Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
333 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Sfc low west of Bismarck at 20z and this will move toward GFK this
evening. Sufficient clearing is occurring in SE ND and temps
rising into the middle 60s. As anticipated there is an uptick in
showers and a few t-storms west of Jamestown. 1000-1200 j/kg cape
expected in this clearing area thru the early evening with HREF
indicating updraft helicity sufficient for strong to briefly
severe level storms with target area being Jamestown, Fargo,
Cooperstown, Mayville, Ada, Mahnomen thru the early evening.
Updated HWO and social media graphic to indicate potential for
strong storms.

Lingering showers will be over NE ND this evening and overnight in
NW MN.

As upper low moves north of the area Saturday sfc-700 mb winds
will turn northerly and there is an area of 850 mb moisture with
likely stratocu which will remain over the area Saturday. Some
clearing likely in the aftn from the west, but not likely to reach
east of the Red until evening. Therefore coolest temps Saturday
east of the Red River with highs upper 50s/around 60. Lingering
shower chance possible Lake of the Woods/Red Lake areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

An active and cooler than normal pattern will continue for the end
of the weekend and into next week.

Sunday through Monday...

A split flow upper level regime is expected to develop over North
America this weekend with a weak troughing over the southwestern
CONUS and northeast Canada. Nearly zonal flow over the WY/MT Rockies
will promote lee troughing and decent warm/moist return flow into
the Northern Plains with temperatures/dewpoints in the 70s/50s by
Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for thunderstorms across
western/central ND during the afternoon Sunday with showers and a
few weak thunderstorms Sunday night and into the day Monday for
eastern ND/northwest MN as an upper level shortwave propagates
southward through the region. Widespread rainfall accumulations on
the order of a few tenths of an inch are most likely by Monday night
per ensemble guidance, but exact locations of the heaviest rainfall
remains uncertain.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Slightly warmer temperatures in the 70s are expected Tuesday
afternoon as skies begin to clear out after scattered morning
showers. Rain chances return for Wednesday as a cold front
associated with a second Canadian clipper low pushes southeastward
through the region. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out with this
frontal passage, but no severe weather is expected at this time.
Drier but cool conditions should prevail for Thursday as surface
high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will remain well
below seasonal normals with Thursday highs only expected to reach
the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Most of the area in IFR to low end MVFR cigs thru the
aftn/tonight. Sfc low will track from west of BIS to GFK to north
of BJI thru tonight. South of this low a period of higher ceilings
likey, possibly into VFR range. In this area though isold/sct
t-storms possible. Did include VCTS in FAR/BJI TAFs. GFK close
though but left out.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...Riddle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
315 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

MNZ004>008-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-054-252015-
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-
Nelson-Western Walsh County-
315 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening over
northeastern North Dakota. The risk of widespread hazardous
weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ001>003-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ027>030-038-039-049-
052-053-252015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Grand Forks-Griggs-
Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
315 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into the
evening. A few strong storms are possible as well with risk of
hail to nickels and gusty winds to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening over
eastern North Dakota. The risk of widespread hazardous weather is
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

dtr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

NDZ038-242245-
Barnes ND-
506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BARNES COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leal, or 21 miles northwest of Valley City, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Dime sized hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Leal around 510 PM CDT.
  Rogers around 515 PM CDT.
  Dazey around 520 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4724 9831 4714 9792 4697 9844 4698 9845
      4708 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 240DEG 49KT 4705 9841

GG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
528 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TORNADO          2 NE LEAL               47.13N 98.28W
05/24/2019                   Barnes             ND   911 CALL CENTER

            TORNADO REPORTED. BUILDING DAMAGE OCCURRING.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
609 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N BALD HILL DAM       47.05N 98.08W
05/24/2019                   Barnes             ND   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD BY CORP OF ENGINEERS AT BALDHILL
            DAM RELAYED BY VALLEY CITY PSAP

&&

NC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
614 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             15 N VALLEY CITY        47.14N 98.01W
05/24/2019  E1.00 INCH       Barnes             ND   911 CALL CENTER

&&

NC