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 199DEG 23KT 4796 9952

BP