Tornado Warning 23, NWS Grand Forks, ND

845 
WWUS53 KFGF 202314
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
614 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDC019-095-202345-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190920T2345Z/
Towner ND-Cavalier ND-
614 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
TOWNER AND NORTHWESTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES...
    
At 613 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Rocklake, or 35 miles west of Langdon, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...TORNADO and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Sarles around 625 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 4873 9943 4900 9929 4900 9892 4899 9889
      4860 9923 4862 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 216DEG 46KT 4881 9914 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

BP

745 
WWUS53 KFGF 202324
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
624 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDC019-095-202334-
/O.CAN.KFGF.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190920T2345Z/
Towner ND-Cavalier ND-
624 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN TOWNER AND NORTHWESTERN CAVALIER
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Grand Forks.

LAT...LON 4873 9943 4900 9929 4900 9892 4899 9889
      4860 9923 4862 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 204DEG 23KT 4888 9909 

$$

BP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
326 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Ongoing convective activity from this morning, continues to slowly
push eastward as we head through the afternoon with marginally
severe storms remaining possible.

Our next complex of storms will impact the region later this
afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through the
area. Ahead of the front, mixing ratios of 12.5 to 13.5 g/Kg and dew
points in the middle to upper 60s will enhance instability.
Effective layer bulk shear is expected to be in the 40 to 45 knot
range ahead of the theta-e boundary, giving us a chance for either
embedded supercells or supercell/multicell cluster hybrid-mode
storms initially early this afternoon. Progression into linear mode
will be rapid, possibly occuring prior to moving into the CWA.

MLCAPE levels will top out just below 4000 J/Kg, thus plenty of
instability remains available heading into this evening. The best
chance for severe thunderstorms will occur in the Devils Lake Basin
from around 5pm onward through about 7pm, progressing eastward into
the Red River Valley from about 7pm onward. Risks will include large
hail, especially for the Devils Lake Basin, damaging wind gusts, and
possibly tornadoes (along a possible QLCS), possibly pushing into
northwestern Minnesota before midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

High confidence in slow moving storm complex to impact the
northern half of the area tonight with the severe potential
mentioned in the mesoscale discussion. With PWATS greater than
1.5 inches and ABR/BIS soundings indicating 150 to 200 percent
above normal values storms will be very efficient rainfall
makers. Given these conditions and the slow moving forcing from
the upper low and embedded short wave will see a line of storms
train as they propagate slowly east southeast this evening into
the overnight. This results in a widespread 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall possible across the northern half of the FA with an inch
or less for areas along and south of I-94 through the noon hour
Saturday.

With the upper low slowly lifting northeast across southern
Manitoba and westerly wind shift or cold front pushing across the
FA tomorrow morning into the afternoon will see storm coverage
increase early in the afternoon Saturday with another round of
storms possible. Some storms could become severe with wind gusts
to 60mph and hail up to an inch in NW MN.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Sunday and Monday...Upper level trough currently over southern
ID will move into Ontario by 12Z Sun. Wrap around precip over the
northeast zones will move north and east out of the area Sun.
Short wavelength ridge will move across the Red River Valley Mon.
Quiescent weather is expected Mon.

Tue - Fri

Long wave trough over central Canada and the Northern Plains will
shift into Hudson Bay. Long wave ridge over the eastern Pacific will
build north into the Gulf of AK. Downstream long wave trough will
dig into the West Coast. Long wave ridge over the southeast US
builds farther north into the mid Atlantic states.  Southwest flow
aloft develops over the Northern Plains by Fri.

The operational models have a cutoff low over the Desert Southwest
will get kicked out to the Northern Plains on Fri as another trough
will drop into the Desert Southwest. GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean
precip agree reasonably well for next Fri. The ECMWF and GFS
operational models are in good agreement through Wed. The GFS
becomes the faster model thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Winds and storms will be the major impact over the TAF period.
Warm front near TVF will continue to bring thunder to the area for
the early afternoon. South winds will continue to gust to around
25kts in the valley this afternoon into the evening. As line of
storms develops to the west it will move into the DVL area around
00Z and then GFK in the 02 to 04Z time frame based on the latest
guidance. A line of storms will gradually move east overnight.
Westerly winds will develop tomorrow with gusts in the 20 to 25kt
range again. MVFR CIGs may develop overnight behind the storms and
would linger into the late morning hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

MESOSCALE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
420 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-210930-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
420 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across southeast North
Dakota before sunrise this morning. The main hazard will be golf
ball sized hail.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and tonight. The main hazards will be hail up to 2 inches in
diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph. Isolated tornadoes
are also possible. Very heavy rainfall is also possible with the
storms, which may result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

For areas along and east of the Red River Valley, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible early Saturday morning. Then by early
afternoon, the isolated severe thunderstorm threat should shift
into areas east of the Red River Valley. Quarter sized hail and
wind gusts to 60 mph would be the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed late this afternoon and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
452 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDZ014-202215-
Benson ND-
452 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BENSON COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maddock, or 31 miles west of Devils Lake, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Flora around 455 PM CDT.
  Harlow and Brinsmade around 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4830 9962 4828 9920 4821 9920 4785 9941
      4785 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 199DEG 23KT 4796 9952

BP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
543 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDZ007-008-202315-
Pembina ND-Cavalier ND-
543 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CAVALIER AND PEMBINA
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cavalier to Milton. Movement was north at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cavalier, Walhalla, Pembina, Neche, Crystal, Mountain and Hensel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4900 9723 4895 9724 4891 9721 4889 9719
      4889 9720 4888 9720 4888 9718 4886 9719
      4884 9717 4882 9719 4881 9716 4870 9734
      4854 9770 4855 9811 4888 9813 4900 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 181DEG 19KT 4881 9756 4862 9802

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
546 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             2 N MADDOCK             47.99N 99.53W
09/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       Benson             ND   MESONET

            WEBCAM VIDEO FROM AN NDAWN SITE SHOWING HAIL OF DIMES TO
            QUARTERS POSTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

BWASILEW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
550 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDZ006-202330-
Towner ND-
550 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TOWNER COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 549 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bisbee, or 44 miles northwest of Devils Lake, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bisbee, Rocklake, Hansboro, Perth, Arndt, Amourdale and Considine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4900 9953 4900 9900 4894 9900 4849 9931
      4850 9950 4872 9949 4872 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 214DEG 39KT 4865 9941

BP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
552 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDZ014-202330-
Benson ND-
552 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Heimdal, or 38 miles southwest of Devils Lake, moving north at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maddock, Esmond, Harlow and Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4796 9981 4819 9977 4818 9932 4785 9949
      4785 9981
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 186DEG 19KT 4788 9964

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
557 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             EDINBURG                48.50N 97.86W
09/20/2019  E0.75 INCH       WALSH              ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL LESS THAN QUARTER-SIZED IN TOWN NEAR DIME-SIZED

&&

BWASILEW