Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Weak frontal boundary continues to sag south across far northern GA
this afternoon. The front will move slowly southward overnight, and
should stall across central portions of the CWFA overnight or into
tomorrow. In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow will allow several
pieces of shortwave energy to move quickly east within the flow,
interacting with the stalled boundary.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for
the next two days. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but
a few stronger storms or an isolated severe storm will be possible.
Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be possible with the
stronger storms. In addition, PWATs of 2"+ with BL winds of less than
15kt will allow for slow moving heavy rainers.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

To start the new week, a potential tropical low pressure system,
currently Invest 98L with a 70% chance of development over the next
48 hours, will be making its way northward off the southeastern
Atlantic coastline. At the same time, a strong surface high
pressure will be over Maine/New Brunswick and moving eastward. The
high to the NNE and the low to the ESE will form a pressure
gradient with northeasterly winds against the lee side of the
Appalachian Mnts, causing cold air damming and forcing a wedge
front to push through most of the forecast area and replace the
prepositioned stationary front. This will be our best chance of
breaking our current streak of 28 days of temperatures at or above
70 for Atlanta, barring any strong outflows later today. This is
the 13th longest streak of its kind on record going back to 1978.

With the continuing fetch of warm moist air moving overhead from the
Gulf. PWATs around and over 2" are expected through the beginning of
next week. Combined with the extra forcing from the frontal boundary
should create likely rain chances with scattered convective
showers and thunderstorms until the front begins to lift on
Tuesday.

Afterwards, a mid-level trough will sweep across the southeastern
CONUS, returning the forecast area to conditions we've known and
'loved' over the past several weeks. The southwesterly mid-level
flow will continue to bring Gulf moisture into the region,
continuing at least scattered showers and thunderstorms through at
least Wednesday. High pressure is then expected to follow by
Thursday and Friday with at least slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms. It's currently unclear exactly how much drier air
will filter into the forecast area with this next weather pattern
as things diverge within the model guidance, however, as the time
frame gets closer and other synoptic features come and go we
should get a better feel if a break from the rains can be
expected.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Greater cover of shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Activity could
linger well into the evening hours. About the same coverage
expected tomorrow afternoon. Winds will start out on the west
side, but try and go to the NE around 14-15Z tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  87  68  79 /  60  70  60  50
Atlanta         75  89  71  81 /  60  70  60  60
Blairsville     66  81  64  74 /  50  70  60  50
Cartersville    71  89  70  83 /  60  70  50  60
Columbus        75  90  74  87 /  60  60  60  80
Gainesville     72  85  67  79 /  60  70  60  50
Macon           74  91  72  85 /  50  60  60  70
Rome            71  89  70  84 /  50  70  50  70
Peachtree City  73  90  71  83 /  60  70  60  70
Vidalia         74  92  74  89 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1151 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1151 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of north and
central Georgia this afternoon into tonight. A few storms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally
heavy rainfall possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of north
and central Georgia through Thursday...mainly in the afternoons
and evenings. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe
with gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
403 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

GAZ062-232030-
Warren GA-
403 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Warrenton. This storm
was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warrenton, Norwood, Camak, Beall Springs, Reese and Mesena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3335 8256 3329 8271 3344 8278 3353 8262
      3346 8259 3341 8255 3336 8255 3335 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 087DEG 3KT 3340 8265

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
537 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

GAZ006>008-015-232200-
Gilmer GA-Union GA-Lumpkin GA-Fannin GA-
537 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILMER...
SOUTHWESTERN UNION...NORTHWESTERN LUMPKIN AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 536 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cartecay, or 8 miles
southeast of Ellijay...moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Suches, Margret, Camp Merrill, Woods Hole Shelter, Dial, Springer
Mountain Shelter, Pisgah, Stover Creek Shelter, Hawk Mountain
Shelter, Porter Springs, Gaddistown, Gooch Mountain Shelter and Black
Gap Shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3480 8396 3463 8392 3459 8419 3461 8419
      3462 8420 3460 8422 3460 8425 3458 8426
      3458 8429 3471 8437 3485 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 245DEG 16KT 3462 8436

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH