Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
333 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Afternoon, diurnally driven, convection a bit "stunted" so far this
afternoon across the forecast area. 12Z sounding showed ample
moisture and a similar CAPE profile to yesterday. Weak short wave/
mid-level circulation over southeastern Alabama in the base of the
stationary upper trough seems to be concentrating the better
convection to the west of the forecast area. Still expect at least
scattered coverage of convection through the afternoon into the
early evening, especially across the west and north. Weak mid-level
lapse rates should keep chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
fairly limited. Upper trough axis sharpens up a bit over the region
Sunday and we should see better coverage of convection. Lapse rates
are forecast to be a little steeper, but moderate instability at
best and no strong upper forcing should keep severe risk limited
once again. Temperatures remain seasonable.

20

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Relatively wet/active pattern will continue for at least one more
day (Monday), but it does appear that the persistent upper
"troughiness" that's been over the region for days will give way to
more of a "northwest flow" pattern as we head through the work week.

Longwave trough axis expected to finally sweep across the area
Monday which will support higher POPs, especially across the
southern and eastern counties of our area (basically along and
south/east of I-85). Should see some drying / lower chances for
convection Tuesday behind this wave, but NW flow brings a piece of
energy down across the area Wednesday. Additional upper level
disturbances could affect the area Thursday through Saturday,
maintaining at least "chance" (30-50%) POPs across the area.

Temperatures through the week will be warm but hover around normal
for early August.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions expected across the forecast area through 06Z,
outside of scattered convection. Will see areas of MVFR or lower
conditions developing 06Z through 14Z, however impacts at the TAF
sites will be highly dependent on where the heavier precipitation
occurs into this evening. Conditions improving to VFR areawide by 16-
18Z. East winds 4-8kt become more northeast to north and diminish
after 00Z then northwest by 10-12Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to high all elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  87  70  87 /  40  60  50  50
Atlanta         73  85  72  87 /  40  70  50  40
Blairsville     62  79  64  81 /  40  60  40  50
Cartersville    69  86  70  88 /  40  70  40  40
Columbus        72  90  72  89 /  40  60  50  50
Gainesville     70  85  70  86 /  40  60  40  40
Macon           71  88  71  89 /  30  60  60  50
Rome            69  88  70  89 /  40  60  40  40
Peachtree City  70  87  70  88 /  40  60  50  40
Vidalia         72  90  73  92 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across north and
central Georgia. A few storms may become strong to severe with gusty
winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Thunderstorms are expected
to diminish after sunset this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day. A few
storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
628 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ033-034-045-032300-
North Fulton GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
628 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
DEKALB AND WESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 628 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Norcross, or 14 miles
north of Decatur...moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Duluth,
Suwanee, Lilburn, Norcross, Doraville, Berkeley Lake, Tucker and
Mechanicsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3411 8426 3410 8423 3410 8421 3409 8421
      3407 8418 3406 8415 3404 8404 3386 8418
      3394 8438 3412 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 204DEG 16KT 3398 8425

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ079-091-032300-
Marion GA-Talbot GA-
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MARION AND SOUTHWESTERN
TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 629 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Marion Estates, or 12
miles south of Talbotton...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Talbotton, Junction City, Geneva, Box Springs, Marion Estates,
Juniper and Oakland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3249 8466 3249 8464 3253 8464 3253 8465
      3252 8468 3252 8469 3253 8468 3254 8468
      3256 8467 3256 8469 3265 8469 3269 8445
      3244 8445 3241 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 169DEG 9KT 3250 8457

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ043-032300-
Douglas GA-
632 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 632 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Bill Arp, or near
Douglasville...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Douglasville, Villa Rica, Lithia Springs, Winston, Lake Val-Do-Mar,
Chapel Hill, Bill Arp and Fairplay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3373 8490 3378 8490 3377 8485 3379 8473
      3381 8472 3380 8464 3368 8464 3368 8465
      3366 8466 3365 8471 3363 8473 3363 8475
      3362 8476 3361 8486 3373 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 169DEG 9KT 3370 8477

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
633 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ042-032300-
Carroll GA-
633 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Villa Rica, or 11
miles west of Douglasville...moving north at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Villa Rica and Temple.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3372 8506 3372 8505 3381 8505 3380 8497
      3378 8490 3373 8490 3373 8491 3372 8491
      3372 8490 3366 8490 3363 8502 3371 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 162DEG 5KT 3373 8495

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
636 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ066-067-032300-
Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
636 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TROUP AND
SOUTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 636 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Stovall, or 10 miles
southwest of Greenville...moving north at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
LaGrange, Big Springs, Durand, Stovall, Odessadale and Mountville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3312 8477 3290 8474 3287 8488 3287 8496
      3304 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 162DEG 5KT 3295 8488

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
637 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ016-032300-
White GA-
637 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 637 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Helen, or 7 miles
north of Cleveland. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cleveland, Helen, Unicoi State Park, Whitley Gap Shelter,
Robertstown, Anna Ruby Falls, Smithgall Woods Conservation Are,
Sautee and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3477 8365 3477 8364 3473 8362 3472 8364
      3467 8364 3466 8366 3462 8364 3460 8364
      3455 8385 3472 8386 3473 8383 3475 8382
      3479 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 344DEG 2KT 3470 8374

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH